ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIKA (06L)

[Derek Ortt]

close to the time to send this to the glue factory. Right in time for college football season

[canes04]

Here we go again, everyone writing her off. I will stick to my guns and say she survives and will be a hurricane down the road.

[SapphireSea]

Her death has been in sight for 2 days. Its obvious that conditions are not favorable at this time in that area. There can be alot of whatifs, but there is almost no doubt that according to obs, there is nothing at the surface. This is an elongated trough tapping into latent convective potential in the area. Shear is helping maintain the storm activity IMO.

[HURAKAN]

Erika

[jlauderdal]

close to the time to send this to the glue factory. Right in time for college football season

NEXT

[deltadog03]

I can't wait for CFB on saturday!! I am ready, plus it signals the end of summer, not my fav. season.

[StormClouds63]

close to the time to send this to the glue factory. Right in time for college football season

NEXT

Fred may be ready for his chance in a few days ... currently code yellow. Recurve as well?

Tigers at Huskies on Saturday night. Bayou Bengals are in a nasty mood after last season.

[RNGR]

I have a question for the pros here. I dont see any shear over the convection when I look at the visible loops. however, I do see ALOT of outflow. how can this be? Seems to me that the reason for lack of convection over the LLC is dry air not shear.

[SapphireSea]

I have a question for the pros here. I dont see any shear over the convection when I look at the visible loops. however, I do see ALOT of outflow. how can this be? Seems to me that the reason for lack of convection over the LLC is dry air not shear.

I may not be a pro, but dry air AND shear are responsible. You can clearly see some light streaks of clouds blowing off in higher storms. There is def shear on this.

[Air Force Met]

I have a question for the pros here. I dont see any shear over the convection when I look at the visible loops. however, I do see ALOT of outflow. how can this be? Seems to me that the reason for lack of convection over the LLC is dry air not shear.

The shear is occuring at a level BELOW the outlfow level that you see on the satellite. Its called undercutting shear. The outflow level you see on the satellite is above 200 mb. The shear is occuring at about 300-200 mb.

Undercutting shear rips the guts out of systems...rather than just blowing the tops off. So...since it destroys their mid levels (and thus their ability to "stack")...it can be much more deadly...even when its not as strong.

[lrak]

http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?69

so the spin on this radar loop is upper level?

[RNGR]

I have a question for the pros here. I dont see any shear over the convection when I look at the visible loops. however, I do see ALOT of outflow. how can this be? Seems to me that the reason for lack of convection over the LLC is dry air not shear.

I may not be a pro, but dry air AND shear are responsible. You can clearly see some light streaks of clouds blowing off in higher storms. There is def shear on this.

A sheared system will have those high clouds streaking is one direction, the convection has them in all quadrants and they are spinning in a clockwise (anti-cyclonic) fashion.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-wv.html

[RNGR]

I have a question for the pros here. I dont see any shear over the convection when I look at the visible loops. however, I do see ALOT of outflow. how can this be? Seems to me that the reason for lack of convection over the LLC is dry air not shear.

The shear is occuring at a level BELOW the outlfow level that you see on the satellite. Its called undercutting shear. The outflow level you see on the satellite is above 200 mb. The shear is occuring at about 300-200 mb.

Undercutting shear rips the guts out of systems...rather than just blowing the tops off. So...since it destroys their mid levels (and thus their ability to "stack")...it can be much more deadly...even when its not as strong.

ahh im surprised i didnt think of this. thanks.

[lrak]

And when she dies, will the energy still go up the east coast or travel west towards central america?

[SapphireSea]

I have a question for the pros here. I dont see any shear over the convection when I look at the visible loops. however, I do see ALOT of outflow. how can this be? Seems to me that the reason for lack of convection over the LLC is dry air not shear.

I may not be a pro, but dry air AND shear are responsible. You can clearly see some light streaks of clouds blowing off in higher storms. There is def shear on this.

A sheared system will have those high clouds streaking is one direction, the convection has them in all quadrants and they are spinning in a clockwise (anti-cyclonic) fashion.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-wv.html

Look closer. I see clouds being blown away probably consistent with what AFM just wrote. It is definitely there. I am not confusing the outflow. Its almost like smoke in the visible being blown NE.

[DanKellFla]

Here we go again, everyone writing her off. I will stick to my guns and say she survives and will be a hurricane down the road.

By any chance, can you tell when was the last time you saw Elvis?

[caribepr]

Glad you all are onto NEXT and calling it dead as we get an upgraded storm warning and rains expected to be serious enough to cause flooding and associated damage.

So sorry you who hoped for her to blow up have to deal witha blow out. Obviously, you don't live in the Caribbean neighborhood. I guess it would make some feel better if Erika was roaring through as a hurricane headed to Florida/Texas/NC so it could be an IMPORTANT storm.

Geeze, I thought we'd moved beyond this mentality - and I thought the head honchos were the example setters...I guess so.

[vacanechaser]

Here we go again, everyone writing her off. I will stick to my guns and say she survives and will be a hurricane down the road.

By any chance, can you tell when was the last time you saw Elvis?

well, last time i looked, she still fairly good... so maybe elvis has not left the building just yet!!



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[deltadog03]

Not to mention a TON of dry air around.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Well GFS never loses her thru 78 hrs this run and keeps here N of DR..