96L Invest,E of Windwards,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #1

[cheezyWXguy]

yup...it has outflow, possibly another devloping MLL??

[HurricaneHunter914]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/avn-l.jpg

I noticed it very quickly, I think it is probably just the ITCZ but I think this could develop down the road.

[Agua]

I think they Just are saying there is potential down the road for it, if it makes it passed the shear but right now it's not going to develop.

I think these are issued for only 36 hours forward. So, what they're saying has nothing to do with potential down the road. They are simply saying that within the time frame of their forecast (36 hours), development is unlikely.

[cheezyWXguy]

It has this look to it, a look I saw many times in 96L, if conditions were more favorable it wouldve exploded by now

[HurricaneHunter914]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8sht.GIF

Development will have to wait since there will be increasing shear over 96L, but the shear over that area of convection might have a better chance of development.

[Jam151]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8sht.GIF

Development will have to wait since there will be increasing shear over 96L, but the shear over that area of convection might have a better chance of development.

Too far south, no chance at all. As for 96L this will be my last thoughts on it, I say no development, never,no nada, nothing. I've listed my reasons before so i hope i don't have to go back and list them again. If we are gonna watch anything lets stay closer to home, the east atlantic doesn't normally develop storms, some people just don't understand though. Yeah we had it last year but last year was rare and rare years don't happen back to back thats why they are rare. Sorry for my little rant...

[drezee]

Buoy 4104 had a 31 mph 1-min sustained wind last hour. Winds are out if the NE as well. Pressure a hair lower than yesterday. There is definitely something at the surface, it will be more evident when it passes the buoy.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41040

Highest 1 minute Wind Speed
Time (GMT) WSPD WDIR
1804 26.8 kts ENE ( 75 deg true )

[HurricaneHunter914]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8sht.GIF

Development will have to wait since there will be increasing shear over 96L, but the shear over that area of convection might have a better chance of development.

Too far south, no chance at all. As for 96L this will be my last thoughts on it, I say no development, never,no nada, nothing. I've listed my reasons before so i hope i don't have to go back and list them again. If we are gonna watch anything lets stay closer to home, the east atlantic doesn't normally develop storms, some people just don't understand though. Yeah we had it last year but last year was rare and rare years don't happen back to back thats why they are rare. Sorry for my little rant...

You know hurricanes have formed at that latitude before, so it isn't impossible.

[drezee]

My opinion is a bit different than most on this system. I find it hard to believe that this system will not develop. The low level structure has improved remarkable since yesterday at this time...in spite of the lack of convection. If we can get any I mean any sustained convection this will become a Classified Tropical Cyclone. Unlike 93L which had very small LLCs with little influence, this system has a average envelope. The upper ridge is starting to catch up with it...if only for a time. If it is going to go at all...It should blow its top tonight.

[Opal storm]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8sht.GIF

Development will have to wait since there will be increasing shear over 96L, but the shear over that area of convection might have a better chance of development.

Too far south, no chance at all. As for 96L this will be my last thoughts on it, I say no development, never,no nada, nothing. I've listed my reasons before so i hope i don't have to go back and list them again. If we are gonna watch anything lets stay closer to home, the east atlantic doesn't normally develop storms, some people just don't understand though. Yeah we had it last year but last year was rare and rare years don't happen back to back thats why they are rare. Sorry for my little rant...

It being too far south is not the problem,it's just that it has a lot of shear to deal which is typical for this time of the season.I agree I would not be looking for any development out of these waves this far east until mid August or so.Like I said a few posts back,at this time in the season I am more focused on the Carib,Gulf and Bahamas.

[skysummit]

It's still interesting to track these waves across these unfavorable areas until they get into a better environment....especially this one since it has such a decent structure even with all the obstacles it must overcome and has been doing on some point.

