Texas Winter 2014-2015

[Tireman4]

The truth is until a pattern change occurs (if) It's a safe bet to go with persistence. Also climatology is on wxman57's side. He is playing it smart. But some day...

I agree. If I were a met, totally would stick to climo. He is smart by doing that. You never know with meteorology. Remember in 2011 when the High Pressure Ridge of Death was forecast to move ( many, many, many times). It never did.

[Ralph's Weather]

The truth is until a pattern change occurs (if) It's a safe bet to go with persistence. Also climatology is on wxman57's side. He is playing it smart. But some day...

I agree. If I were a met, totally would stick to climo. He is smart by doing that. You never know with meteorology. Remember in 2011 when the High Pressure Ridge of Death was forecast to move ( many, many, many times). It never did.

Yep, though in winter the jet is faster so in theory things should be more changeable.

[wxman57]

The truth is until a pattern change occurs (if) It's a safe bet to go with persistence. Also climatology is on wxman57's side. He is playing it smart. But some day...

I agree. If I were a met, totally would stick to climo. He is smart by doing that. You never know with meteorology. Remember in 2011 when the High Pressure Ridge of Death was forecast to move ( many, many, many times). It never did.

The unusually warm water off the West U.S. Coast extending north to the Gulf of Alaska is playing a big role in the non-changing pressure pattern there. It takes a long time for such a SST pattern to change.

[Tireman4]

The unusually warm water off the West U.S. Coast extending north to the Gulf of Alaska is playing a big role in the non-changing pressure pattern there. It takes a long time for such a SST pattern to change.

Ok, I am game. I am just a historian, so I know nothing of these things. How long does it take for a SST pattern to change? Typically?

[BrokenGlassRepublicn]

No travel issues for my commute, just misery. My car thermometer held at 30 with consistent drizzle. Worst winter ever...so many near misses with temps within a few degrees of effecting a real event.

[wxman57]

The unusually warm water off the West U.S. Coast extending north to the Gulf of Alaska is playing a big role in the non-changing pressure pattern there. It takes a long time for such a SST pattern to change.

Ok, I am game. I am just a historian, so I know nothing of these things. How long does it take for a SST pattern to change? Typically?

Typically, months. Not days or weeks.

[CaptinCrunch]

32 and drizzle at the big airport. A lot of the metroplex may be awaking to ice on cars and patios this morning.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

it was 30 this morning with Ice covered car.

[Tireman4]

The unusually warm water off the West U.S. Coast extending north to the Gulf of Alaska is playing a big role in the non-changing pressure pattern there. It takes a long time for such a SST pattern to change.

Ok, I am game. I am just a historian, so I know nothing of these things. How long does it take for a SST pattern to change? Typically?

Typically, months. Not days or weeks.

Well, drat. If it is a cool spring and summer, I am game.

[WeatherNewbie]

No travel issues for my commute, just misery. My car thermometer held at 30 with consistent drizzle. Worst winter ever...so many near misses with temps within a few degrees of effecting a real event.

You must not commute North. Cars were spun out on the flyovers at DNT and PGBT.

Also, more than just rain was hitting my windshield as I pulled into the office. Nothing significant, but some of the precip was definitely bouncing off the car.

[Yukon Cornelius]

I don't know about anyone else but with all the misses at winter weather this season, a warm December and looks to be warm February, I am ready for spring and hopefully some nice North Texas spring thunderstorms.

[Tejas89]

Nice sheen of ice on everything this morning save for the roads. DFW still reporting 30 and FZDZ. A little surprised we don't have an advisory up for the northern 'plex.

[Ralph's Weather]

Looks like a big miss by every model this morning on the freezing drizzle even the shortest range ones. Even the new 15Z HRRR is as much as 5 degrees too warm and it does not show how widespread the drizzle is (I know drizzle is tricky to show as it comes from such a shallow layer). I have been concerned about this possibility for a few days and it looks like those concerns were valid. Though with no upper level moisture this was never going to be more than freezing drizzle with maybe a tiny bit of sleet. Arctic air always wins.

[Ntxw]

Oh don't worry guys, Pacific air will make its way in and near 80F. Such wonderful weather it will be to have spring early. Of course it will mean spring won't look anything like spring knowing the past two years.

[orangeblood]

The CFSv2, for what seems like the 1st time all winter, is very cold and wet for the latter half of the month into March. It nailed last month's warm spell and early Feb forecast from 20-25 days out. Ridge finally starts to retrograde by next weekend...

[Ntxw]

Still hovering near 30F at the noon hour in DFW. This air mass has some punch to it. I say we don't make 40 today.

[TheProfessor]

yeah, our temperature has actually dropped here this morning, it was 32 when I woke up, it now says 29 degrees.

[CaptinCrunch]

it's 32 here in DTN FTW, that forecasted high of lower 40's not going to happen. As for the weekend I noticed they brought highs back down to the mid and lower 70's from the 80 degree mark they had posted yesterday.

[wxman57]

Quite a ride for you folks up in the Dallas area this coming week. Clouds are slowly thinning out up there now, probably too late in the day to reach 40 though. I still see no signs of a significant pattern change to bring cold air to western Canada. Euro and GFS do indicate somewhat below normal temps across Texas starting late next week. Normal for Houston is about 45-65 this time of year, so even 10 degrees below normal would still not be anything extreme.

[Tireman4]

Well, Pitchers and catchers report soon....sigh...

[wxman57]

By the way, Happy Weatherman's Day to my fellow meteorologists on the forum. I'll always remember 25 years ago today after getting home on a swing shift around 10pm when 3 armed men tried to rob me. They failed. I was too quick on my feet for them.