ATL: ELSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[aspen]

Wow, Elsa finally looks like a semi-healthy storm! A pretty decent performance today, but it’s anything but good for Florida.

[tolakram]

Given what I have seen on the models, I think Tropical Storm Elsa has a realistic shot at becoming a major hurricane. The operational Euro has a 999 mb hurricane at landfall. Models seem to show Tropical Storm Elsa moving west of what the NHC forecasts. Should this play out, Tropical Storm Elsa would be less affected by land for a longer amount of time, giving it the chance to intensify into a powerful hurricane. It could become a major hurricane. Additionally, if this plays out, South Florida might dodge another bullet.

I disagree. I don't see anything that makes Elsa more than a low end Hurricane. Even the usually overzealous HWRF doesn't get Elsa below 1000mb.

[eastcoastFL]

Here is the tornado watch area incase anyone was wondering

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Given what I have seen on the models, I think Tropical Storm Elsa has a realistic shot at becoming a major hurricane. The operational Euro has a 999 mb hurricane at landfall. Models seem to show Tropical Storm Elsa moving west of what the NHC forecasts. Should this play out, Tropical Storm Elsa would be less affected by land for a longer amount of time, giving it the chance to intensify into a powerful hurricane. It could become a major hurricane. Additionally, if this plays out, South Florida might dodge another bullet.

Elsa has no chance of becoming a major hurricane. Absolute worst case is 75 knots.

[eastcoastFL]

Given what I have seen on the models, I think Tropical Storm Elsa has a realistic shot at becoming a major hurricane. The operational Euro has a 999 mb hurricane at landfall. Models seem to show Tropical Storm Elsa moving west of what the NHC forecasts. Should this play out, Tropical Storm Elsa would be less affected by land for a longer amount of time, giving it the chance to intensify into a powerful hurricane. It could become a major hurricane. Additionally, if this plays out, South Florida might dodge another bullet.

I disagree. I don't see anything that makes Elsa more than a low end Hurricane. Even the usually overzealous HWRF doesn't get Elsa below 1000mb.

I agree, no evidence to support much more than a mid level cat 1. I just hope I don’t regret saying that.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Given what I have seen on the models, I think Tropical Storm Elsa has a realistic shot at becoming a major hurricane. The operational Euro has a 999 mb hurricane at landfall. Models seem to show Tropical Storm Elsa moving west of what the NHC forecasts. Should this play out, Tropical Storm Elsa would be less affected by land for a longer amount of time, giving it the chance to intensify into a powerful hurricane. It could become a major hurricane. Additionally, if this plays out, South Florida might dodge another bullet.

No. If this becomes a cat 2, let alone a major I will listen to horrible opera music for a whole night.

[Hammy]

This is starting to wrap near (but a bit north of) where Eta briefly reached hurricane intensity last year.

[Vdogg]

I'm a little surprised a borderline hurricane about to bring significant impacts to Tampa has only had one recon in the past six hours or so, and said recon only had two center passes before leaving.

Probably because borderline hurricane was supposed to be borderline depression by now. Storm has been completely unpredictable.

[chaser1]

<.0000000000001

The odds are low (but not quite THAT low). Elsa has a very small core. Such storms are subject to to rapid fluctuations. It's a good question but the problem is what do YOU define as rapid intensification? An unexpected 30% increase in intensity from 70mph to 90 mph within 6 hours WOULD BE a rapid increase in strength. For instance, a small core system
could prematurely turn NNE temporarily negating effects of upper level shear and better allowing the LLC to become better vertically aligned and hasten quicker pressure falls. Of course, that window of opportunity would be limited to time over water. There is obviously very little difference between a strong TS and a 75 mph hurricane but stronger yet could suggest greater organization, broader area of impact, and an increased danger to those in weak structures or exposed to flying debris. Does this risk possibly exist with Elsa? Yes, but a number of factors would have to perfectly align. I don't see those odds being any higher then about 10% max.

Seeing a 30knot increase within a span of 24 hours. Also chance of Hurricane Elsa RI is <.0000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000001

Dude, work on your math skillz
70 mph X 30% (21 mph) increase wind speed = approx 91 mph
90 mph
- 70 mph
----------------
= 20 mph (= 17 knots)

17 knot increase (NOT a 30 knot increase) in wind speed is quite unlikely but not unreasonable for a very small core system under proper conditions.

[aspen]

Given what I have seen on the models, I think Tropical Storm Elsa has a realistic shot at becoming a major hurricane. The operational Euro has a 999 mb hurricane at landfall. Models seem to show Tropical Storm Elsa moving west of what the NHC forecasts. Should this play out, Tropical Storm Elsa would be less affected by land for a longer amount of time, giving it the chance to intensify into a powerful hurricane. It could become a major hurricane. Additionally, if this plays out, South Florida might dodge another bullet.

No. If this becomes a cat 2, let alone a major I will listen to horrible opera music for a whole night.

If Elsa is able to wrap some convection in its southern quadrant, maybe 80 kt is the upper limit before it makes landfall.

[DestinHurricane]

I am in agreement with wxman57 that this is unlikely to become a hurricane again. I think it may have been one earlier briefly just before recon got there but its not anymore. No longer vertically stacked as well. Shear is just too much to intensify anymore.

[NDG]

https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1412507565058035713

Evidence that some of those strong winds at the recon's flight level are making it to the ground in the convection from the downdrafts.

[ElectricStorm]

I am in agreement with wxman57 that this is unlikely to become a hurricane again. I think it may have been one earlier briefly just before recon got there but its not anymore. No longer vertically stacked as well. Shear is just too much to intensify anymore.

Looks like the complete opposite to me. Looks much better than the past few days and it'll likely be upgraded pretty soon.

