Tropical Storm Chris

[Recurve]

It looks to me like the convection expanded over the LLC and made it look like it came open. Any pros have a comment.

That's exactly what I thought.
I'm trying to look at recon now and see what kind of pressures and low level winds they're seeing.

[bayoubebe]

Well, this is weird.

Some of you are saying that Chris has died, or just about died, and then another handful of you are saying he's still alive and is looking better???

What is even funnier is that at the exact same time on 2 different threads, separate posters were posting these opposite reports.

Come on you people! Can't you all please say the same thing for folks like me who don't have a clue about all the technicalities and just want a summary from the experts here?

Y'all confuse me so.

Remember, some of us are simpletons when it comes to the weather and rely on your expertise.

I guess its just everyone speaking out loud to one another, getting different opinions. Sorry for the confusion

No apology neccessary. I'm teasing.

Confused a little? yes.

But, this appears to be a very difficult little storm to predict.

I enjoy reading what you guys have to say for the most part.

It's appreciated for, once again I repeat, Simpletons such as myself.

This is a great site, and I'm so happy I found out about it.

Mega props to those who run it!

[The_OD_42]

3:45 IR 2 loops shows the LLC quite a distance north of the "current location"?

[mobilebay]

922
SXXX50 KNHC 040443
AF307 0703A CHRIS HDOB 05 KNHC
0431. 1858N 06549W 06873 0410 071 016 147 177 017 07373 0000000000
0432 1859N 06551W 06978 0416 068 016 159 179 016 07485 0000000000
0432. 1901N 06553W 07086 0423 054 018 167 177 018 07601 0000000000
0433 1903N 06555W 07183 0428 051 021 171 173 022 07703 0000000000
0433. 1905N 06556W 07259 0433 051 022 173 177 023 07784 0000000000
0434 1907N 06558W 07305 0441 044 023 179 179 023 07838 0000000000
0434. 1909N 06600W 07317 0439 035 022 181 181 022 07848 0000000000
0435 1910N 06601W 07315 0436 040 023 179 189 024 07843 0000000000
0435. 1912N 06603W 07316 0434 042 020 179 189 021 07842 0000000000
0436 1914N 06605W 07314 0432 044 021 183 189 023 07838 0000000000
0436. 1916N 06607W 07316 0431 045 022 187 187 023 07839 0000000000
0437 1918N 06608W 07316 0433 048 020 191 191 020 07841 0000000000
0437. 1920N 06610W 07313 0433 054 021 191 191 022 07838 0000000000
0438 1922N 06612W 07315 0435 051 020 189 189 020 07843 0000000000
0438. 1924N 06614W 07314 0436 050 018 187 187 018 07842 0000000000
0439 1926N 06616W 07316 0437 040 019 191 199 021 07845 0000000000
0439. 1928N 06618W 07312 0438 035 022 189 199 024 07842 0000000000
0440 1930N 06620W 07316 0439 038 025 187 191 025 07846 0000000000
0440. 1932N 06622W 07313 0442 032 024 187 187 025 07847 0000000000
0441 1934N 06623W 07310 0442 033 024 185 189 025 07844 0000000000
;

[Recurve]

Thanks. Can someone give the column labels or point to the thread that has it?

[The_OD_42]

No apology neccessary. I'm teasing.

Confused a little? yes.

But, this appears to be a very difficult little storm to predict.

I enjoy reading what you guys have to say for the most part.

It's appreciated for, once again I repeat, Simpletons such as myself.

This is a great site, and I'm so happy I found out about it.

Mega props to those who run it!

Well, as a fellow Simpleton, I agree with you as well. Im just trying to learn as much as I go along. Everyone has been a great help.

[senorpepr]

Thanks. Can someone give the column labels or point to the thread that has it?

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=85603

[mobilebay]

I don't have a decoder for you but i can keep you updated. top winds so far 25 Knots well SE of center.

[HouTXmetro]

3:45 IR 2 loops shows the LLC quite a distance north of the "current location"?

It sure does, and I would argue the convection is still on the southern and southeastern side of Chris.

[tgenius]

Ir you see the 4:15 its even more evident it is north of the forecast points.

