ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical

[Macrocane]

00
URNT15 KNHC 070317
AF303 0905A ERNESTO HDOB 36 20120807
030900 1650N 08236W 8441 01508 //// +155 //// 221038 041 041 014 01
030930 1650N 08234W 8422 01530 0049 +160 +160 214039 041 044 016 01
031000 1650N 08232W 8425 01528 0053 +160 +160 213040 040 044 016 01
031030 1650N 08230W 8430 01526 0053 +160 +160 213038 040 040 011 01
031100 1650N 08228W 8432 01526 0055 +160 +160 209040 041 040 011 01
031130 1650N 08227W 8428 01536 0058 +160 +160 202041 043 037 007 05
031200 1650N 08225W 8423 01543 //// +147 //// 195043 045 041 019 01
031230 1650N 08223W 8435 01531 //// +146 //// 195040 043 041 022 01
031300 1650N 08221W 8428 01543 0073 +150 +150 193039 040 037 012 01
031330 1650N 08220W 8430 01541 0071 +160 +160 193038 040 039 008 01
031400 1650N 08218W 8429 01547 0070 +160 +160 189034 037 040 008 01
031430 1650N 08216W 8428 01548 //// +153 //// 185035 036 044 013 01
031500 1650N 08214W 8429 01547 0077 +160 +160 177036 037 045 014 01
031530 1650N 08213W 8426 01551 //// +146 //// 179038 040 045 014 01
031600 1650N 08211W 8430 01547 //// +145 //// 176042 043 041 013 01
031630 1650N 08209W 8434 01544 0085 +150 +150 175044 045 040 012 01
031700 1650N 08208W 8427 01553 0086 +150 +150 176045 046 040 012 01
031730 1650N 08206W 8429 01554 0095 +150 +150 174044 046 040 013 01
031800 1650N 08204W 8429 01556 0094 +150 +150 174042 042 039 016 01
031830 1650N 08203W 8427 01561 0091 +160 +160 170041 042 036 008 01
$$
;

[HurricaneBelle]

WTNT65 KNHC 070320
TCUAT5

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
1115 PM EDT MON AUG 06 2012

...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT CONFIRMS ADVISORY INTENSITY...

AT 1045 PM EDT...AND AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
MEASURED AN ADJUSTED SURFACE WIND OF 63 MPH...97 KM/H...IN THE
NORTHEAST QUADRANT. THIS RECENT WIND DATA SUPPORTS THE 11 PM EDT
ADVISORY INTENSITY OF 65 MPH...100 KM/H.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
1115 PM EDT MON AUG 06 2012

...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT CONFIRMS ADVISORY INTENSITY...

AT 1045 PM EDT...AND AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
MEASURED AN ADJUSTED SURFACE WIND OF 63 MPH...97 KM/H...IN THE
NORTHEAST QUADRANT. THIS RECENT WIND DATA SUPPORTS THE 11 PM EDT
ADVISORY INTENSITY OF 65 MPH...100 KM/H.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[littlevince]

[CrazyC83]

Rare to see a TCU just to confirm an intensity initially seen as generous - I have never seen such. I think it was 60 kt earlier though, then weakened back.

[WxEnthus]

Conditions aren't really perfect, if they were the results would be different. Regardless of what some say, Ernesto is proving that conditions are less than ideal. The storm responds to the environment.

Definitely, otherwise we'd be seeing a very different storm. Although some models predicted a weak storm even experienced forecasters have been scratching their heads over Ernesto. It does bring many more questions to mind than answers, because although there have been some small adversities in the way, nothing in the environment has been so obviously challenging to hurricane formation that it's easy to point the finger with absolute confidence and say, "There, that's the problem 100%."

Other storms have overcome much greater odds, so perhaps lots of small things that add up... or something that just isn't apparent to us at the moment, in which case Ernesto may be an interesting case study for a met student somewhere. Sometimes we can learn as much -- or perhaps more -- from the storms that don't go down in the record books as the ones that do.

[ozonepete]

It's trading-off intensification for fighting unfavorable conditions.

What unfavorable conditions?

Exactly, there are absolutely no unfavorable conditions, it's just that Ernesto won't intensify at all. I really don't know why. I mean just look at the environment it is in! Moist air, very light wind shear, extremely warm SSTs - what is really going on??? Not even the slightest sign of any type of eyewall structure, just a whole bunch of dry air intrusion. What dry air?! The storm is in the most favorable place in the entire basin! Could someone help me please???

