NATL: HUMBERTO - Remnants - Discussion

[WaveBreaking]

That inner eyewall is slowly losing steam. We’ll probably see a big new eye tomorrow (maybe even the a-word?) before Imelda’s outflow begins to make Humberto look lopsided. Also note the trochoidal motion of the inner eyewall. It’s even more pronounced than yesterday.

[Kazmit]

One symmetrical storm.

[storm_in_a_teacup]

One symmetrical storm.

https://t3.ftcdn.net/jpg/00/28/32/42/360_F_28324234_62Ldl3Kzab69YtrJB143JhkudonV0X2w.jpg

If I ever make a character for this guy I'll probably give him some sort of buzzsaw attack (though already I give this to Andrew lol )

[Hurricane2022]

Intense outer eyewall!!
 https://x.com/Veeringwindswx/status/1972378909699367209

[cheezyWXguy]

I’m curious what kind of winds recon will find in this thing. The outer eye is clearly formidable is probably dominant by now, but the inner eye is still remarkably warm and intact. Wouldn’t surprise me if we were still dealing with a 120kt+ cat4. We’ll see shortly though

[aspen]

Looks like recon on its way to Humberto did a pass through Imelda.

[Sciencerocks]

[Travorum]

Wow, winds don't look all that impressive on recon but extrap pressure is 927.9mb. I can only wonder how low it was last night.

[cycloneye]

Wow, winds don't look all that impressive on recon but extrap pressure is 927.9mb. I can only wonder how low it was last night.

Let's see how strong are the winds when plane goes thru the NE side.

[cheezyWXguy]

Wow, winds don't look all that impressive on recon but extrap pressure is 927.9mb. I can only wonder how low it was last night.

Outer eyewall has clearly taken over judging by those FL winds, although I’d guess the handoff was fairly recent given how persistent the inner eyewall has been. I would think this is pretty close to the low point in terms of winds, given that the energy has been distributed between two seemingly equally strong eyewalls, and that the recovery phase has begun as the inner begins to dissipate. Think we’re still on track for a secondary peak sometime tomorrow

[cainjamin]

Wow. Still being in the 920's right now really makes you wonder how low it was last night. Probably lower than Erin if I had to guess. I'm sure they'll take a deep dive into that in the TCR.

[Hurricane2022]

Wow. Still being in the 920's right now really makes you wonder how low it was last night. Probably lower than Erin if I had to guess. I'm sure they'll take a deep dive into that in the TCR.

I doubt they will go anything below than 920 and higher than 145 kt in the TCR. But anyway we're going to see significant changes later on.

[aspen]

Wow, winds don't look all that impressive on recon but extrap pressure is 927.9mb. I can only wonder how low it was last night.

This will be tricky to extrapolate from. In most situations I’d expect the actual peak to be at least 10-15mb deeper than what it is now. Maybe something in the 910mb range. However, this hasn’t been a typical EWRC, with that robust inner eyewall maintaining itself for a while. The new pressure gradient also doesn’t look too broad. So it’s possible Humberto’s pressure didn’t rise quite as much compared to other high-end 4s or 5s in EWRC.

145 kt and 920 mbar feels like a safe guess for post-season. My gut feeling is that Humberto was probably deeper than Erin, though. Maybe around Irma intensity, judging by the exceptional structure, eye temps, and duration of said stricture. A very real chance we missed recon for one of the strongest Atlantic hurricanes in recent years.

[MarioProtVI]

There’s a high chance Humberto was considerably stronger at peak last night given the low pressure from recon and mid-EWRC.

