Texas Winter 2025-2026

[Stonewood Ranch]

I get it warm nose is a warm nose but man, I just don't recall seeing 10-18F and a warm nose preventing snow. That's just insane.

Question for you experts…Is there any sign of the warm nose getting weaker & weaker after each recent model run? Could it be just a sleet and snow event for DFW with no freezing rain?

[TomballEd]

I get it warm nose is a warm nose but man, I just don't recall seeing 10-18F and a warm nose preventing snow. That's just insane.

Question for you experts…Is there any sign of the warm nose getting weaker & weaker after each recent model run? Could it be just a sleet and snow event for DFW with no freezing rain?

15*F and freezing drizzle in Houston in the 2021 winter storm. Looked a little like snow in the street lights, but it was just micro pieces of ice light enough to float a bit. I've seen snow flurries in NY, I know the difference.

[Quixotic]

I get it warm nose is a warm nose but man, I just don't recall seeing 10-18F and a warm nose preventing snow. That's just insane.

It’s possible. Not likely but possible. Like you said before conditions for snow have to be nearly perfect to get the confluence of moisture and cold at all levels. We are barely above sea level. We need southerly or sw flow for moisture and cold from top to bottom. Mid levels is hard to get moisture and not have some above freezing temps. The answer to me has always been a phase or semi phase where the northern jet interacts with the subtropical one.

[Quixotic]

I get it warm nose is a warm nose but man, I just don't recall seeing 10-18F and a warm nose preventing snow. That's just insane.

Question for you experts…Is there any sign of the warm nose getting weaker & weaker after each recent model run? Could it be just a sleet and snow event for DFW with no freezing rain?

15*F and freezing drizzle in Houston in the 2021 winter storm. Looked a little like snow in the street lights, but it was just micro pieces of ice light enough to float a bit. I've seen snow flurries in NY, I know the difference.

Doesn’t count. Freezing drizzle is surface based and cold wringing out moisture.

[TropicalTundra]

I get it warm nose is a warm nose but man, I just don't recall seeing 10-18F and a warm nose preventing snow. That's just insane.

Question for you experts…Is there any sign of the warm nose getting weaker & weaker after each recent model run? Could it be just a sleet and snow event for DFW with no freezing rain?

15*F and freezing drizzle in Houston in the 2021 winter storm. Looked a little like snow in the street lights, but it was just micro pieces of ice light enough to float a bit. I've seen snow flurries in NY, I know the difference.

There was a mix here of freezing rain and sleet at 9 degrees that same storm. Wind chill was brutal and all the sleet that fell practically created an ice layer on top of the 3 day old snow, found that out the hard way lol.

[Ntxw]

I get it warm nose is a warm nose but man, I just don't recall seeing 10-18F and a warm nose preventing snow. That's just insane.

It’s possible. Not likely but possible. Like you said before conditions for snow have to be nearly perfect to get the confluence of moisture and cold at all levels. We are barely above sea level. We need southerly or sw flow for moisture and cold from top to bottom. Mid levels is hard to get moisture and not have some above freezing temps. The answer to me has always been a phase or semi phase where the northern jet interacts with the subtropical one.

Yeah but to get that low typically means you are deeper in the cold air mass there is some correlation. Maybe it will be a learning curve experience.

[Quixotic]

I get it warm nose is a warm nose but man, I just don't recall seeing 10-18F and a warm nose preventing snow. That's just insane.

Question for you experts…Is there any sign of the warm nose getting weaker & weaker after each recent model run? Could it be just a sleet and snow event for DFW with no freezing rain?

I’m not good at interpreting skew-ts so I can’t help you there. As I said previously we need help with a deeper cold mass without drying things out (unlikely) or help from some type of phase/quasi-phase with the northern stream (more likely).

Take my advice and listen to people who not only get paid for it but their entire professional reputation is at stake when they forecast: NWS. People can say “yeah they busted” but did they really? With every event you can pick a point and say “bust” but I bet you for the watch area as a whole, they did not.

