ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIKA (06L)

[HurricaneQueen]

HI MJ,

Many of us are mindful of those of you living in the Caribbean, my friend. Hopefully, this will bypass you and all the other islands as nothing more than a summer storm which we come to expect in the tropics.

Be safe,

Lynn

Glad you all are onto NEXT and calling it dead as we get an upgraded storm warning and rains expected to be serious enough to cause flooding and associated damage.

So sorry you who hoped for her to blow up have to deal witha blow out. Obviously, you don't live in the Caribbean neighborhood. I guess it would make some feel better if Erika was roaring through as a hurricane headed to Florida/Texas/NC so it could be an IMPORTANT storm.

Geeze, I thought we'd moved beyond this mentality - and I thought the head honchos were the example setters...I guess so.

[SapphireSea]

Glad you all are onto NEXT and calling it dead as we get an upgraded storm warning and rains expected to be serious enough to cause flooding and associated damage.

So sorry you who hoped for her to blow up have to deal witha blow out. Obviously, you don't live in the Caribbean neighborhood. I guess it would make some feel better if Erika was roaring through as a hurricane headed to Florida/Texas/NC so it could be an IMPORTANT storm.

Geeze, I thought we'd moved beyond this mentality - and I thought the head honchos were the example setters...I guess so.

As far as winds and surge damage yes, people are going to say NEXT. All conditions expected in your area are covered by the storm warning and any flood advisories that may issued by your local weather authority. The main argument on this board is in basic; the pros and those who agree on dissipation of the storm SYSTEM, and the people who still hold to the hope of regeneration and intensification. All may or may not be based on sound meteorological data, as stated in the disclaimers from amateurs.

We feel sympathy for those who have an issue with this system, but I don't see anyone downplaying the damage the rains will cause. Especially not the mods/pros.

[RNGR]

Glad you all are onto NEXT and calling it dead as we get an upgraded storm warning and rains expected to be serious enough to cause flooding and associated damage.

So sorry you who hoped for her to blow up have to deal witha blow out. Obviously, you don't live in the Caribbean neighborhood. I guess it would make some feel better if Erika was roaring through as a hurricane headed to Florida/Texas/NC so it could be an IMPORTANT storm.

Geeze, I thought we'd moved beyond this mentality - and I thought the head honchos were the example setters...I guess so.

As far as winds and surge damage yes, people are going to say NEXT. All conditions expected in your area are covered by the storm warning and any flood advisories that may issued by your local weather authority. The main argument on this board is in basic; the pros and those who agree on dissipation of the storm SYSTEM, and the people who still hold to the hope of regeneration and intensification. All may or may not be based on sound meteorological data, as stated in the disclaimers from amateurs.

We feel sympathy for those who have an issue with this system, but I don't see anyone downplaying the damage the rains will cause. Especially not the mods/pros.

Exactly, by next we mean that this system is not an issue as far as intensification is concerned. stay safe anyway because Erika is sure to dump alot of rain.

[lrak]

http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?69

So all this spinning is in the upper levels?

How many levels of shear are there? I thought shear just cut the heads off and the storms died. I havent' ever heard you guys say anything about LL shear?

Thanks

lrak AKA karl

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Hopefully this will quickly fall apart so it isn't so bad for the islands as the energy passes.

An obviously weaker Erika will be more likely to travel west won't it? -vs. the WNW/NW NHC path of a storm. What is to become of all that energy? Could this regenerate once in the Bahamas, or once under Cuba (if it stays on a more western path like the BAMMS were showing yesterday)?

Concern is always high when there is a strong wave in the area. Is the shear supposed to stay strong throughout the caribbean through next week? If not, I wouldn't write this off as completely dead unless absorbed by a front or over Mexico/CONUS.

[Shewtinstar]

Erica had lived an amazing life even though it was rather short. Erica was a great friend; she was the kind of storm that spins by you when you need to do some tracking.
What is it that we remember when we think of Erica? I think everyone who knows her very well would agree with me on this. It was her sense of humor. We would go to bed thinking this is the end and we would wake up to a new hope of survival.
Erica’s death was not sudden. I remember when I heard the news I simply could not believe it. We all sat by and watched her slow demise. Erica was too young but as it slowly occurred to me I have realized that Erica indeed lived her life wonderfully. Erica was well-loved and I’m sure she’ll do much more in heaven. I will forever be grateful to have known Erica.
Erica is in heaven now and we are here at her funeral. This is not the time for us to grieve her death but it’s our time to celebrate her life. Don’t ever forget Erica.
So at this moment when we are about to lay her to rest, let’s all think back and remember how Erica touched our lives. How she made us laugh. This is not the moment for us to shed our tears but we should all be thankful that we were given the chance to have known a storm named Erica
Erica will forever be missed but I know in the right time, I will meet Erica again.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

hahaha! Welcome to the board!

