INVEST 90L: Gulf of Mexico : Gone from NRL

[HouTXmetro]

If this system moves onto the upper TX coast Friday, what conditions can we expect and will it be during the day? Just wondering if school will be canceled.

At the present some gusty wind and rain if that much. Doesn't look good for the sytem right now.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Ok, it is WRF, but only 0Z model before bedtime.


Weak system towards TX/LA coast, while a new low develops moving WSW through Bahamas.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Ed you meant to say NAM right? The link you provided is for the NAM and not the WRF.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Ed you meant to say NAM right? The link you provided is for the NAM and not the WRF.

WRF replaced ETA as operational NAM about a year ago, IIRC.

[JonathanBelles]

Ed you meant to say NAM right? The link you provided is for the NAM and not the WRF.

WRF replaced ETA as operational NAM about a year ago, IIRC.

I thought NAM and WRF are two different models.

[Extremeweatherguy]

That's what I thought too.

Now I am confused..

[lrak]

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42001

hanging in there.

[Extremeweatherguy]

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42001

hanging in there.

[Sambucol]

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42001

hanging in there.

Does the dropping off of air pressure indicate strengthening?

[lrak]

just getting closer to the buoy, and maybe a wee bit of organization.

[Sanibel]

Weak upper and lower coming together in tandem over the Loop Current. Should see slow formation.

[lrak]

so what is suppose to pull this thing up? It looks like its driving the ball to Mexico.

[HouTXmetro]

If and When should we expect convection to firenear the LLC. I mean it's looks organized but if the convection doesn't start soon the current LLC may die.

[Extremeweatherguy]

If and When should we expect convection to firenear the LLC. I mean it's looks organized but if the convection doesn't start soon the current LLC may die.

Probably overnight..but it does have a lot of dry air to contend with, so it might struggle. We will know much more about it's "health" in the morning after we start to see what, if any, affect the D-min is having.

[vaffie]

If and When should we expect convection to firenear the LLC. I mean it's looks organized but if the convection doesn't start soon the current LLC may die.

I expect that convection will gradually move closer and closer to the center over the course of the next 18 hours, finally reaching the center by tomorrow afternoon, at which point with a moistening atmosphere and a good outflow pattern, it will have approximately 40-45 hours of opportunity to strengthen before landfall. Just my opinion. Also my opinion that 40-45 hours is plenty enough time for a well defined circulation over the warm, open Gulf of Mexico to strengthen into a Category 2 hurricane or stronger. We'll just have to see.

[Extremeweatherguy]

00z GFS once again follows the trend of the last several runs and aims for SW Louisiana: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_060l.gif

[Normandy]

If and When should we expect convection to firenear the LLC. I mean it's looks organized but if the convection doesn't start soon the current LLC may die.

I expect that convection will gradually move closer and closer to the center over the course of the next 18 hours, finally reaching the center by tomorrow afternoon, at which point with a moistening atmosphere and a good outflow pattern, it will have approximately 40-45 hours of opportunity to strengthen before landfall. Just my opinion. Also my opinion that 40-45 hours is plenty enough time for a well defined circulation over the warm, open Gulf of Mexico to strengthen into a Category 2 hurricane or stronger. We'll just have to see.

Not that simple with systems of subtropical nature. Your 40-45 hours of time for deepening is generous....If I were to make a forecast I'd say this comes in as a weak to mid-level TS...Gonna take a lot more time for this to gain tropical characteristics....by the time it does I'd say it has less than 20 hours before landfall....IF that.

[HouTXmetro]

Looks like convection is migrating towards the center...

[njweather]

If and When should we expect convection to firenear the LLC. I mean it's looks organized but if the convection doesn't start soon the current LLC may die.

I expect that convection will gradually move closer and closer to the center over the course of the next 18 hours, finally reaching the center by tomorrow afternoon, at which point with a moistening atmosphere and a good outflow pattern, it will have approximately 40-45 hours of opportunity to strengthen before landfall. Just my opinion. Also my opinion that 40-45 hours is plenty enough time for a well defined circulation over the warm, open Gulf of Mexico to strengthen into a Category 2 hurricane or stronger. We'll just have to see.

Not that simple with systems of subtropical nature. Your 40-45 hours of time for deepening is generous....If I were to make a forecast I'd say this comes in as a weak to mid-level TS...Gonna take a lot more time for this to gain tropical characteristics....by the time it does I'd say it has less than 20 hours before landfall....IF that.

Given this season's legacy of remarkably rapid development, I wouldn't discount 20 hours worth of TC formation...

[HouTXmetro]

ok.... Is the circulation to the North of the LLC the ULL? And what about the broad overall circulation adjacent to the west of the LLC? Is that the ULL or?