[Recurve]

3:45 IR 2 loops shows the LLC quite a distance north of the "current location"?

It sure does, and I would argue the convection is still on the southern and southeastern side of Chris.

Very much so. Nice blob not appearing as sheared, but nothing feeding the north or east side, more shear there, less inflow, drier air too maybe.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

25 knots=.8=20 knots at the surface.

[bayoubebe]

Well, as a fellow Simpleton, I agree with you as well. Im just trying to learn as much as I go along. Everyone has been a great help.

Nice to know I'm not the only one. LOL

Hopefully, we will have a better idea on what Chris wants to do in the next couple of days.

The unknown is rough.

[Category6]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-ir2.html

Once it gets past that strong shear from the NE I think we may start to see some convection firing up on the northern and western parts of this storm.

[mobilebay]

3:45 IR 2 loops shows the LLC quite a distance north of the "current location"?

It sure does, and I would argue the convection is still on the southern and southeastern side of Chris.

Very much so. Nice blob not appearing as sheared, but nothing feeding the north or east side, more shear there, less inflow, drier air too maybe.

The center is acually under the NW corner of the Convetion. This is confusing just like when the opposite happened last night.

[Category6]

Is it just me, or on the 4:15 frame it is beginning to look like the center is TRYING to wrap around the blob of convection? (instead of the other way around)

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-ir2.html

[The_OD_42]

3:45 IR 2 loops shows the LLC quite a distance north of the "current location"?

It sure does, and I would argue the convection is still on the southern and southeastern side of Chris.

Very much so. Nice blob not appearing as sheared, but nothing feeding the north or east side, more shear there, less inflow, drier air too maybe.

The center is acually under the NW corner of the Convetion. This is confusing just like when the opposite happened last night.

you're right...it is confusing.

[mobilebay]

476
SXXX50 KNHC 040453
AF307 0703A CHRIS HDOB 06 KNHC
0441. 1936N 06625W 07312 0442 033 024 185 189 025 07846 0000000000
0442 1938N 06627W 07311 0442 038 024 185 191 025 07845 0000000000
0442. 1940N 06629W 07313 0441 044 028 183 193 029 07846 0000000000
0443 1942N 06631W 07314 0441 043 028 185 193 028 07847 0000000000
0443. 1944N 06633W 07314 0443 035 026 189 189 027 07849 0000000000
0444 1946N 06635W 07314 0443 037 026 185 193 026 07848 0000000000
0444. 1948N 06637W 07312 0442 043 027 187 193 027 07846 0000000000
0445 1950N 06639W 07313 0441 046 025 191 191 026 07846 0000000000
0445. 1952N 06640W 07315 0443 046 025 191 195 026 07850 0000000000
0446 1954N 06642W 07312 0444 043 026 185 209 026 07849 0000000000
0446. 1956N 06644W 07312 0444 044 024 185 209 025 07848 0000000000
0447 1958N 06646W 07313 0444 045 024 187 215 024 07849 0000000000
0447. 2000N 06648W 07313 0443 047 023 191 219 024 07848 0000000000
0448 2002N 06650W 07313 0445 044 024 189 223 024 07849 0000000000
0448. 2003N 06652W 07313 0444 041 024 189 217 024 07849 0000000000
0449 2005N 06654W 07313 0445 032 023 189 221 024 07850 0000000000
0449. 2007N 06656W 07312 0447 028 023 185 219 023 07851 0000000000
0450 2009N 06659W 07313 0446 027 021 185 227 022 07851 0000000000
0450. 2011N 06701W 07312 0447 031 021 185 229 021 07851 0000000000
0451 2013N 06703W 07312 0446 035 021 185 235 021 07849 0000000000
;

[Extremeweatherguy]

I think I am going to go to sleep and see where this thing is at in the morning. Chris is starting to take a toll on me. Too many confusing moments.

[Recurve]

the center looks to be rolling a bit above the forecast points, but that's small and short-term.
If the center gets up by the turks and the shear relaxes, has potential then. Hoping for a strong ridge to drive it to land before it can strew over the bahamas.