EX INVEST 94L Thread

[hcane27]

There's something wrong with the atmosphere because any system in this climatology at that location should be getting strong and growing deep convection at this point. We've all heard over and over that this is the only spot in the Atlantic where conditions are favorable, yet the one system that managed to form here is struggling just like the systems further east.

Just a quick note on "climatology" ... since 1961 (satellite era) the western Caribbean has accounted for 21 named systems in October ... the rest of the basin 63 .... hmmm..that is roughly a 3 to 1 count ... meaning that maybe our concept of climatology is a bit skewed ...

[k4sdi]

Whats the difference between the GFS and the GFDL?

Thanks in advance.

[americanrebel]

I have to say I think this system will stay around the Yucatan and BOC for the next week or so, before either strengthening and going N/NE or going into Mexico and trying to form in the PAC.

[BigA]

it is a little early yet for the strong storms to form in the NW Caribbean

They have in recent years been forming in the middle to late October

And, there is almost always a storm after the first cold front (the first cold front sometimes spawns the storm

So it wouldnt be impossible to have a Mitch, Michelle, or Lili (1996) type storm form late in October, perhaps from the energy of that first deep trough? I know this is just speculation on my part though.

[ftolmsteen]

GFS has me a little bit concerned. GFDL could be rather interesting well down the road if it loops back into the NW Carribbean heading north.

[jlauderdal]

NAM 12Z

Indicates development in a climatological region. This if it verifies could pose a threat to the Keys/SFL

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

vortex,

you kep wanting to put something on south florida, im telling you right now any thinkg comes our way you are coming over to my house and putting up the panels, now cool it..

[BigA]

For the record, and really only for the record, the CMC has this move north off the Yucatan in a couple days and become a strong TS in the central GOM. The CMC also shows howling shear across the gulf at this time. These two outcomes appear incompatible.http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi ... =Animation

[tolakram]

Just a quick note on "climatology" ... since 1961 (satellite era) the western Caribbean has accounted for 21 named systems in October ... the rest of the basin 63 .... hmmm..that is roughly a 3 to 1 count ... meaning that maybe our concept of climatology is a bit skewed ...

That's just under every other year, right? (21 storms in 46 years) How many of those 21 developed in recognized La Nina years?

[hcane27]

That's just under every other year, right? (21 storms in 46 years) How many of those 21 developed in recognized La Nina years?

If you use the years defined by CPC as la Nina ..... 5
If you use the years defined by JMA as la Nina ..... 5

so .... 5 of the 21 in la Nina years

If you use the years defined by CPC as el Nino ..... 5
If you use the years defined by JMA as el Nino ..... 5

hmmm .... seems as though the "true" active years for western Caribbean development are "neutral" years ....

[fci]

For the record, and really only for the record, the CMC has this move north off the Yucatan in a couple days and become a strong TS in the central GOM. The CMC also shows howling shear across the gulf at this time. These two outcomes appear incompatible.http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi ... =Animation

BigA:
I can't speak for prior history but this season the CMC has been worthless.
We have had the CMC put Hurricanes into South Florida repeatedly in 2007.
I remember reading where one of the Pro Mets said that it was not a Tropics model and not to pay any real attention to it.

[BigA]

That's what I meant when I said it was only for the record. I dont put much faith at all in it.

[tolakram]

Looking at the latest vis loop it appears to still be offshore and either not moving or drifting NNW. It doesn;t look good at all even though it's still over water.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_2

[BigA]

Looks a little better than a couple of hours ago, but nothing to write home about.

[cycloneye]

09/1745 UTC 19.5N 87.5W OVERLAND 94L -- Atlantic Ocean


Is inland according to SSD.

[Blown Away]

Bye bye 94L, another disappointing invest.

[tolakram]

09/1745 UTC 19.5N 87.5W OVERLAND 94L -- Atlantic Ocean


Is inland according to SSD.

I'm daring to differ!

[sevenleft]

Put things on hold till it re-merges (if ever) over water...wherever that may be.

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KWBC 091844
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1844 UTC TUE OCT 9 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942007) 20071009 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
071009 1800 071010 0600 071010 1800 071011 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 18.9N 87.5W 19.5N 89.0W 19.7N 90.3W 19.5N 91.6W
BAMD 18.9N 87.5W 19.2N 88.6W 19.3N 89.7W 19.5N 90.7W
BAMM 18.9N 87.5W 19.4N 88.8W 19.6N 90.0W 19.6N 91.2W
LBAR 18.9N 87.5W 19.5N 88.4W 20.5N 89.5W 21.8N 89.8W
SHIP 25KTS 30KTS 36KTS 42KTS
DSHP 25KTS 25KTS 26KTS 32KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
071011 1800 071012 1800 071013 1800 071014 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 19.1N 92.7W 17.7N 94.6W 17.0N 96.1W 17.5N 97.3W
BAMD 19.7N 91.4W 20.7N 91.6W 21.5N 91.1W 22.5N 92.6W
BAMM 19.6N 92.1W 19.1N 93.5W 18.5N 95.1W 18.6N 97.4W
LBAR 23.2N 89.3W 26.2N 85.0W 30.7N 75.9W 35.0N 60.6W
SHIP 47KTS 54KTS 55KTS 55KTS
DSHP 38KTS 44KTS 39KTS 28KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 18.9N LONCUR = 87.5W DIRCUR = 310DEG SPDCUR = 5KT
LATM12 = 18.1N LONM12 = 86.7W DIRM12 = 298DEG SPDM12 = 4KT
LATM24 = 18.0N LONM24 = 86.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[Cyclone1]

Yep, goner.

Looks like 95 could be trying to form out in tropical Atlantic, so there's still something going on.

Until then, wake me up when we get something spinning.

[cycloneye]