Texas Winter 2017-2018

[Ntxw]

When is the 0z GFS run?

The run just started. It will finish within the next hour and a half. Middle of next week and later will be within the next hour or so.

[starsfan65]

When is the 0z GFS run?

The run just started. It will finish within the next hour and a half. Middle of next week and later will be within the next hour or so.

I hope that 18z run was a bad run.

[Brent]

snowing in Mexico on the 0z GFS while DFW Is in the mid 40s

Can't make this up

the 540 line is near Austin with afternoon highs near normal

[Ntxw]

GFS has thickness in the 530s, 850s below 0C while the surface is 50s . 1047mb high and all higher surface heights to Mexico. It's funny. Canadian is chilly with a hard freeze/

[spencer817]

snowing in Mexico on the 0z GFS while DFW Is in the mid 40s

Can't make this up

Not looking good, 18z mightve started a bad trend.

[spencer817]

GFS has thickness in the 530s, 850s below 0C while the surface is 50s . 1047mb high and all higher surface heights to Mexico. It's funny. Canadian is chilly with a hard freeze/

Could the CMC be right for once?

[Brent]

GFS has thickness in the 530s, 850s below 0C while the surface is 50s . 1047mb high and all higher surface heights to Mexico. It's funny. Canadian is chilly with a hard freeze/

Could the CMC be right for once?

its usually way too cold in my experience

but maybe I guess lol

I'm having a hard time buying the GFS though... it can't snow in Mexico and be 45 here lol

[Ntxw]

GFS has thickness in the 530s, 850s below 0C while the surface is 50s . 1047mb high and all higher surface heights to Mexico. It's funny. Canadian is chilly with a hard freeze/

Could the CMC be right for once?

Not sure but I've always stood by the fact the colder pattern would yield a good freeze. Like I said earlier, we got close with much less with warmer climo the past two months. The only thing that would prevent a freeze from CAA like that would be clouds and rain, but that would keep daytime temps colder.

[spencer817]

GFS has thickness in the 530s, 850s below 0C while the surface is 50s . 1047mb high and all higher surface heights to Mexico. It's funny. Canadian is chilly with a hard freeze/

Could the CMC be right for once?

its usually way too cold in my experience

but maybe I guess lol

I'm having a hard time buying the GFS though... it can't snow in Mexico and be 45 here lol

Exactly, that would only happen on the CMC!

[spencer817]

Meanwhile, the CMC keeps getting colder. Has us even in the teens one morning!

[Quixotic]

I wouldn’t fret yet. Most of the ensembles show a retrograding trough from the Midwest to the plains. Also, no matter the year, there’s always a good arctic breakout for Nina years in December.....even last year...

[Brent]

a foot of snow in Mexico on the GFS



The CMC has over 20 inches in Mexico!!!

[spencer817]

I wouldn’t fret yet. Most of the ensembles show a retrograding trough from the Midwest to the plains. Also, no matter the year, there’s always a good arctic breakout for Nina years in December.....even last year...

Wonder of the upgrade the CMC got a couple of weeks ago might help it (and us) for this pattern. IT's far fetched, but it's stayed somewhat consistent.

[Brent]

What even

[Quixotic]

I wouldn’t fret yet. Most of the ensembles show a retrograding trough from the Midwest to the plains. Also, no matter the year, there’s always a good arctic breakout for Nina years in December.....even last year...

Wonder of the upgrade the CMC got a couple of weeks ago might help it (and us) for this pattern. IT's far fetched, but it's stayed somewhat consistent.

Maybe. The CMC always has a chilly tendency. I’d bet that way now. Even ‘98 and ‘05 which were miserable winters had serious outbreaks in December. We may have to wait a week longer. The run to run inconsistencies generally mean a major pattern change is afoot. Just a matter of when. All the analogs I would take but 2005.

[Brent]

snow in SW Arkansas at 234 on the GFS

6 inches of snow in Southern Arkansas at 240 lol

[spencer817]

This second blast signal has looked better most of the runs so far.

[Brent]

This second blast signal has looked better most of the runs so far.

if that was just a little faster...

[spencer817]

This second blast signal has looked better most of the runs so far.

if that was just a little faster...

I want snow as much as the next guy in DFW (Coppell specifically) but the last 2 years make me pessimistic.

[Brent]

This second blast signal has looked better most of the runs so far.

if that was just a little faster...

I want snow as much as the next guy in DFW (Coppell specifically) but the last 2 years make me pessimistic.

oh I know, believe me

Even if it was shown on the models I would have a hard time buying it

But at least it looks like there will be plenty to talk about