[SapphireSea]

http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?69

So all this spinning is in the upper levels?

How many levels of shear are there? I thought shear just cut the heads off and the storms died. I havent' ever heard you guys say anything about LL shear?

Thanks

lrak AKA karl

Shear is basically the difference of wind dir and speed between the major layers of the atmosphere. In this case shear between 350mb 23kt and 200mb 8kt has been present (according to the soundings closest to the storm). It can happen at any layer. The fact that the higher windspeed is happening in a lower layer means that it is undercut shear. I believe.

[Full8s]

Erica had lived an amazing life even though it was rather short. Erica was a great friend; she was the kind of storm that spins by you when you need to do some tracking.
What is it that we remember when we think of Erica? I think everyone who knows her very well would agree with me on this. It was her sense of humor. We would go to bed thinking this is the end and we would wake up to a new hope of survival.
Erica’s death was not sudden. I remember when I heard the news I simply could not believe it. We all sat by and watched her slow demise. Erica was too young but as it slowly occurred to me I have realized that Erica indeed lived her life wonderfully. Erica was well-loved and I’m sure she’ll do much more in heaven. I will forever be grateful to have known Erica.
Erica is in heaven now and we are here at her funeral. This is not the time for us to grieve her death but it’s our time to celebrate her life. Don’t ever forget Erica.
So at this moment when we are about to lay her to rest, let’s all think back and remember how Erica touched our lives. How she made us laugh. This is not the moment for us to shed our tears but we should all be thankful that we were given the chance to have known a storm named Erica
Erica will forever be missed but I know in the right time, I will meet Erica again.

Bravo! Perhaps a few hours premature, but well said indeed!
I Love it!

[Air Force Met]

well, last time i looked, she still fairly good... so maybe elvis has not left the building just yet!!

We looking at the same storm...or did you last look at her a couple of days ago?

'Cause right now she's pitiful. Tops are warming...center well exposed and weak...lots of dry air...undercutting shear.

Looks terrible.

[caribepr]

Shewtinstar, except for spelling the name wrong, that was pretty funny.

As for the other responses to my earlier post, I'd be more than pleased to hear the fat lady sing...but I haven't yet (and as I seem to have to repeat each year, I'm not saying people WANT devastation in the islands and I believe awareness has grown a lot over the years...what I'm saying is that what might look like a *summer storm* to somone in Miami - and I lived there for years, so I know - looks very different here, so writing off what is still happening seems quite odd).

[Shewtinstar]

LOL, did I spell it wrong? Jeez, Louise. And I tried so hard!

[Cuber]

... weaker Erika will be more likely to travel west won't it? -vs. the WNW/NW NHC path of a storm. What is to become of all that energy? Could this regenerate once in the Bahamas, or once under Cuba (if it stays on a more western path like the BAMMS were showing yesterday)?
Concern is always high when there is a strong wave in the area. Is the shear supposed to stay strong throughout the caribbean through next week? If not, I wouldn't write this off as completely dead unless absorbed by a front or over Mexico/CONUS.

As confusing as this storm has been even with continued shear, regeneration this time of year in the Caribbean, Florida Straights, GOM or the Atlantic between SoFla and the Bahamas is always possible ... I'm gonna keep watching and waiting

[deltadog03]

LOL...GFS now (for the FIRST time) develops this into a formatable storm/maybe hurricane...looks to be a recurve once it hits the bahamas.

[deltadog03]

well, last time i looked, she still fairly good... so maybe elvis has not left the building just yet!!

We looking at the same storm...or did you last look at her a couple of days ago?

'Cause right now she's pitiful. Tops are warming...center well exposed and weak...lots of dry air...undercutting shear.

Looks terrible.

hey bud!! loooong time no talk...I agree it looks TERRIBLE, but for some reason the GFS finally develops this one..12z run wow

[Evil Jeremy]

What are everyone's thoughts about the latest model runs favoring recurve again?

[Evil Jeremy]

delta, what do you make of the new recurve models?

[DESTRUCTION5]

LOL...GFS now (for the FIRST time) develops this into a formatable storm/maybe hurricane...looks to be a recurve once it hits the bahamas.

Indeed it does..

[deltadog03]

I give up!! Is that allowed?

[vacanechaser]

well, last time i looked, she still fairly good... so maybe elvis has not left the building just yet!!

We looking at the same storm...or did you last look at her a couple of days ago?

'Cause right now she's pitiful. Tops are warming...center well exposed and weak...lots of dry air...undercutting shear.

Looks terrible.

ok. let me re-phrase that.. she is looking fairly well compared to the rest we have seen this season... excerpt for Bill.... i know the covection is warming, however, for such a weak system, the cloud canope if fairly large and for the most part, still has some decent covection... looks better than danny did!!!


Jesse V. Bass III
http://ww.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team