ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[GCANE]

The eye is clearing once again..
Might ramp up in intensity again.
I think Matthew would regain cat 5 status today.

Looks like it is trying to get the stadium effect.

[ronyan]

Why does the page graphic show Matthew as a Cat 3 when it's a Cat 4?

They need to update the range for S2K's map to reflect 130 as a cat 4, 131 used to be the minimum.

[JaxGator]

This was posted in the model thread and um....I pray that it will NOT happen.

Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice · 32m32 minutes ago  Andover, MA

Not good. This AM's ECMWF High probability cluster with a BIG statement. All members now track #Matthew into Florida at a Cat 4 intensity.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ct2RRNVWIAA42R7.jpg

[Ntxw]

As picturesque of a storm he is, praying for all in it's path.



His eye is warming meaning he should at the least maintain strength. If that warming continues then it should clear out soon

[Vdogg]

Today was when he models were forecasting rapid to explosive intensification. Unfortunately, instead of starting from cat 2, this process is starting from cat 4

Every wobble counts for Hati at this point. If this rolls over them as forecasted they could be thrown into the stone age. Praying at this point is an understatement.

Does not matter if they get a irect hit or not. Chances are, hurricane winds may miss them entirely

The rains, however, will not

I don't understand this statement. If they take a direct hit, that's category 4 force winds, as opposed to strong tropical storm force winds if it's a miss.

[JtSmarts]

Brad Panovich meteorologist at WCNC Charlotte, posted this on facebook and twitter.

I noticed this morning the models are underestimating the strength of the Atlantic ridge of high pressure. It was actually stronger with the morning weather balloon launch from Bermuda. Both the GFS and ECMWF had the ridge at 588dm the sounding from Bermuda shows it at 590dm. The result is the ridge is stronger than the models thought which could mean a shift west in #Matthew s track. Stay alert! #ncwx #scwx

 https://twitter.com/wxbrad/status/782945817116016640

[bg1]

Why does the page graphic show Matthew as a Cat 3 when it's a Cat 4?

I think when the Hurricane Scale was updated a few years back, the one the map uses wasn't. Before, The upper end of Cat 3 was 130 mph, and 115 kts (low Cat 4, Matt's current intensity) converted to 135 mph. now, the upper end of Cat 3 is 129 mph, and 115 kts (Cat 4) converts to 130 mph. I think the map still uses the old scale and goes by miles per hour first instead of knots first.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Why does the page graphic show Matthew as a Cat 3 when it's a Cat 4?

I think when the Hurricane Scale was updated a few years back, the one the map uses wasn't. Before, The upper end of Cat 3 was 130 mph, and 115 kts (low Cat 4, Matt's current intensity) converted to 135 mph. now, the upper end of Cat 3 is 129 mph, and 115 kts (Cat 4) converts to 130 mph. I think the map still uses the old scale and goes by miles per hour first instead of knots first.

It's weird but 115 knots converts both to 130mph and 135mph per the NHC.

[Alyono]

Every wobble counts for Hati at this point. If this rolls over them as forecasted they could be thrown into the stone age. Praying at this point is an understatement.

Does not matter if they get a irect hit or not. Chances are, hurricane winds may miss them entirely

The rains, however, will not

I don't understand this statement. If they take a direct hit, that's category 4 force winds, as opposed to strong tropical storm force winds if it's a miss.

Because its the rain that will kill. The rain is going to be the same regardless

[Alyono]

last pass through the center indicates that this is not intensifying further. Eye has also become clouded over again. Probably maintaining its intensity

[ronyan]

Why does the page graphic show Matthew as a Cat 3 when it's a Cat 4?

I think when the Hurricane Scale was updated a few years back, the one the map uses wasn't. Before, The upper end of Cat 3 was 130 mph, and 115 kts (low Cat 4, Matt's current intensity) converted to 135 mph. now, the upper end of Cat 3 is 129 mph, and 115 kts (Cat 4) converts to 130 mph. I think the map still uses the old scale and goes by miles per hour first instead of knots first.

It's weird but 115 knots converts both to 130mph and 135mph per the NHC.