Ok, I'll try, since I've been watching these since 1969. Admittedly I didn't know what I was really looking at until satellites and computers came in, but you get a feel for certain things.

It ramped up this morning because all of those ideal conditions were there but then it ran into problems:
1. Dry air. And for a TC it's always mid or level dry air of course. Anyway some dry air got into the circulation but it really didn't seem to be that much. But clearly it did because we saw low level arc clouds blowing out from the thunderstorm clusters. Arc clouds (outflow boundaries) indicate that the thunderstorms have ingested dry air and that causes their updrafts to collapse; the collapsing columns of cooler, denser air result in intense downdrafts that cause a splash down of that cool dry air that spreads out away from the center. The visible evidence is the arc clouds. So there was some dry air intrusion.
2. Symmetry problems. At the same time some dry air caused a weakening of the thunderstorms at the core there looks to me like there was a tug to the north at mid levels by that ULL to the west over the southern GOM. While the low level circulation naturally wanted to continue westward the mid to upper levels started getting pulled a little northward. This caused that beautiful symmetry we saw this morning to get disrupted. I think symmetry is a little under-rated in its importance to TC development and maintainence. Picture the spinning ice-skater. If she extended one arm out slightly while doing a spin, would she stay upright? So symmetry problems caused it to tilt and lose the ability to maintain strong updrafts at the developing eyewall.

It's my belief that an interaction between these two aspects is so complex that we don't yet understand it and that sometimes one can be bad but the other compensates for it, but sometimes the combination of the two, even if both are weak, is too much. In this case the dry air wasn't that major but it was enough to weaken some of the thunderstorms at the core, and while that was occurring the loss of symmetry from different winds at the low and mid-levels further disrupted the ability of the thunderstorms to maintain vertical updrafts. So a little bit of two poisons was as effective as one big dose.

Having said that, it loks like the circulation is becoming more symmetrical again and the dry air has mostly been worked out. I would expect to see Ernesto blow up again late tonight or early tomorrow morning as both of those factors wane.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

cycloneye adds Storm2k Disclaimer

[littlevince]

000
URNT15 KNHC 070327
AF303 0905A ERNESTO HDOB 37 20120807
031900 1650N 08201W 8422 01568 0088 +160 +160 169039 041 036 010 01
031930 1650N 08200W 8430 01560 0091 +160 +160 171038 039 036 008 01
032000 1650N 08158W 8433 01557 0090 +160 +160 172038 039 034 007 01
032030 1650N 08156W 8425 01565 0089 +160 +160 176037 038 037 009 05
032100 1650N 08155W 8430 01558 //// +141 //// 166037 039 044 020 01
032130 1650N 08153W 8433 01554 //// +142 //// 156043 044 046 020 01
032200 1650N 08152W 8430 01556 //// +139 //// 157043 044 045 020 01
032230 1650N 08150W 8433 01556 //// +140 //// 158042 044 043 017 01
032300 1650N 08149W 8426 01564 //// +143 //// 160040 042 044 015 01
032330 1650N 08147W 8432 01558 //// +148 //// 153036 043 047 023 01
032400 1650N 08145W 8424 01566 //// +147 //// 157042 045 045 025 01
032430 1650N 08144W 8435 01556 0095 +160 +160 159040 041 044 007 01
032500 1650N 08142W 8430 01563 0092 +160 +160 160038 039 044 005 01
032530 1650N 08141W 8430 01564 0090 +170 +168 159037 038 045 004 00
032600 1650N 08139W 8429 01568 0092 +170 +169 158037 037 044 005 00
032630 1650N 08138W 8429 01568 0093 +168 +168 158036 037 043 001 00
032700 1650N 08136W 8428 01571 0096 +160 +160 159037 037 043 004 01
032730 1650N 08134W 8432 01566 0096 +160 +160 159036 037 042 004 01
032800 1650N 08133W 8429 01570 0096 +170 +170 157032 035 042 004 01
032830 1650N 08131W 8435 01563 0097 +170 +170 151030 031 041 005 01
$$
;

[Macrocane]

Sorry for the delay, next one will be on time

[Macrocane]

