Tropical Storm Beryl

Aric Dunn · #401 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Tue Jul 18, 2006 3:12 pm

dont worry the convection is trying to wrap around its a common occurance .... but its having problems

Eyewall · #402 Postby **Eyewall** » Tue Jul 18, 2006 3:12 pm

well I think that it is a TS
if look at a visable loop, the center looks very well formed...
just lacking some convection

Aric Dunn · #403 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Tue Jul 18, 2006 3:14 pm

and its not really exposed .. maybe a little part of the southern half of the cirulation but the center

all_we_know_is_FALLING · #404 Postby **all_we_know_is_FALLING** » Tue Jul 18, 2006 3:14 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:
all_we_know_is_FALLING wrote:
Thunder44 wrote:
Extremeweatherguy wrote:
Hurricane Floyd wrote:
Thunder44 wrote:12z GFDL shifted west. Makes landfall on Central Long Island.

http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropi ... model.html

very intresting
uh-oh. May be the doomsday NY scenario could be coming to life. Hopefully not, but there seems to be a chance. I would watch this very closely if I were in the Big Apple.

Bring it on!

Even if it did become a Tropical Storm and make landfall on Long Island, there's not much change of a "doomsday" event.
no, not as a TS, but if this managed to become a hurricane then there would be a chance.

Yes, but I really don't think a hurricane is likely, especially that far north, right now.

Aric Dunn · #405 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Tue Jul 18, 2006 3:15 pm

there is a little bit of shear still undercutting the system .. thats another reason it so lop sided

Aric Dunn · #406 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Tue Jul 18, 2006 3:19 pm

the next thing that will inhibit any major intesification is the dry air being pulled in.... another reason its lop sided

#407 Postby **storms in NC** » Tue Jul 18, 2006 3:22 pm

Would it be safe to say it is moving NE. That is what it looks like to me. Don't think it will near the NC coast. Let me know if I am wrong

#408 Postby **Hybridstorm_November2001** » Tue Jul 18, 2006 3:23 pm

This storm reminds me of another July system that caused a great deal of damage in my own area in 1916:

As far as I know the above was the ONLY storm that ever made landfall in New England as a hurricane in July. Unlike our current system though, this baby came from the deep tropics, and thus had more time to build up. Still, thought it would be interesting to throw this tib bit out there.

oceancounty · #409 Postby **oceancounty** » Tue Jul 18, 2006 3:24 pm

Just keep it away from NJ and we'll be ok

Aric Dunn · #410 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Tue Jul 18, 2006 3:24 pm

I mean this thing is getting pinched but the two upper lows... and will not be doing well if the ULL to its SE keeps moving NW like it is... if it does thing is done http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/loop-wv.html

Aric Dunn · #411 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Tue Jul 18, 2006 3:26 pm

Dont SEE NE ..I ese very slow N motion...

Aric Dunn · #412 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Tue Jul 18, 2006 3:27 pm

Grease Monkey · #413 Postby **Grease Monkey** » Tue Jul 18, 2006 3:27 pm

It's nice to see mostly atlantic threads again. I was getting tired of just hearing about the pacific.

Aric Dunn · #414 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Tue Jul 18, 2006 3:32 pm

AF308 0102A CYCLONE HDOB 31 KNHC
2020. 3311N 07325W 00267 5023 318 023 220 220 024 00254 0000000000
2021 3312N 07324W 00322 5022 310 021 218 218 022 00311 0000000000
2021. 3314N 07323W 00321 5024 310 020 218 218 021 00308 0000000000
2022 3315N 07322W 00322 5027 301 018 220 220 019 00306 0000000000
2022. 3316N 07321W 00323 5029 301 016 220 220 017 00304 0000000000
2023 3318N 07320W 00323 5033 297 014 220 220 014 00302 0000000000
2023. 3319N 07319W 00323 5037 297 011 220 220 013 00297 0000000000
2024 3320N 07318W 00321 5040 110 001 224 224 008 00292 0000000000
2024. 3322N 07317W 00322 5037 144 014 224 224 017 00296 0000000000
2025 3322N 07316W 00326 5034 161 020 220 220 020 00302 0000000000
2025. 3321N 07314W 00322 5033 175 019 220 220 019 00300 0000000000
2026 3320N 07313W 00322 5031 184 018 220 220 019 00302 0000000000
2026. 3319N 07312W 00323 5030 189 017 220 220 018 00304 0000000000
2027 3318N 07311W 00323 5029 196 017 220 220 017 00305 0000000000
2027. 3317N 07309W 00322 5028 202 020 220 220 024 00305 0000000000
2028 3316N 07308W 00323 5026 200 027 220 220 028 00308 0000000000
2028. 3315N 07307W 00322 5023 202 028 216 216 029 00310 0000000000
2029 3314N 07306W 00322 5020 196 031 216 216 034 00313 0000000000
2029. 3313N 07305W 00323 5018 194 039 212 212 039 00316 0000000000
2030 3312N 07303W 00323 5015 199 037 200 200 038 00319 0000000000

Aric Dunn · #415 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Tue Jul 18, 2006 3:32 pm

39kt ... its a storm ...

#416 Postby **Air Force Met** » Tue Jul 18, 2006 3:33 pm

storms in NC wrote:Would it be safe to say it is moving NE. That is what it looks like to me. Don't think it will near the NC coast. Let me know if I am wrong

Upper level clouds are being sheared to the NE some, but the sfc low is headed north.

Aric Dunn · #417 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Tue Jul 18, 2006 3:33 pm

thats enough data at least for me and all my years of tracking and chaseing storms

Aric Dunn · #418 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Tue Jul 18, 2006 3:34 pm

Yes Airforce Met Exactly what i said

Thunder44 · #419 Postby **Thunder44** » Tue Jul 18, 2006 3:35 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:39kt ... its a storm ...

What is the reduction being used here?

Aric Dunn · #420 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Tue Jul 18, 2006 3:35 pm

whats ur name Airforce Met? i know u ?

Tropical Storm Beryl

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