TD Ernesto Satellite,Analysis and Models Thread #8

[Normandy]

Folks Ernesto is becoming a BIG flooding threat, some areas on the W coast of FL now have had 12 inches of rain and its continuing to fall with Ernesto not moving fast.

Check Out this link.
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 11&loop=no

First check out the storm total, and you will notice many areas along the coast have up to 6 inches of rain, and some have 12 locally.


More worrisome, look at the 1-hour storm rainfall rates....the bands of Ernesto are producing 3 INCHES PER HOUR....if this doesn't move fast then we could have a big big flooding problem in FL.

[Bgator]

The bad thing is that some of that rain looks to be banding around the center and may hit the east coast if teh center is far enough east...

[Normandy]

^ 3 inches per hour is Allison like rainfaill rates, so hopefully these bands don't sit over areas for long periods of time.

[rnbaida]

where did it make landfall?

[Normandy]

My morning thoughts....

Looking at the WV loop, due to Ernesto's pesky slow movement he is allowing that trough to continue pushing further east while Erneso remains south....Ernesto seems to be FINALLY responding to it after nearly sitting in an area for 8 or so hours and is lifting N...

One thing I am noticing is how fast that trough is progressing and how fast the high east of Ernesto is eroding, which leads me to believe that Ernesto might leave the coast of FL sooner then the NHC things, maybe around melbourne FL?

[storms in NC]

Good Morning everyone. Hope things are going okay with you in fla. I see it not moving very fast. that could be good news for us up here in SC-NC

[krisj]

Yeah, but now it looks to be coming closer to the NC/SC border rather than Charleston, so you may get hammered.

[Normandy]

Good Morning everyone. Hope things are going okay with you in fla. I see it not moving very fast. that could be good news for us up here in SC-NC

I think that would lead to bad news, because the trough is booking it east, and if Ernie does not move soon he might get pushed more NE than NNE and spend more time over water before he turns N.

And I don't think strengthening is a question with Ernesto once he clears land, because honestly he looks RATHER GOOD for being over land nearly 12 hours.

[TampaFl]

When will the north then nneast turn occur??

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[storms in NC]

Just got up where is he now?

[TampaFl]

where did it make landfall?

Plantation Key @ 11:30PM last night.

[storms in NC]

from this it is moveing it NE now or it the radar?
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

[Normandy]

from this it is moveing it NE now or it the radar?
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

Na not moving NE, still N.

[cpdaman]

it seems the last hour or so the motion has increased albeit very slowly and shifted to almost due north i would expect this motion to continue and slowly bend toward the north east as the day goes by

here u can see his northern outflow move toward the north and almost east of north which is a precursur to his movement

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/radamx.html

NOTICE the south east side has strong bands fillng in south and south east of the center to go along with the strong bands to the southwest, ernie looks better to me, this morning (from 5 am discussion pressure is down "to at least 1001mb)

bad flooding sw florida could spread northeast


http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/radamx.html

[Colossus]

The biggest point of consideration in the Tampa Bay Area right now is from Urban Flooding. Areas that traditionally flood in the summer time will potentially see 2 to 4 inches of rain. More if the storm slows down.

[storms in NC]

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/mhx/digital/090afm.htm

[Normandy]

Ill tell you one thing.
People on the W Coast of FL are LUCKY this thing isn't about 40 or 50 miles offshore, because looking at its organization right now a major would have been likely.

Radar suggests the center has reformed or moved under that blow up of convection, which is not good.

[Stormavoider]

Ill tell you one thing.
People on the W Coast of FL are LUCKY this thing isn't about 40 or 50 miles offshore, because looking at its organization right now a major would have been likely.

Radar suggests the center has reformed or moved under that blow up of convection, which is not good.

You may be right! If so that's a pretty good west shift. The first visibles are coming in. It's blowing up right over your new center.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=26&lon=-81&info=vis&zoom=1&width=2800&height=2000&type=Animation&numframes=5&palette=ir.pal

[Normandy]

^ NO NO my center is not 40 miles offshore if that swhat you mean.

Buy yes, Ernesto is getting organized FAST....
Here, go to the GHCC GOES and run a 30 frame IR and watch how quick he came together.

[storms in NC]

Where are you saying it is reforming?