ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - DISCUSSION

[Sanibel]

I think the steering guidance is still west:

[Evil Jeremy]

Still 80 MPH winds with the new advisory.

[cyclonic chronic]

143330 2435N 09437W 8429 01429 9935 +170 +165 138090 092 052 006 00
143400 2436N 09436W 8425 01435 9937 +171 +165 137089 090 053 006 00
143430 2437N 09435W 8425 01440 9942 +170 +164 138090 091 052 007 00


finally broke into the 90's at flight level

[tolakram]

Ok, here's a pic from yesterday evening and one of the most recent pics. You tell me which way it's moving.

[Evil Jeremy]

New recon flight just left the ground.

[RachelAnna]

By the "untrained eye" it appears that the westward movement has begun.

Weather channel just said movement at this time is North West. Interesting.

[Evil Jeremy]

By the "untrained eye" it appears that the westward movement has begun.

Weather channel just said movement at this time is North West. Interesting.

TWC is likely repeating what the official advisory says, which is indeed NW.

[AdamFirst]

According to Brownsville long-range radar, NW or NNW is its current heading.

It's got to turn sudden to the left now to verify the current track.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... O&loop=yes

[drezee]

Ok, here's a pic from yesterday evening and one of the most recent pics. You tell me which way it's moving.

That is what I was looking for...that tower exploding in the NE quad is the "fist"...it will wrap around the eye wall over the next couple of hours...a period of rapid deepening almost always follows...and the eye clears...

[wx247]

Per the looks of things on the channels I have been perusing, the people in the Brownsville area are taking this system pretty lightly. Maybe I am being a bit overdramatic since I haven't ridden out a tropical system before, but if I saw this image plus been paying attention to the recent NW movement, I might be a little more concerned:

[tolakram]

Here's a crude overlay of both pics with a line I made in between the two centers (whose position I guessed at).

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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

THIS IS NOT A FORECAST OR EVEN ACCURATE.

There, disclaimers away ......

[TexasF6]

I just put the tropical plot points forecasted for Alex on where he is now? He is Northeast of where he is supposed to be.....I love the new tropical floater one! so many new toys.....but this is not good...complacency in B-ville..........that track will not verify

[Flyinman]

I do not know about Brownsville, but from what I saw on the news the residents of South Padre were not taking this lightly at all after experiencing Dolly. Looks like we may all be a liitle surprised after all as Alex is doing what he does best.

[CourierPR]

Those folks in Brownsville had better wake up and smell the coffee.

[wx247]

Tornado Warning for Brownsville... text of warning is in the conditions thread.

[LAwxrgal]

Those folks in Brownsville had better wake up and smell the coffee.

If I were in Brownsville (indeed anywhere in deep south Texas) right now I'd be watching very carefully and making preparations to head for higher ground. When these storms miss their targets they usually miss to the right, and the way the Texas coastline is shaped, any little wobble will make a difference in the final landfall point. And since Alex is so big and has a large circulation, effects are going to be felt over a large area.

[A1A]

Maybe it's an intensification wobble and not "a move north".

Always a possibility, but this is a pretty long lasting wobble, plus it has some upper air support for moving in this direction. The real question is how fast does the ridge build back in.

Which site do you reference to see these ridge forecasts?

[thetruesms]

It's worth mentioning that while Alex is certainly right of track, it's still within the model envelope. It is near the right edge, though. At landfall, that right edge of the model envelope is about 75 miles south of Brownsville.

[KWT]

No doubt this one is still moving NW, the reason it perhaps appears like it isn't on radar to some is because the western eyewall is coming into much better view on radar.

Eyewall trying to close again as well.

[deltadog03]

Hello Brownsville????