[gatorcane]

Buoy 4104 had a 31 mph 1-min sustained wind last hour. Winds are out if the NE as well. Pressure a hair lower than yesterday. There is definitely something at the surface, it will be more evident when it passes the buoy.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41040

Highest 1 minute Wind Speed
Time (GMT) WSPD WDIR
1804 26.8 kts ENE ( 75 deg true )

Two things

(1) SAL too dominating so no convection will get going
(2) You can expect slight pressure drops during the afternoon hours - nothing unusual

My opinion again, 96L was gone hours ago

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The Itcz is below 8 north right now...So all distrabances are below 10 north...Strong SAL has formed over the central and eastern Atlantic.

Also a very powerful tutt is over the eastern Caribbean. This year is turning out to be one unfaverable you know what. After 1933 season the seasons where not as active. So this might it...

SAD really I will be out of town around the 20th so something better form soon.

[drezee]

Buoy 4104 had a 31 mph 1-min sustained wind last hour. Winds are out if the NE as well. Pressure a hair lower than yesterday. There is definitely something at the surface, it will be more evident when it passes the buoy.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41040

Highest 1 minute Wind Speed
Time (GMT) WSPD WDIR
1804 26.8 kts ENE ( 75 deg true )

Two things

(1) SAL too dominating so no convection will get going
(2) You can expect slight pressure drops during the afternoon hours - nothing unusual

My opinion again, 96L was gone hours ago

I am not sure why you quoted that one. I was talking about 24 hour pressure falls. There are natural cycles that occur across the globe. They are at different times at any one point on the Earth's surface. That is why one would want to reference the 24 hour pressure fall as it take into account this natural cycle...in other words the afternoon has nothing to do with what I was referencing. The point I made earlier was the improvement of the structure in spite of the hostile conditions...SAL included.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I will wait intill August 15th but if things have not improved by then...I will seriously think we will be inline with 2002 numbers.

[marcane_1973]

Still a wave and still moving west. Just because it has no convection does not mean it's poof. The wave is still there....yes, it's only a wave. There are many of them every year. Why don't people realize this???

It is July and conditons are HORRIBLE for any development. I say poof when there is no chance at all for it to get their act back and start developing a surface low which this 1 now has 0 chance.

[skysummit]

Still a wave and still moving west. Just because it has no convection does not mean it's poof. The wave is still there....yes, it's only a wave. There are many of them every year. Why don't people realize this???

It is July and conditons are HORRIBLE for any development. I say poof when there is no chance at all for it to get their act back and start developing a surface low which this 1 now has 0 chance.

So you're pretty much saying a wave cannot re-generate and form a surface low? That comment I made above was only saying this is only a wave and some people are making it out to be much more. Some people go nuts when a few thunderstorms flare up looking for an LLC, but when a wave loses its convection....even in unfavorable environments such as this, they completely give up on it. That's hilarious.

You're saying there's no chance at all that this wave may be a player down the road? I'm just trying to see where you're coming from. Even a few pro mets on this board have mentioned the slight possibilities of it doing something in a week or so. I highly doubt it, but you need to leave at least the minimal possibilities in tack.

[Jevo]

I will wait intill August 15th but if things have not improved by then...I will seriously think we will be inline with 2002 numbers.

ROFLMAO!!!!!!

Thanks Matt I needed a lift a work

[WindRunner]

OK, time to be serious people, when was the last time ANYTHING in the tropics had a 0% chance of occuring in July? You might say it's unfavorable, or you don't think it's going to happen, or "I couldn't see it happening," or whatever, but the numbers I see people throwing around are just a little ridiculous. Try and use some qualitative descriptors in your discussions. We really don't need a percentage chance in every other post, especially when you made the number up after you started typing. I know this doesn't apply to everyone, but I would like to see some moderation of the use of the numbers in some people's "forecasts".



Back on topic now . . . it is looking pretty pathetic, but it is a good ways away from any SAL and heading to even moister regions, and still has a meager amount of convection, which, as dreeze said, if it's going to pop, it'll be tonight.

[Thunder44]

764
ABNT20 KNHC 112117
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT TUE JUL 11 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 425 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS
BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON...BUT ANY FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR DUE TO UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

$$

FORECASTER STEWART/RHOME