ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[CalmBeforeStorm]

My best radar-estimated possible LLC is near 18.8N, 68.7W. On visible imagery, though, it seems like it might be a little north and west of this position, though.

- Jay

18.3 68.5

[CrazyC83]

If they do find a closed LLC, this will be fay.

17:49:00Z 18.75N 67.77W 962.3 mb
(~ 28.42 inHg) 435 meters
(~ 1,427 feet) 1011.7 mb
(~ 29.88 inHg) - From 139° at 35 knots
(From the SE at ~ 40.2 mph) 21.9°C
(~ 71.4°F) 17.0°C
(~ 62.6°F) 36 knots
(~ 41.4 mph) 45 knots
(~ 51.7 mph) 0 mm/hr
(~ 0 in/hr) 43.8 knots (~ 50.3 mph)
Tropical Storm 125.0%

Correct. 49 kt FL winds support 44 at the surface, and 50 kt SFMR found which might be a bit high as it is near land, but still works out to 45 kt. It is either TS Fay or a powerful wave.

[HURAKAN]

[loro-rojo]

Two of the local channels here in Miami are already doing hourly updates on this system, and are calling for people to start preparing for a possible hurricane...

which channels are telling people to prepare for a hurricane?

NBC6, Local 10 and WSVN are now all doing the hourly updates. All 3 pretty much said that we need to keep an eye out for it, and it is now the time to begin preparations for a possible hurricane. They all said that there was uncertainty regarding intensity, but since if anything forms it will be affecting us by Sunday.. we need to start preparing now.

[OuterBanker]

Geez, just when I thought no one on the OBX was aware of this (which is a good thing) a customer came in and said that TWC was mentioning it. That Fla to NC should pay attention. Another came in and said something about a possible cat 2 or 3 heading north our way next week. Don't know the source though (thought it was TWC, but even they wouldn't do that).

[fci]

Everyone should keep in mind the unpredictability of tropical storms. There was no "good reason" to think Hurricane Charlie would suddenly take a hard right into Punta Gorda, Florida -- but it did.

Bolded statement is false. There was abundant evidence for the turn. Additionally, 1933 likely featured more than 21 NS, so I always believed (rare) seasons with more than 21 NS were possible.

I have yet to see any conclusive evidence supporting the possibility of a major hurricane from this one. I'm not condescending; I'm merely asking for proof or possible answers.

QUick jump in here:

I think the reaction to your original comment was swift because you appeared to ridicule those who cited the chance for a major YESTERDAY, not today.

[gatorcane]

Important: please pay attention to the NHC's official guidance on this system. That is the most accurate guidance.

Thanks

[MiamiensisWx]

Everyone should keep in mind the unpredictability of tropical storms. There was no "good reason" to think Hurricane Charlie would suddenly take a hard right into Punta Gorda, Florida -- but it did.

Bolded statement is false. There was abundant evidence for the turn. Additionally, 1933 likely featured more than 21 NS, so I always believed (rare) seasons with more than 21 NS were possible.

I have yet to see any conclusive evidence supporting the possibility of a major hurricane from this one. I'm not condescending; I'm merely asking for proof or possible answers.

QUick jump in here:

I think the reaction to your original comment was swift because you appeared to ridicule those who cited the chance for a major YESTERDAY, not today.

I was only referring to today... correct.

[Canelaw99]

LIVE VIDEO: Miami-Dade County Holds Media Briefing Regarding Tropical Disturbance \(2:30 p.m.\)
The Miami-Dade County Department of Emergency Management and Homeland Security
will hold a media briefing at 2:30 p.m. to discuss the tropical disturbance
that is churning in the area of the Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico.


MORE DETAILS: <http://www.nbc6.net/tu/5A65gVBrZ.html>

[HURAKAN]

[cycloneye]

SSD dvorak:

15/1745 UTC 18.1N 68.6W T2.5/2.5 92L -- Atlantic Ocean

[oyster_reef]

12z CMC, GFDL, GFS and UKM all have this as a GOM'er

[GreenSky]

Enough of this questioning the NHC and making assumptions you have no way of proving. This is the final warning to EVERYONE concerning this.