000
URNT15 KNHC 070337
AF303 0905A ERNESTO HDOB 38 20120807
032900 1650N 08130W 8422 01578 0101 +170 +170 151033 034 041 006 01
032930 1650N 08128W 8432 01569 0104 +160 +160 151037 039 043 005 01
033000 1650N 08127W 8432 01568 //// +151 //// 154039 041 042 007 01
033030 1650N 08125W 8426 01573 //// +153 //// 156041 041 041 006 01
033100 1650N 08124W 8428 01573 0103 +160 +160 158042 043 042 005 01
033130 1649N 08122W 8433 01569 0104 +160 +160 154048 048 043 005 01
033200 1649N 08121W 8433 01569 0105 +160 +160 153047 049 042 005 01
033230 1649N 08119W 8431 01573 0107 +160 +160 150045 048 040 005 01
033300 1649N 08118W 8428 01578 0106 +164 +160 150044 045 038 006 00
033330 1649N 08116W 8430 01575 0104 +165 +161 151045 047 037 006 00
033400 1649N 08115W 8428 01579 0105 +166 +165 149046 047 037 005 00
033430 1649N 08113W 8430 01577 0107 +165 +162 144047 049 037 006 00
033500 1649N 08112W 8434 01573 0105 +171 +149 140050 051 037 007 00
033530 1649N 08110W 8435 01572 0108 +167 +151 138051 053 037 007 00
033600 1649N 08109W 8429 01580 0105 +174 +143 145053 054 037 007 00
033630 1649N 08108W 8426 01581 0107 +170 +146 146056 057 036 009 00
033700 1649N 08106W 8434 01573 0110 +166 +147 143053 056 038 013 00
033730 1649N 08105W 8432 01579 0114 +161 +146 141053 054 038 013 00
033800 1649N 08103W 8429 01580 0114 +159 +151 138053 054 037 011 00
033830 1649N 08102W 8430 01581 0113 +162 +155 136051 052 037 011 00
$$

[ozonepete]

Thanks for the disclaimer, Luis. Sorry I forgot it.

[Sanibel]

It looks like a June TS now.

[Macrocane]

000
URNT15 KNHC 070348
AF303 0905A ERNESTO HDOB 39 20120807
033900 1649N 08101W 8434 01578 0112 +168 +143 141054 055 035 008 00
033930 1649N 08059W 8427 01585 0111 +169 +154 138051 055 034 008 00
034000 1649N 08058W 8437 01577 0115 +165 +159 139050 053 035 010 00
034030 1649N 08057W 8424 01591 0121 +158 +134 137051 054 036 011 00
034100 1649N 08055W 8425 01589 0117 +167 +127 140056 056 036 011 00
034130 1649N 08054W 8431 01583 0112 +170 +137 145048 056 038 012 00
034200 1649N 08052W 8474 01540 0120 +159 +135 147052 055 036 019 00
034230 1649N 08051W 8418 01597 0119 +166 +136 148048 051 037 007 00
034300 1649N 08049W 8431 01584 0121 +165 +134 151047 048 036 008 00
034330 1649N 08048W 8430 01586 0120 +165 +126 149046 048 036 008 00
034400 1649N 08046W 8429 01587 0120 +168 +126 151046 046 037 008 00
034430 1649N 08045W 8432 01586 0120 +172 +123 151047 048 037 008 03
034500 1650N 08044W 8422 01601 0121 +177 +119 146047 048 /// /// 03
034530 1652N 08044W 8432 01587 0119 +175 +116 143046 046 038 010 03
034600 1654N 08045W 8428 01589 0119 +171 +110 141047 047 038 010 00
034630 1655N 08046W 8428 01589 0119 +172 +110 142048 048 038 009 00
034700 1657N 08047W 8431 01586 0122 +167 +118 143048 049 038 007 00
034730 1659N 08048W 8430 01586 0123 +165 +119 143049 049 037 007 00
034800 1701N 08049W 8430 01586 0122 +165 +133 144050 051 038 008 00
034830 1703N 08050W 8429 01589 0120 +167 +131 146051 052 039 008 00
$$

[littlevince]

ok, my fail, these C130 must have a huge fuel tank

[ozonepete]

It looks like a June TS now.

That's one whale of a TS though. Circulation is really large.

