ATL: SANDY - Remnants - Discussion

[TheEuropean]

Not a hurricane at 5am, but very near...

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM SANDY ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
500 AM EDT WED OCT 24 2012

...SANDY CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES A LITTLE FASTER
TOWARD JAMAICA...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR SOUTHEAST FLORIDA. AND THE
UPPER KEYS...

SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.3N 77.0W
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM S OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 295 MI...475 KM SSW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES

[somethingfunny]

A large system.

[jlauderdal]

SSD now at T4.0:

SANDY 18L T4.0/4.0 24/0545Z Atlantic

That would make Sandy a hurricane.

wind speed makes a hurricane?

[somethingfunny]

SSD now at T4.0:

SANDY 18L T4.0/4.0 24/0545Z Atlantic

That would make Sandy a hurricane.

wind speed makes a hurricane?

If we were going off of satellite estimates only like we do for systems out in the middle of the ocean or in basins without recon flights, those T numbers indicate the intensity of the system based on the satellite appearance. So if we didn't have recon on its' way into Sandy, that T4.0 would be enough to make it a Cat1. But since we've got recon on the way in, we'll wait and see what they actually measure.

[GCANE]

Vortical Hot Tower currently firing and rotating around the COC

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 240015.jpg

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/nexdat/CONUS ... bean.0.jpg

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html


Core temp up to 2C. A little lower than average in altitude than typical TC's.
A small inversion just above the boundary layer - need to watch if this cuts convection in the coming hours.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 2_TANO.GIF

[Blown Away]

NHC says movement is now north, but track graphic shows NNE as it moves towards Cuba? Only missing SFL by a few degrees of longitude, so slight differences may matter in 48 hours??

[GCANE]

Good eyewall building on the east quad

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... splay.html

[GCANE]

Strong hot tower in the feeder band south of the LLC about 1 hour 15 minutes ago.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/nexdat/CONUS ... bean.0.jpg

Won't do much to heat the core, but could broaden the anti-cyclone.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a ... wg8shr.GIF

[weatherwindow]

NHC says movement is now north, but track graphic shows NNE as it moves towards Cuba? Only missing SFL by a few degrees of longitude, so slight differences may matter in 48 hours??

Good morning, BA....Advisory "N" however at 10deg E of due N. Due N is 360/0deg(range 350deg - 10deg). Due NNE is 22 1/2deg(range 12 1/2deg-32 1/2deg). Advisory N is really just on the cusp of NNE. ...Rich

[cycloneye]

For those who may want to see what is going on in Jamaica,there are a few web cams posted at the first post of the Caribbean-Central America Weather thread. Scroll down that first post and you will see them.

viewtopic.php?f=24&t=85676&hilit=&start=0

[Nimbus]

Late season storm like Steven Kings storm of the century. New England can have it please no more west shifts in the forecast for Florida.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM SANDY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
800 AM EDT WED OCT 24 2012

...SANDY APPROACHING JAMAICA...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.6N 76.9W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM S OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 270 MI...440 KM SSW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES

[jlauderdal]

Late season storm like Steven Kings storm of the century. New England can have it please no more west shifts in the forecast for Florida.

considering its at 77w now i find it very unlikely it makes it to 80 for a sofla hit even if some additional ridging comes into the picture...already had a good squall come through FLL this morning...sofla kids back on storm watch for a 3 dayer desperately hoping for a west shift...has a storm coming out of the Caribbean ever had so few posts, lol..its a very small percentage of board members in the game for sandy..back to the models

[BoudreauxWPB]

Late season storm like Steven Kings storm of the century. New England can have it please no more west shifts in the forecast for Florida.

considering its at 77w now i find it very unlikely it makes it to 80 for a sofla hit even if some additional ridging comes into the picture...already had a good squall come through FLL this morning...sofla kids back on storm watch for a 3 dayer desperately hoping for a west shift...has a storm coming out of the Caribbean ever had so few posts, lol..its a very small percentage of board members in the game for sandy..back to the models

Very few S. Floridians in the game for Sandy. I got blank stares yesterday when I first starting bringing the storm up to co-workers. Most of them had no idea there was a storm out there.