Based on that, this is what I’d revise the BT to:

AL, 08, 2025092212, , BEST, 0, 131N, 426W, 20, 1011, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 150, 120, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS025, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 025,
AL, 08, 2025092218, , BEST, 0, 132N, 440W, 20, 1011, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 150, 120, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS025, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 025,
AL, 08, 2025092300, , BEST, 0, 140N, 462W, 20, 1011, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 150, 120, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS025, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 025,
AL, 08, 2025092306, , BEST, 0, 143N, 471W, 20, 1011, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 150, 120, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 025, SPAWNINVEST, al762025 to al932025,
AL, 08, 2025092312, , BEST, 0, 150N, 480W, 20, 1011, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 150, 120, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 025,
AL, 08, 2025092318, , BEST, 0, 164N, 490W, 25, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 150, 75, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 025,
AL, 08, 2025092400, , BEST, 0, 172N, 502W, 25, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 150, 75, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 025,
AL, 08, 2025092406, , BEST, 0, 185N, 520W, 30, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 150, 75, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 025,
AL, 08, 2025092412, , BEST, 0, 190N, 534W, 30, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 150, 60, 40, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 025,
AL, 08, 2025092418, , BEST, 0, 198N, 545W, 35, 1008, TS, 34, NEQ, 40, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 150, 40, 45, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, HUMBERTO, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 025, TRANSITIONED, alB32025 to al082025,
AL, 08, 2025092500, , BEST, 0, 205N, 554W, 40, 1007, TS, 34, NEQ, 90, 90, 0, 40, 1014, 110, 60, 50, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, HUMBERTO, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 025,
AL, 08, 2025092506, , BEST, 0, 210N, 562W, 40, 1007, TS, 34, NEQ, 90, 90, 0, 40, 1014, 110, 60, 50, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, HUMBERTO, M, 12, NEQ, 60, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 025,
AL, 08, 2025092512, , BEST, 0, 213N, 566W, 40, 1006, TS, 34, NEQ, 90, 90, 0, 40, 1014, 110, 60, 50, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, HUMBERTO, M, 12, NEQ, 75, 0, 0, 60, genesis-num, 025,
AL, 08, 2025092518, , BEST, 0, 215N, 568W, 50, 1000, TS, 34, NEQ, 80, 60, 30, 60, 1014, 150, 20, 60, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, HUMBERTO, M, 12, NEQ, 120, 90, 0, 90, genesis-num, 025,
AL, 08, 2025092600, , BEST, 0, 217N, 569W, 55, 998, TS, 34, NEQ, 90, 70, 50, 90, 1015, 150, 20, 65, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, HUMBERTO, M, 12, NEQ, 120, 60, 30, 90, genesis-num, 025,
AL, 08, 2025092606, , BEST, 0, 219N, 570W, 65, 990, HU, 34, NEQ, 90, 70, 50, 90, 1012, 150, 10, 65, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, HUMBERTO, D, 12, NEQ, 120, 75, 75, 105, genesis-num, 025,
AL, 08, 2025092612, , BEST, 0, 222N, 574W, 85, 982 HU, 34, NEQ, 90, 70, 50, 90, 1012, 150, 10, 90, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, HUMBERTO, D, 12, NEQ, 120, 75, 75, 105, genesis-num, 025,
AL, 08, 2025092618, , BEST, 0, 223N, 578W, 100, 966, HU, 34, NEQ, 90, 60, 50, 80, 1012, 150, 10, 115, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, HUMBERTO, D, 12, NEQ, 120, 75, 75, 105, genesis-num, 025,
AL, 08, 2025092700, , BEST, 0, 221N, 584W, 130, 937, HU, 34, NEQ, 90, 60, 50, 80, 1012, 150, 10, 145, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, HUMBERTO, D, 12, NEQ, 150, 90, 75, 120, genesis-num, 025,
AL, 08, 2025092706, , BEST, 0, 222N, 589W, 135, 929, HU, 34, NEQ, 90, 60, 50, 80, 1011, 160, 10, 150, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, HUMBERTO, D, 12, NEQ, 150, 120, 75, 120, genesis-num, 025,
AL, 08, 2025092712, , BEST, 0, 225N, 597W, 140, 924, HU, 34, NEQ, 110, 110, 70, 100, 1011, 160, 10, 150, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, HUMBERTO, D, 12, NEQ, 150, 120, 105, 120, genesis-num, 025,
AL, 08, 2025092718, , BEST, 0, 227N, 607W, 145, 916, HU, 34, NEQ, 110, 110, 70, 100, 1011, 170, 10, 165, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, HUMBERTO, D, 12, NEQ, 150, 120, 105, 120, genesis-num, 025,
AL, 08, 2025092800, , BEST, 0, 231N, 616W, 150, 909, HU, 34, NEQ, 120, 120, 90, 100, 1011, 170, 10, 170, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, HUMBERTO, D, 12, NEQ, 210, 180, 180, 210, genesis-num, 025,
AL, 08, 2025092806, , BEST, 0, 237N, 628W, 145, 912, HU, 34, NEQ, 120, 120, 90, 100, 1011, 170, 10, 165, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, HUMBERTO, D, 12, NEQ, 210, 180, 150, 180, genesis-num, 025,
AL, 08, 2025092812, , BEST, 0, 242N, 638W, 135, 921, HU, 34, NEQ, 150, 130, 90, 120, 1011, 170, 10, 160, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, HUMBERTO, D, 12, NEQ, 210, 150, 165, 210, genesis-num, 025,
AL, 08, 2025092818, , BEST, 0, 251N, 648W, 130, 929, HU, 34, NEQ, 160, 130, 90, 120, 1011, 160, 10, 150, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, HUMBERTO, D, 12, NEQ, 270, 180, 180, 270, genesis-num, 025,