[Macrocane]

So, it's not bedtime for us yet

00
URNT15 KNHC 070357
AF303 0905A ERNESTO HDOB 40 20120807
034900 1705N 08051W 8429 01586 0120 +167 +127 144051 051 039 008 00
034930 1707N 08052W 8430 01587 0119 +170 +110 141050 051 039 008 00
035000 1708N 08053W 8428 01588 0120 +167 +111 140049 050 039 008 00
035030 1710N 08054W 8429 01590 0120 +166 +112 141052 052 038 007 00
035100 1712N 08055W 8432 01582 0119 +169 +106 141054 054 039 007 00
035130 1714N 08055W 8427 01587 0119 +168 +105 141054 055 038 008 00
035200 1716N 08056W 8431 01582 0119 +170 +101 140053 054 037 007 00
035230 1718N 08057W 8429 01584 0116 +172 +091 139056 057 037 006 00
035300 1720N 08058W 8428 01586 0117 +172 +094 139055 057 038 004 00
035330 1722N 08059W 8430 01583 0117 +173 +101 139054 054 038 004 00
035400 1723N 08100W 8429 01587 0117 +174 +102 138051 053 038 004 00
035430 1725N 08101W 8425 01589 0116 +175 +100 139052 053 039 004 00
035500 1727N 08102W 8429 01585 0115 +175 +105 139053 053 038 004 00
035530 1729N 08103W 8430 01586 0115 +175 +110 140053 053 039 004 00
035600 1731N 08104W 8429 01586 0113 +175 +125 138053 053 039 004 00
035630 1733N 08105W 8428 01585 0111 +175 +125 139053 054 037 004 00
035700 1735N 08106W 8436 01578 0111 +179 +116 137055 055 037 003 00
035730 1737N 08106W 8424 01589 0111 +176 +121 138055 055 036 003 00
035800 1739N 08107W 8434 01580 0111 +177 +115 138054 055 036 003 00
035830 1740N 08108W 8429 01582 0110 +177 +112 138054 055 036 004 00
$$
;

[littlevince]

:uarrow: So, it's not bedtime for us yet

no parece
Maybe they get bored, and decided to approach that large convective cell at east

[Wx_Warrior]

Endured plenty of dry air, that's for sure. #bravoModels

[Macrocane]

00
URNT15 KNHC 070408
AF303 0905A ERNESTO HDOB 41 20120807
035900 1742N 08109W 8429 01584 0110 +180 +111 138054 054 037 003 00
035930 1744N 08110W 8428 01585 0110 +175 +124 139053 054 037 004 00
040000 1746N 08111W 8432 01583 0111 +175 +120 139052 053 036 004 00
040030 1748N 08112W 8426 01589 0111 +175 +121 138052 052 034 004 00
040100 1750N 08113W 8437 01576 0112 +173 +130 137051 052 035 003 00
040130 1752N 08114W 8428 01584 0113 +171 +133 136051 051 036 003 00
040200 1754N 08115W 8432 01581 0112 +177 +121 135052 052 038 003 00
040230 1755N 08116W 8430 01583 0110 +177 +120 134052 052 039 002 00
040300 1757N 08117W 8430 01587 0112 +175 +149 133051 053 037 003 00
040330 1759N 08117W 8428 01589 0112 +171 +151 132051 052 035 004 00
040400 1801N 08118W 8429 01586 0112 +171 +153 133052 053 037 004 00
040430 1803N 08119W 8430 01583 0113 +174 +148 132050 050 038 003 00
040500 1805N 08120W 8430 01586 0115 +170 +146 130049 051 036 004 00
040530 1806N 08121W 8429 01585 0116 +169 +150 128051 051 036 004 00
040600 1808N 08122W 8429 01586 0116 +170 +146 128050 051 037 003 00
040630 1810N 08123W 8429 01586 0116 +170 +139 129050 050 036 004 00
040700 1812N 08124W 8432 01586 0116 +170 +142 130049 050 036 004 00
040730 1814N 08125W 8429 01588 0118 +165 +148 131050 050 035 002 00
040800 1816N 08126W 8428 01589 0118 +167 +152 129048 050 034 003 00
040830 1817N 08126W 8429 01589 0119 +166 +160 128047 048 034 004 00
$$
;

[littlevince]