[GCANE]

The first visible frame at 11:15Z showing a very high VHT circulating around the core - awesome.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

[StormingB81]

Wow. Somone just came in and was like "Did you see that storm coming! No work Monday!" I was like first that is still well off alot can and will change and two this could be a huge disaster for alot of people I wouldn't wish this for a day off" But from what I saw I told him it doesn't look like we will get much of all maybe some winds but nothing near to us having a day off. but yet that can change as well. going to be a long week of watching.

[jlauderdal]

Late season storm like Steven Kings storm of the century. New England can have it please no more west shifts in the forecast for Florida.

considering its at 77w now i find it very unlikely it makes it to 80 for a sofla hit even if some additional ridging comes into the picture...already had a good squall come through FLL this morning...sofla kids back on storm watch for a 3 dayer desperately hoping for a west shift...has a storm coming out of the Caribbean ever had so few posts, lol..its a very small percentage of board members in the game for sandy..back to the models

Very few S. Floridians in the game for Sandy. I got blank stares yesterday when I first starting bringing the storm up to co-workers. Most of them had no idea there was a storm out there.

I was in a 7-11 this morning and heard a customer say..its heading NW right at us and the other customer says well the newspaper has map saying its going to hit us so i am going out and getting extra gas today....i paid and left the store without saying a word

[brunota2003]

You guys do realize that regardless of if Sandy makes landfall in SFL or stays offshore 100 miles, SFL is still going to get high winds and heavy rains, right? Along with potentially historic coastal waves of 25 to 30 feet (or greater), heavy beach erosion and possibly surge? A hurricane is NOT a point!

Just outside the coastal waters of Florida (this is for the Bahamas):

.THU NIGHT...HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. ATLC EXPOSURES...SE
WINDS 35 TO 40 KT...BECOMING S 50 TO 60 KT LATE.
ELSEWHERE...NE WINDS 60 TO 65 KT...BECOMING W TO NW 50 TO 60 KT
LATE. SEAS 21 TO 31 FT ATLC EXPOSURES...AND 16 TO
26 FT IN ELSEWHERE. SCATTERED TSTMS.
.FRI...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. W WINDS 55 TO 60 KT.
ATLC EXPOSURES...SEAS 26 FT...SUBSIDING TO 23 FT
LATE. ELSEWHERE...SEAS 16 TO 26 FT.

Florida coastal waters:

Thursday: Tropical storm conditions possible. Northeast winds 29 to 34 knots with gusts to around 50 knots. Along the coast... Seas 9 to 11 feet with occasional seas up to 14 feet building to 12 to 14 feet with occasional seas up to 18 feet in the afternoon. In the gulf stream...seas 11 to 13 feet with occasional seas up to 17 feet building to 13 to 15 feet with occasional seas up to 19 feet in the afternoon. Dominant period 9 seconds. North swell 3 feet increasing to 3 to 5 feet in the afternoon. Intracoastal waters rough. Chance of showers through the day. Slight chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon.

Thursday Night: Tropical storm conditions possible. North northwest winds 30 to 39 knots with gusts to around 55 knots. Seas 12 to 14 feet with occasional seas up to 18 feet along the coast and up to 16 to 20 feet with occasional up to 23 feet in the gulf stream. Dominant period 5 seconds. Intracoastal waters very rough. Showers likely and chance of thunderstorms.

Friday: Tropical storm conditions possible. Northwest winds 32 to 38 knots with gusts to around 55 knots. Seas 12 to 14 feet with occasional seas up to 18 feet along the coast and up to over 20 feet with occasional up to 27 feet in the gulf stream. Intracoastal waters very rough in exposed areas. Showers likely and chance of thunderstorms.

This was put out in the Marine Weather Discussion late last night:

VERY DANGEROUS SCENARIO IS DEVELOPING WITH SANDY AS SUFFICIENTLY SLOW MOVEMENT...PRE EXISTING HIGH SEAS...VERY LARGE WIND FIELD...AND ONSHORE FLOW DURING HIGH LUNAR TIDES COULD SPELL EXTREME COASTAL FLOODING AND EROSION FOR FLORIDA AND CERTAINLY BAHAMAS WED NIGHT THROUGH SAT. WW3 FORECASTING 12 FT SEAS TO REACH CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST BY 18Z THU WITH SEAS BUILDING 20-35 FT WITHIN THE COASTAL WATERS BY 18Z FRI. THIS COULD EVOLVE INTO A HISTORICAL EVENT AND FO'S ARE ENCOURAGED TO ADVERTISE THIS EVENT VERY HARD. NELY SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT FLORIDA AND SE COASTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH LONGER PERIOD SWELL INDUCING SUSTAINED RUNUP.