Of note, I smoothed out the RI, and based on an estimate of 915 from the MODIS CO2 instrument (saw this reported but need to find source), CKZ parameters with 150 kt spitting out 912 mb and the quick ramp-up from 18z or so yesterday to 00z satellite wise and with Humberto running stronger pressure-wise vs satellite estimates, there’s a good chance this may have very slightly dethroned Dorian as the strongest hurricane outside the Caribbean/GoM.

[ljmac75]

Years with at least two hurricanes with a pressure below 925 mb:
1961 (Esther and Hattie)
2005 (Katrina, Rita, Wilma)
2017 (Irma and Maria)
2020 (Eta and Iota)
2025 (Erin and Humberto)

If you include 925 mb, 2019 is also on the list (Dorian and Lorenzo).

[sasha_B]

08L HUMBERTO 250929 0000 25.8N 65.8W ATL 125 928

Best Track has Humberto at 928 hPa right now, which strongly suggests that it was deeper than 924 when it was at its peak (15+ kts stronger) last night.

[cycloneye]

In NE quad.

Peak Flight-Level Winds: 126kt at 01:11z

[cheezyWXguy]

Although the inner eyewall still looks well put together on IR, I suspect by this point it’s not much more than a tall cloud canopy above what few convective cells remain. Outer eyewall is looking more impressive with each set of frames that comes in, cloud tops cooling and consolidating.

[zhukm29]

Wow, winds don't look all that impressive on recon but extrap pressure is 927.9mb. I can only wonder how low it was last night.

This will be tricky to extrapolate from. In most situations I’d expect the actual peak to be at least 10-15mb deeper than what it is now. Maybe something in the 910mb range. However, this hasn’t been a typical EWRC, with that robust inner eyewall maintaining itself for a while. The new pressure gradient also doesn’t look too broad. So it’s possible Humberto’s pressure didn’t rise quite as much compared to other high-end 4s or 5s in EWRC.

145 kt and 920 mbar feels like a safe guess for post-season. My gut feeling is that Humberto was probably deeper than Erin, though. Maybe around Irma intensity, judging by the exceptional structure, eye temps, and duration of said stricture. A very real chance we missed recon for one of the strongest Atlantic hurricanes in recent years.

Maybe the real I curse this year was not from a devastating I storm, but rather from the I storm preventing us from collecting recon data on one of the most significant storms in Atlantic history.

[Ptarmigan]

Hurricane Humberto is getting larger.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles
(295 km).