Texas Winter 2021-2022

[gpsnowman]

Well since I probably won’t get any winter weather, maybe I can get one heck of a rain storm tomorrow. Models are hammering my area with over half a foot of rain.

Cold rain is better than no rain. Let's see how this crazy system unfolds, you might see a surprise. You never know.

[Iceresistance]

ICON, You are next!

[cheezyWXguy]

NAM sucks as usual,

nothing interesting on it

Agreed. 84 hours out isn’t very long, but the NAM tends to do wonky things at the end of its range

[Brent]

I really hope the NAM is just being the NAM cause even up here it sucks

[Ntxw]

NAM sucks as usual,

nothing interesting on it

It puts a lot of emphasis on the lead wave. Hey it does give Brent a solid sleetstorm!

[EnnisTx]

NAM sucks as usual,

nothing interesting on it

It puts a lot of emphasis on the lead wave. Hey it does give Brent a solid sleetstorm!

Everyone knows that he hates the snow, so maybe he would be happy with that…

[Brent]

NAM sucks as usual,

nothing interesting on it

It puts a lot of emphasis on the lead wave. Hey it does give Brent a solid sleetstorm!

I'm ok with it for a bit but it's gonna have to snow don't want to waste what could be one of my biggest snowstorms ever on sleet

[cheezyWXguy]

NAM sucks as usual,

nothing interesting on it

It puts a lot of emphasis on the lead wave. Hey it does give Brent a solid sleetstorm!

It also doesn’t dig the trough as far south as most of the globals do, given it’s relative long range, it is likely going to be playing catch up over the next few runs.

Ten dollary-doos says this model currently running late to the party will also be showing us fantasy depictions 36 hours from now, as it often does.

[HockeyTx82]

So at what point do we jump off the cliff? Thursday when it's 95F and sun?

I mean if for some reason this thing busts I'm really going to question all of the models. Are we just over hyping the chances or does this have potential?

Suffice to say NAM is basically in its 300hr window as of now? When does it really start to lock things in?

We also have 163 guests and lots of registered people on..... don't think I've ever seen it that big before.

[cheezyWXguy]

So at what point do we jump off the cliff? Thursday when it's 95F and sun?

I mean if for some reason this thing busts I'm really going to question all of the models. Are we just over hyping the chances or does this have potential?

Suffice to say NAM is basically in its 300hr window as of now? When does it really start to lock things in?

We also have 163 guests and lots of registered people on..... don't think I've ever seen it that big before.

As far as I know, the NAM starts to hit its stride in the 48-60 hour range. Beyond 60 seems to be hit or miss

[EnnisTx]

So at what point do we jump off the cliff? Thursday when it's 95F and sun?

I mean if for some reason this thing busts I'm really going to question all of the models. Are we just over hyping the chances or does this have potential?

Suffice to say NAM is basically in its 300hr window as of now? When does it really start to lock things in?

We also have 163 guests and lots of registered people on..... don't think I've ever seen it that big before.

Need to barrow a Xanax? It’s not a question of if or when, but what type(s) and how much.

[TheProfessor]

Good trends on most models not named the NAM or SREF for me today. Don't think we'll see anything close to as far north as the SREF or NAM do. Sure as heck don't think I'll need to worry about sleet mixing into snow here except on the onset lol. GEFS looks great. EFI did shift north a touch but still highlights Southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma for snow.

[orangeblood]

So at what point do we jump off the cliff? Thursday when it's 95F and sun?

I mean if for some reason this thing busts I'm really going to question all of the models. Are we just over hyping the chances or does this have potential?

Suffice to say NAM is basically in its 300hr window as of now? When does it really start to lock things in?

We also have 163 guests and lots of registered people on..... don't think I've ever seen it that big before.

Agreed, NAM usually doesn’t start grabbing on until 48-60 hrs in…takes awhile to get the 500mb orientation right

[wxman57]

So at what point do we jump off the cliff? Thursday when it's 95F and sun?

I mean if for some reason this thing busts I'm really going to question all of the models. Are we just over hyping the chances or does this have potential?

