Pouch P17L in Eastern Atlantic -(Now Invest 97L)

[Ivanhater]

I'll go out on a limb here and say that "if" this does develop it's not a central GOM event. JMHO

Given the synoptic pattern advertised..the central Gulf is at the same risk as everyone else, building ridge from the east.

[Kohlecane]

Yeah for some reason, TWC keeps on bringing up Possible threat to US, But honestly this could become a re-curve, based on what I SEE. so im just wondering what models they are looking at to bring this thing close to US

[psyclone]

i'm one of the ones waiting for development first. at this point the burden of proof is on the basin to produce as far as i'm concerned. Kinda boring for weather watchers but, otoh, a very stress-free season thus far.

[cycloneye]

From 2 PM TWD:

WELL DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE IS ACROSS THE ERN TRPCL ATLC ALONG
19N33W TO THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 13N33W MOVING W 15-20 KT.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DISTINGUISHABLE LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW
AROUND THE WAVE AXIS CONCENTRATED AT THE INTERSECTION WITH THE
MONSOON TROUGH. THIS CYCLONIC FLOW IS ALSO EVIDENT IN
SCATTEROMETER DATA. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE EXTENDING TO 20N. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 35W-37W.

[CourierPR]

Yeah for some reason, TWC keeps on bringing up Possible threat to US, But honestly this could become a re-curve, based on what I SEE. so im just wondering what models they are looking at to bring this thing close to US

What models are you seeing that recurve it?

[Aric Dunn]

Yeah for some reason, TWC keeps on bringing up Possible threat to US, But honestly this could become a re-curve, based on what I SEE. so im just wondering what models they are looking at to bring this thing close to US

GFS,EURO, CMC, UKMET ...

[SoupBone]

Yeah for some reason, TWC keeps on bringing up Possible threat to US, But honestly this could become a re-curve, based on what I SEE. so im just wondering what models they are looking at to bring this thing close to US

What models are you seeing that recurve it?

We don't have an established center and it's not even an invest. I'm reserving my worrying until we get these two items.

[Stormcenter]

Well I'm basing my comment on just the recent model trends since really that's all we have to work with right now. We don't have an organized system to track. The trend has seen the models shift eastward and not westward. Of course this could all change but that's how I see it now. IMO

I'll go out on a limb here and say that "if" this does develop it's not a central GOM event. JMHO

Given the synoptic pattern advertised..the central Gulf is at the same risk as everyone else, building ridge from the east.

[southerngale]

Check out this huge, high detail resolution of the disturbance I got from wxrisk.com
Click on the URL to be able to zoom in.

http://1664596.sites.myregisteredsite.com/meteorology/22.jpg

[Portastorm]

Well I'm basing my comment on just the recent model trends since really that's all we have to work with right now. We don't have an organized system to track. The trend has seen the models shift eastward and not westward. Of course this could all change but that's how I see it now. IMO

I'll go out on a limb here and say that "if" this does develop it's not a central GOM event. JMHO

Given the synoptic pattern advertised..the central Gulf is at the same risk as everyone else, building ridge from the east.

Wait a minute, Stormcenter, aren't you the one who yesterday said that we shouldn't be getting worked up over any long-distance model run because it is "a waste of time?" Now you're basing a prediction on "recent model trends." Which is it?

[jlauderdal]

I'll go out on a limb here and say that "if" this does develop it's not a central GOM event. JMHO

i say the "center" passes at least 150 miles to the S of Fort Lauderdale

[BigB0882]

That ridging building in is definitely worrisome, it makes almost everyone at risk depending on when it builds in, especially if there are no troughs coming to pick any storm up, Even if this storm doesn't come to be, that set up is worrisome for the future if it sticks around.

[Kohlecane]

I'll go out on a limb here and say that "if" this does develop it's not a central GOM event. JMHO

i say the "center" passes at least 150 miles to the S of Fort Lauderdale

Based On what madel, i live in LADY DALE

[Blown Away]

I'll go out on a limb here and say that "if" this does develop it's not a central GOM event. JMHO

i say the "center" passes at least 150 miles to the S of Fort Lauderdale

I agree with you if this system is not at least a TS by the time it reaches 65W, if it deepens before 65W it may go down Broward Boulevard.

[fwbbreeze]

I'll go out on a limb here and say that "if" this does develop it's not a central GOM event. JMHO

Given the synoptic pattern advertised..the central Gulf is at the same risk as everyone else, building ridge from the east.

[/quote]

Wait a minute, Stormcenter, aren't you the one who yesterday said that we shouldn't be getting worked up over any long-distance model run because it is "a waste of time?" Now you're basing a prediction on "recent model trends." Which is it? [/quote]


I agree Ivan! I come on storm2k to learn and discuss. What we have is a group of models showing a certain atmospheric setup that is conducive for a storm to form and track westward. All this conjecture about where it will end up is pointless, but what is not pointless is discussing what is happening right now.

[Ivanhater]

12z Euro...120 hours. Over PR



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[Ivanhater]

144 hours....Shredded by Hispaniola



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[Ivanhater]

168 hours...not much left over Eastern Cuba

[CourierPR]

144 hours....Shredded by Hispaniola

http://img811.imageshack.us/img811/2360/12zeurotropical850mbvorn.gif

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

What's that system I see east of the Antilles on that run?

[caneseddy]

168 hours...not much left over Eastern Cuba

The 12z run yesterday also showed this with this system..now watch the 00z run pick it up again as a strong storm