It is one thing to discuss how one thinks the NHC is incorrect and provide support. It is another to make statements that you have no way of proving. Let's stay with the first part of this paragraph please!![/quote]

I remember a discussion here on Storm2k about how systems in the GOM are usually handled more aggressively and upgraded sooner than Atlantic invests...this speculative view was shared by many credible posters on Storm2k. I tried looking for it but it is buried somewhere in the annals.
Other pro-mets have also chimed in their surprise, especially yesterday, about 92L not being upgraded. Not bashing the NHC, but just wondering what's on their minds. I think its fine to question as long as it is done respectfully.

[gatorcane]

well can we agree Hispaniola just isn't weakening this thing as we hoped??? Gosh it keeps looking better by the hour

[NEXRAD]

My best radar-estimated possible LLC is near 18.8N, 68.7W. On visible imagery, though, it seems like it might be a little north and west of this position, though.

- Jay

So with that current position and its current heading, 92L should be skirmishing the northern coast of DR...not the southern coast, right?

Or do you think it is going to be going right through DR's spine, like FOX13WEATHER suggested?

I take your analysis seriously NexRad, always a pleasure reading your analysis.

Thanks much; with a developing system interacting with land, however, the circulation can dissipate and redevelop quite readily - especially when there's lack of alignment with mid-level circulation features.

- Jay

[fci]

Two of the local channels here in Miami are already doing hourly updates on this system, and are calling for people to start preparing for a possible hurricane...

You have got to be kidding me.

It is over hype like this that kills the credibility of "real" threats.
This is not even a Tropical Storm or even a Tropical Depression and there are hourly updates.

Sheesh!!!!

[Extremeweatherguy]

If recon finds a defined low-level circulation, then I think the NHC really has no other choice but to upgrade this. The 47KT surface winds being found out there right now are pretty impressive.

[CalmBeforeStorm]

SSD dvorak:

15/1745 UTC 18.1N 68.6W T2.5/2.5 92L -- Atlantic Ocean

Right about where I thought it was.

[oyster_reef]

well can we agree Hispaniola just isn't weakening this thing as we hoped??? Gosh it keeps looking better by the hour

it's just now getting on the island.... we will know much more in 6 hours.
Patience.

[Rainband]

Statement as of 12:40 PM EDT on August 15, 2008
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
1239 PM Fri Aug 15 2008

... All persons in west central and southwest Florida should monitor
the latest tropical weather information...

The low pressure area over the Puerto Rico and Hispaniola continues
to move west. While this system has not become a tropical depression
or tropical storm yet... atmospheric conditions are favorable for
further organization and the system could reach depression or storm
status later today.

Computer models suggest that this system could pose a threat to
southwest and west central Florida early next week. However... there
is a very high level of uncertainty regarding the track and
intensity of the system as it approaches the Bahamas and Cuba over
the weekend. As a result... residents and visitors of west central
and southwest Florida are encouraged to keep a close watch on this
system throughout the upcoming weekend.

This is a good time for residents to go over their hurricane plans.
Visitors to Florida are encouraged to read up on initial
preparedness actions that may needed. The following are basic
suggested actions that should be taken at this time:

Check batteries for radios and flashlights... drinking water... canned
or dried food... first aid supplies and prescription medicine. Have a
sufficient supply of Cash as access to credit cards and automated
Cash machines may not be available without power. Check fuel levels
on automobiles... generators and chain saws.

Make initial plans to determine where you will likely be in case of
an approaching storm. Check whether you live in an evacuation zone.

For the latest information regarding this situation... please stay
tuned to NOAA Weather Radio... as well as information from local
government officials and media outlets. You can also monitor the
latest statements... as well as possible watches and warnings... from
the National Weather Service office in Ruskin on the web at
weather.Gov/tampabay. Information from the National Hurricane Center
can be found on weather.Gov by clicking on the hurricanes link.