Suffice to say NAM is basically in its 300hr window as of now? When does it really start to lock things in?

We also have 163 guests and lots of registered people on..... don't think I've ever seen it that big before.

We won't really know any more tomorrow. Maybe after the 12Z Tuesday model runs we can say with some confidence precip amounts. Might not be until the 00Z Wednesday runs when the event will be "locked in" by the models. Sunny and 95F does sound good. Looking like 26-28F here on Saturday for the coldest day. My bananas are already dead. No harm from a freeze.

P.S. Had an emergency here this morning. Installed a new light socket for a hall closet and had to cut power to this side of the house so I wouldn't get electrocuted. New socket & light are fine. HOWEVER, when I checked my electric blanket after I had cut the power to install the light socket, all 5 heat levels were lit and the blanket would not warm up. I tried unplugging from the power strip. Nope. Tried unplugging from power and unplugging cord from blanket then plugging back in. Nope. Went to Amazon to arrange a return & exchange. New one was scheduled to arrive Tuesday (ahead of cold air). Great! After being unplugged for about 8 hours I tried plugging it in one more time, just for the heck of it, and it's working again! Cancelled return & replacement with Amazon. No interruption in my warmth this week. Looking like 26-28F on Saturday for the coldest day.

[TheProfessor]

So at what point do we jump off the cliff? Thursday when it's 95F and sun?

I mean if for some reason this thing busts I'm really going to question all of the models. Are we just over hyping the chances or does this have potential?

Suffice to say NAM is basically in its 300hr window as of now? When does it really start to lock things in?

We also have 163 guests and lots of registered people on..... don't think I've ever seen it that big before.

We won't really know any more tomorrow. Maybe after the 12Z Tuesday model runs we can say with some confidence precip amounts. Might not be until the 00Z Wednesday runs when the event will be "locked in" by the models. Sunny and 95F does sound good. Looking like 26-28F here on Saturday for the coldest day. My bananas are already dead. No harm from a freeze.

P.S. Had an emergency here this morning. Installed a new light socket for a hall closet and had to cut power to this side of the house so I wouldn't get electrocuted. New socket & light are fine. HOWEVER, when I checked my electric blanket after I had cut the power to install the light socket, all 5 heat levels were lit and the blanket would not warm up. I tried unplugging from the power strip. Nope. Tried unplugging from power and unplugging cord from blanket then plugging back in. Nope. Went to Amazon to arrange a return & exchange. New one was scheduled to arrive Tuesday (ahead of cold air). Great! After being unplugged for about 8 hours I tried plugging it in one more time, just for the heck of it, and it's working again! Cancelled return & replacement with Amazon. No interruption in my warmth this week. Looking like 26-28F on Saturday for the coldest day.

12z Tuesday is about when this will get sampled on the west coast so that sounds about right. Until then we'll continue to see windshield wipers.

[Ralph's Weather]

18Z GFS has me at 23 Thursday at noon with heavy rain. Warm nose very stout. PWATS over 1". Could get nasty here if that is right. Other models are warmer with it all rain until tail end. So much depends of how far SW the trough digs. If it goes into northern Mexico all bets are off and Texas will jackpot. If it tracks north of El Paso then ice for N TX and less impacts for Central and East Texas.

That trough will ejects NE along the front so assuming as usual the front drives further south that could drag the trough across south Central Texas which would put N TX in prime heavy snow. Lots to nail down but regardless this will be a major winter storm for the state. If it's historic or not is yet to be determined.

[Ntxw]

ICON holds fairly steady (besides the fact it gives Brent a lot of sleet). One thing I will note, subtle shifts on it do occur. It spent some time trending slight north before ejecting but lately have shifted southward before coming out and slower.

[Haris]

RGEM time

[txtwister78]

RGEM through 84 hours.... usually pretty good indication of what 0z CMC is going to look like. Has snow accumulation across the TX panhandle into Oklahoma

[Ntxw]

[url]https://i.ibb.co/WcMZpDT/ex3ECedn.png [/url]

RGEM time

Looks a lot like 18z GFS.