ATL HANNA: Extratropical - Discussion

[tolakram]

[txwatcher91]

Thanks for that map tolakram, that one shows the center movement very well. What are your thoughts on her intensity?

[jabber]

Sure does appear to be slightly left of the forecast plot. Would be much easier to track with an eye

[orion]

Looking at this loop http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-rgb.html and turning on the forecast points and the SSTs and zooming in a little, looks like she'll be in 28 or 29C waters until landfall. Even a spot of 30C up near the outerbanks. With the upper level conditions finally more favorable and the warm waters, I think we could see a hurricane later on this evening... I don't think she'll get more than a weak cat 1 though. I've seen several posts talking about cooler waters near the shore, I don't think that's the case here... of course they are shallow, but with Hanna moving pretty quickly, I don't see that having an effect.

[capepoint]

I am located about 7 miles from cape lookout lighthouse, near Beaufort/Morehead City.
So far today, have had some squall lines move thru, very heavy rain in each one, and at least 4 waterspouts moved ashore. Generally rain has caused ponding on roads but drained off quickly. Have not heard of any damage from the spouts, other than limbs down.
Since about 4pm, it has been sunny and winds are not too bad, less than 20 i'd say. Surf at Atlantic Beach is frisky but not giant, maybe 4-6 feet with an offshore break.
The main problem I have noticed today, is the above normal tide. High tide at the inlet was at about 12 noon. At about 3pm sound water was within 1 foot of being on US70 downeast. At the time that I was down there, it was still coming in hard, as evidenced by the flow under the bridges. We are in a period of astronomical high tide anyhow, so this will not help. I fear that soundside flooding will be somewhat higher than has been forcasted. Even now we should be nearing low tide, and the tide is as high as it was at the time of high tide. Should be very interesting tonight between midnight and 4 am. I am pretty sure that NC 12 near Cedar Island will be impassible due to sound overwash tonight, and US70 downeast will have water over it in some locations. Beach erosion will be pretty bad I think, as out beach south of Cape Lookout runs east-west, so will get the full windshift. Tide was already up to the main dune line today, and should be higher tonight.
Will report back anything of significance tonight and tomorrow.
Everybody be safe.

Oh Yeah, My personal non-official uneducated forcast.....landfall between Cape Fear and Surf City, 75 MHP.

[jimpsummers]

I think this thing might go in at Georgetown since it is veering a bit west...

[seahawkjd]

So what is it doing now? I haven't been able to check the weather for a couple of hours.

[HurricaneRobert]

Is this an eye?



Link

[jabber]

Is this an eye?



Link

No just some really cold cloud tops...

[Pebbles]

Best she's looked in quite a while.

Had a tornado in Carteret co. Around 12:30

Can you please let me know where this was located. My parents live there. Thanks

[seahawkjd]

It started over the sound and then was supposed to come up broad creek to cedar point and then north of Swansboro. Honestly, I was driving through it at the time and I'm not sure it ever made it to land. Had me nervous though looking for a place to take shelter.

[Chilly_Water]

I spy an eye.

[HURAKAN]

There is no eye, just an overshooting top.

[jabber]

There is no eye, just an overshooting top.

Them are some cold tops... is recon in the storm?

[Pebbles]

It started over the sound and then was supposed to come up broad creek to cedar point and then north of Swansboro. Honestly, I was driving through it at the time and I'm not sure it ever made it to land. Had me nervous though looking for a place to take shelter.

Oh I missread Carteret and thought it was Craven (my bad *blushes*) Glad to hear your ok! Sounds like you got quite the scare though.

[Sirius LeWindy]

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=SPAG1

43 kts and 51 kts gust.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

It is close to hurricane strength, if it can strengthen just a little more it will become a cane again.

[tolakram]

Warm spot in the middle.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Warm spot in the middle.

That looks like a eye to me. I think it could be a cane.

[jabber]

Warm spot in the middle.

That looks like a eye to me. I think it could be a cane.

It cannot have an eye its not a cane... or is it.... only recon can tell us