Should be 130 as the actual value from the conversion is 132.34. Unless you are using a ceiling function.

[bg1]

Why does the page graphic show Matthew as a Cat 3 when it's a Cat 4?

I think when the Hurricane Scale was updated a few years back, the one the map uses wasn't. Before, The upper end of Cat 3 was 130 mph, and 115 kts (low Cat 4, Matt's current intensity) converted to 135 mph. now, the upper end of Cat 3 is 129 mph, and 115 kts (Cat 4) converts to 130 mph. I think the map still uses the old scale and goes by miles per hour first instead of knots first.

It's weird but 115 knots converts both to 130mph and 135mph per the NHC.

Yeah, the CPHC still uses the old scale I think.
115 knots is actually 132.34 mph, closer to 130 than 135; that's why there was a slight adjustment to the lower boundary. Same thing with the upper boundary not rounding off properly when converting to km/h.

[AutoPenalti]

Brad Panovich meteorologist at WCNC Charlotte, posted this on facebook and twitter.

I noticed this morning the models are underestimating the strength of the Atlantic ridge of high pressure. It was actually stronger with the morning weather balloon launch from Bermuda. Both the GFS and ECMWF had the ridge at 588dm the sounding from Bermuda shows it at 590dm. The result is the ridge is stronger than the models thought which could mean a shift west in #Matthew s track. Stay alert! #ncwx #scwx

 https://twitter.com/wxbrad/status/782945817116016640

So by that logic, we should be expecting more west shifts?

[GCANE]

A new Cu-Nim just popped on the northern eyewall.
Not a sign of weakening.

[Ntxw]

Does not matter if they get a irect hit or not. Chances are, hurricane winds may miss them entirely

The rains, however, will not

I don't understand this statement. If they take a direct hit, that's category 4 force winds, as opposed to strong tropical storm force winds if it's a miss.

Because its the rain that will kill. The rain is going to be the same regardless

Agreed, for Haiti the bigger concern is always rainfall due to it's topography of mountains. Landslides and mudslides here often kill in greater than actual winds for a smaller area.

[La Sirena]

This was posted in the model thread and um....I pray that it will NOT happen.

Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice · 32m32 minutes ago  Andover, MA

Not good. This AM's ECMWF High probability cluster with a BIG statement. All members now track #Matthew into Florida at a Cat 4 intensity.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ct2RRNVWIAA42R7.jpg

I saw that on Twitter and almost dropped my coffee.

Frankly, we are getting closer to knowing a more sure outcome. The rollercoaster ride has been intense. I'm slightly scared to see the models after it comes by Cuba.

Edit: Apparently, I need more coffee.

[sponger]

Quite interested to see the 11 update! Track will move but by how much? May just wait for the GFS run since there is plenty of time. I will guess 50 miles west in deference to the Euro.

[SouthDadeFish]

Brad Panovich meteorologist at WCNC Charlotte, posted this on facebook and twitter.

I noticed this morning the models are underestimating the strength of the Atlantic ridge of high pressure. It was actually stronger with the morning weather balloon launch from Bermuda. Both the GFS and ECMWF had the ridge at 588dm the sounding from Bermuda shows it at 590dm. The result is the ridge is stronger than the models thought which could mean a shift west in #Matthew s track. Stay alert! #ncwx #scwx

 https://twitter.com/wxbrad/status/782945817116016640

One cannot definitively come to this conclusion without looking at the raw model output. The next contour on that map is 591 dm, so theoretically the models still could have been forecasting a 500 hPa height of 590 dm. Someone pointed this out to him on Twitter as well.

[northjaxpro]

Brad Panovich meteorologist at WCNC Charlotte, posted this on facebook and twitter.


So by that logic, we should be expecting more west shifts?

Well, yes I would expect to see west shifts continue, especially in the 96 -120 hr period when I am anticipating the closest approach of Matthew toward the Florida East Coast.

[1900hurricane]

The F-18 pass from a little over two hours ago shows a large outer eyewall developing. Considering the eyewall size and the early state of eyewall replacement currently, I doubt eyewall replacement completes before landfall.