[wjs3]

Late season storm like Steven Kings storm of the century. New England can have it please no more west shifts in the forecast for Florida.

considering its at 77w now i find it very unlikely it makes it to 80 for a sofla hit even if some additional ridging comes into the picture...already had a good squall come through FLL this morning...sofla kids back on storm watch for a 3 dayer desperately hoping for a west shift...has a storm coming out of the Caribbean ever had so few posts, lol..its a very small percentage of board members in the game for sandy..back to the models

Yeah, nice squall, huh?

4 dayer--not 3...Friday is already off for public schools!

[jlauderdal]

You guys do realize that regardless of if Sandy makes landfall in SFL or stays offshore 100 miles, SFL is still going to get high winds and heavy rains, right? Along with potentially historic coastal waves of 25 to 30 feet (or greater), heavy beach erosion and possibly surge? A hurricane is NOT a point!

Just outside the coastal waters of Florida (this is for the Bahamas):

.THU NIGHT...HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. ATLC EXPOSURES...SE
WINDS 35 TO 40 KT...BECOMING S 50 TO 60 KT LATE.
ELSEWHERE...NE WINDS 60 TO 65 KT...BECOMING W TO NW 50 TO 60 KT
LATE. SEAS 21 TO 31 FT ATLC EXPOSURES...AND 16 TO
26 FT IN ELSEWHERE. SCATTERED TSTMS.
.FRI...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. W WINDS 55 TO 60 KT.
ATLC EXPOSURES...SEAS 26 FT...SUBSIDING TO 23 FT
LATE. ELSEWHERE...SEAS 16 TO 26 FT.

Florida coastal waters:

Thursday: Tropical storm conditions possible. Northeast winds 29 to 34 knots with gusts to around 50 knots. Along the coast... Seas 9 to 11 feet with occasional seas up to 14 feet building to 12 to 14 feet with occasional seas up to 18 feet in the afternoon. In the gulf stream...seas 11 to 13 feet with occasional seas up to 17 feet building to 13 to 15 feet with occasional seas up to 19 feet in the afternoon. Dominant period 9 seconds. North swell 3 feet increasing to 3 to 5 feet in the afternoon. Intracoastal waters rough. Chance of showers through the day. Slight chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon.

Thursday Night: Tropical storm conditions possible. North northwest winds 30 to 39 knots with gusts to around 55 knots. Seas 12 to 14 feet with occasional seas up to 18 feet along the coast and up to 16 to 20 feet with occasional up to 23 feet in the gulf stream. Dominant period 5 seconds. Intracoastal waters very rough. Showers likely and chance of thunderstorms.

Friday: Tropical storm conditions possible. Northwest winds 32 to 38 knots with gusts to around 55 knots. Seas 12 to 14 feet with occasional seas up to 18 feet along the coast and up to over 20 feet with occasional up to 27 feet in the gulf stream. Intracoastal waters very rough in exposed areas. Showers likely and chance of thunderstorms.

This was put out in the Marine Weather Discussion late last night:

VERY DANGEROUS SCENARIO IS DEVELOPING WITH SANDY AS SUFFICIENTLY SLOW MOVEMENT...PRE EXISTING HIGH SEAS...VERY LARGE WIND FIELD...AND ONSHORE FLOW DURING HIGH LUNAR TIDES COULD SPELL EXTREME COASTAL FLOODING AND EROSION FOR FLORIDA AND CERTAINLY BAHAMAS WED NIGHT THROUGH SAT. WW3 FORECASTING 12 FT SEAS TO REACH CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST BY 18Z THU WITH SEAS BUILDING 20-35 FT WITHIN THE COASTAL WATERS BY 18Z FRI. THIS COULD EVOLVE INTO A HISTORICAL EVENT AND FO'S ARE ENCOURAGED TO ADVERTISE THIS EVENT VERY HARD. NELY SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT FLORIDA AND SE COASTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH LONGER PERIOD SWELL INDUCING SUSTAINED RUNUP.

sandy+ other dynamics certainly have the potential to cause big problems...this system is going to look very different once it gets into the bahamas