2020 EPAC Season

[TheStormExpert]

Well the good news is Kingarabian in Hawaii shouldn't have to worry about any long-tracking crossovers threatening Hawaii this year.

[StruThiO]

[Yellow Evan]

An Atlantic storm at high latitudes isn't really influenced by the MJO.

[StruThiO]

:uarrow: An Atlantic storm at high latitudes isn't really influenced by the MJO.

no worries its just a dumb meme NotSparta made. not to be taken seriously

[Kingarabian]

Well the good news is Kingarabian in Hawaii shouldn't have to worry about any long-tracking crossovers threatening Hawaii this year.

[url]https://i.imgur.com/JQC6O8g.gif[/rl]

Shucks I dont get to see storms be ripped to shreds before they safely pass south of me. Honestly Hawaii's georgraphy keeps it safe and the EPAC just has better fish storms than any other basin IMO.

[aspen]

The system I mentioned yesterday or the day before has finally reappeared in the latest GFS run. It’s still showing something developing on Thursday or Friday. The 00z Euro still shows it, too.

[cycloneye]

And they added it.

An area of low pressure is likely to form a few hundred miles
south-southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec by the middle of the
week. Environmental conditions are then forecast to be conducive
for slow development while the system moves west-northwestward at
10 to 15 mph well south of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

\

[Yellow Evan]

12z ECMWF shows nothing.

[aspen]

12z ECMWF shows nothing.

The vorticity seems to be there, but it never consolidates. However, the GFS, CMC, and ICON remain rather aggressive (CMC and ICON show at least one additional system forming by the end of their runs), and the NAVGEM shows a disturbance associated with this potential system.

[Yellow Evan]

12z ECMWF shows nothing.

The vorticity seems to be there, but it never consolidates. However, the GFS, CMC, and ICON remain rather aggressive (CMC and ICON show at least one additional system forming by the end of their runs), and the NAVGEM shows a disturbance associated with this potential system.

Who here has faith in those 4 models?

[Yellow Evan]

0z UKMET has nothing as well.

[aspen]

12z ECMWF shows nothing.

The vorticity seems to be there, but it never consolidates. However, the GFS, CMC, and ICON remain rather aggressive (CMC and ICON show at least one additional system forming by the end of their runs), and the NAVGEM shows a disturbance associated with this potential system.

Who here has faith in those 4 models?

The Euro hasn’t been as good these last six months. Remember how badly it busted with Kammuri and Nisarga.

[Kingarabian]

IMO the models just aren't adjusting to the unfavorable base state in the EPAC that's been there since summer 2019.

[Yellow Evan]

The vorticity seems to be there, but it never consolidates. However, the GFS, CMC, and ICON remain rather aggressive (CMC and ICON show at least one additional system forming by the end of their runs), and the NAVGEM shows a disturbance associated with this potential system.

Who here has faith in those 4 models?

The Euro hasn’t been as good these last six months. Remember how badly it busted with Kammuri and Nisarga.

It's been the most accurate over the last few weeks in this basin and is historically a very strong performer here.

[Ubuntwo]

0z Euro shows a pretty desolate landscape. Seems realistic

[cycloneye]

An area of low pressure is forecast to form a few hundred miles
south of the coast of Mexico later this week. Gradual development
of the system will be possible by the weekend while it moves
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph well south of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1278159725926821888

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Wed Jul 1 2020

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure, located a few hundred miles south-southwest of the
southern coast of Mexico, have become a little better organized
this morning. Some further development of the system is possible
over the next several days while it moves west-northwestward at
around 10 mph well south of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Forecaster Roberts

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Wed Jul 1 2020

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. A large area of cloudiness and thunderstorms located a few hundred
miles south of the southern coast of Mexico is associated with a
broad area of low pressure. Some gradual development of this
system is possible over the next few days while it moves
west-northwestward at around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Forecaster Brown

[cycloneye]

If this strong hurricane happens in long range,it would get a ton of ACE as it crosses to CPAC.