[AlphaToOmega]

Tropical Storm Elsa has not been upgraded as of Advisory 27. It still remains at 60 knots, but it has strengthened to 998 millibars.

[rigbyrigz]

I'm a little surprised a borderline hurricane about to bring significant impacts to Tampa has only had one recon in the past six hours or so, and said recon only had two center passes before leaving.

Probably because borderline hurricane was supposed to be borderline depression by now. Storm has been completely unpredictable.

"Unpredictable" unless you talk to the Big Bend locals here. Was just in line for the last loaf of bread at the Perry Walmart and they all sayin: "We knew this thing would blow up when it got in the Gulf".

So I say: "Why didn't you come get your bread yesterday then??"

[cheezyWXguy]

I don’t see this getting above 75kt, and will probably level off between 60 and 70kt. Core looks a little less organized on radar than it did an hour ago, which suggests shear is holding this in a maintenance phase. It may resume strengthening at some point, but I can’t imagine it will be more than 5-10kt

[InfernoFlameCat]

The odds are low (but not quite THAT low). Elsa has a very small core. Such storms are subject to to rapid fluctuations. It's a good question but the problem is what do YOU define as rapid intensification? An unexpected 30% increase in intensity from 70mph to 90 mph within 6 hours WOULD BE a rapid increase in strength. For instance, a small core system
could prematurely turn NNE temporarily negating effects of upper level shear and better allowing the LLC to become better vertically aligned and hasten quicker pressure falls. Of course, that window of opportunity would be limited to time over water. There is obviously very little difference between a strong TS and a 75 mph hurricane but stronger yet could suggest greater organization, broader area of impact, and an increased danger to those in weak structures or exposed to flying debris. Does this risk possibly exist with Elsa? Yes, but a number of factors would have to perfectly align. I don't see those odds being any higher then about 10% max.

Seeing a 30knot increase within a span of 24 hours. Also chance of Hurricane Elsa RI is <.0000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000001

Dude, work on your math skillz
70 mph X 30% (21 mph) increase wind speed = approx 91 mph
90 mph
- 70 mph
----------------
= 20 mph (= 17 knots)

17 knot increase (NOT a 30 knot increase) in wind speed is quite unlikely but not unreasonable for a very small core system under proper conditions.

I though the standard thing for RI is 30knot increase. No conversion.

[tolakram]

...ELSA EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL OVER THE NORTHERN FLORIDA GULF COAST...

Tropical Storm Elsa Discussion Number 27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
500 PM EDT Tue Jul 06 2021

The Hurricane Hunters completed their mission into Elsa a little
while ago, and observations from the aircraft indicate that the
storm's maximum winds are near 60 kt. Elsa is a sheared tropical
cyclone, with the low level center situated on the southwest edge
of the main area of deep convection. Much of the western half of
the circulation continues to lack significant shower or
thunderstorm activity. Moderate westerly vertical shear, along
with relatively dry mid-level air, should continue to affect the
cyclone until landfall within the next day or so. However
this environment should not be hostile enough to prevent some
slight strengthening, and Elsa is predicted to become a
hurricane overnight.

Elsa is moving northward, or 350/9 kt. A continued northward
track is likely for the next 24 hours or so as the tropical
cyclone moves between the western periphery of an Atlantic
subtropical ridge and a broad low pressure area over the
northwestern Gulf of Mexico. A turn toward the north-northeast
along the northwestern side of the ridge is expected by late
tomorrow, followed by an acceleration toward the northeast
over the next couple of days ahead of a trough over the eastern
United States and eastern Canada. The official track forecast is
similar to the previous ones and near or slightly to the right of
the model consensus tracks.


Key Messages:

1. Heavy rain will impact Cuba tonight resulting in significant
flooding and mudslides. As Elsa moves across the western and
northern Florida Peninsula through Wednesday, heavy rainfall may
result in considerable flash, urban, and minor to isolated moderate
river flooding. Mid- to late-week, heavy rainfall across southeast
Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, and southeastern Virginia
may result in isolated flash and urban flooding, with considerable
flash and urban flooding possible across coastal Georgia and the
Lowcountry of South Carolina.

2. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge along portions
of the west coast of Florida tonight and Wednesday, and a Storm
Surge Warning is in effect for that area.

3. Hurricane conditions are expected tonight and early Wednesday
along a portion of the west coast of Florida, where a Hurricane
Warning is in effect. Tropical storm conditions are occurring
across portions of the Florida Keys and will spread northward along
the west coast of the state within the warning area through
Wednesday morning.

4. Although the center of Elsa is expected to remain inland of the
coastline from Georgia through the Carolinas during the next couple
of days, tropical storm conditions are expected in a portion of
southeastern Georgia and are possible elsewhere along much of the
coasts of Georgia and South Carolina.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/2100Z 25.8N 83.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 07/0600Z 27.5N 83.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 07/1800Z 30.0N 82.8W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
36H 08/0600Z 32.3N 81.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
48H 08/1800Z 34.8N 78.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
60H 09/0600Z 37.4N 75.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 09/1800Z 40.5N 71.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 10/1800Z 48.5N 58.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[HurricaneBelle]

NHC keeps it at a 70 MPH tropical storm on the 5PM advisory but still calls for it to be a hurricane before landfall. Of course the difference between 70 and 75 MPH is relatively negligible.

The wind probabilities have Tampa now at 61% chance for high-end (greater than 50 knot) TS-force winds and a 12% shot at hurricane winds. Of course the highest sustained winds we'll see here in Pinellas will be after the center passes our latitude and winds swing around from the SW where they're coming directly off the water as opposed to prior with the frictional effects of land. I remember Frances 2004 packed its real wallop here after it moved to our NW into the Gulf and we got the onshore winds.

[tolakram]

saved loop