[downsouthman1]

I get it warm nose is a warm nose but man, I just don't recall seeing 10-18F and a warm nose preventing snow. That's just insane.

It’s possible. Not likely but possible. Like you said before conditions for snow have to be nearly perfect to get the confluence of moisture and cold at all levels. We are barely above sea level. We need southerly or sw flow for moisture and cold from top to bottom. Mid levels is hard to get moisture and not have some above freezing temps. The answer to me has always been a phase or semi phase where the northern jet interacts with the subtropical one.

Yeah but to get that low typically means you are deeper in the cold air mass there is some correlation. Maybe it will be a learning curve experience.

I have not seen an event play out with this level of QPF with the Temps forecast and not wind up with snow. Not with a ULL passing by. So if that happens, wow but a bad wow.

[orangeblood]

GFS deeper cold/further south with ejection. Clear trend developing today and this evening

[wxman22]

ICON

[txtwister78]

0z short range RGEM

[Quixotic]

I get it warm nose is a warm nose but man, I just don't recall seeing 10-18F and a warm nose preventing snow. That's just insane.

It’s possible. Not likely but possible. Like you said before conditions for snow have to be nearly perfect to get the confluence of moisture and cold at all levels. We are barely above sea level. We need southerly or sw flow for moisture and cold from top to bottom. Mid levels is hard to get moisture and not have some above freezing temps. The answer to me has always been a phase or semi phase where the northern jet interacts with the subtropical one.

Yeah but to get that low typically means you are deeper in the cold air mass there is some correlation. Maybe it will be a learning curve experience.

Yeah. You’re absolutely right. Another dumb anecdote from me but I remember my car breaking down and it was 16. Thinking this was 1996. I remember the temp because I was on a payphone near a bank and it would flash the temp and time. Getting clobbered with sleet. To me a nose is something like 10 degrees warmer which gives us about 26 in the mid levels. Then again, in February 86, it was 50 degrees and snowing. (¯\_(ツ)_/)

[wxman22]

0z GFS

[Iceresistance]

0z GFS

https://i.ibb.co/JFksZ4xv/gfs-mslp-pcpn-frzn-scus-fh18-72.gif

Fort Smith, AR gets like, 2 feet from this

[Quixotic]

I want all of Tulsa’s 16 inches.

[DukeMu]

0z GFS

https://i.ibb.co/JFksZ4xv/gfs-mslp-pcpn-frzn-scus-fh18-72.gif

That backside is a beast!

[jasons2k]

Down to 29 in Dalhart. You can see where the frontal-genesis is taking place as the lobe of thin, cold air slices down the caprock like a knife. It’s 29 in Spearman with a stiff NNE wind, but still 37 in Pampa with winds from the SE.

[Quixotic]

The freezing line is now in the NW Texas panhandle.

I have to disagree as to were the surface front is actually located. The front is just south or a line from Topeka KS to Lincoln KS. The dew points will drop to single digits in the cold dry air, plus the winds are pretty gusty with the front as it moves through.

Lincoln KS 30F

Humidity 40%
Wind Speed NE 23 G 28 mph
Barometer 30.27 in
Dewpoint 9°F (-13°C)
Visibility 10.00 mi
Wind Chill 17°F (-8°C)
Last update 22 Jan 8:35 pm CST

Topeka KS 30F

Humidity 41%
Wind Speed N 14 mph
Barometer 30.31 in (1027.6 mb)
Dewpoint 9°F (-13°C)
Visibility 10.00 mi
Wind Chill 19°F (-7°C)
Last update 22 Jan 7:53 pm CST

Tulsa OK 47F

Humidity 36%
Wind Speed SE 3 mph
Barometer 30.16 in (1021.5 mb)
Dewpoint 21°F (-6°C)
Visibility 10.00 mi
Last update 22 Jan 7:53 pm CST

Gage OK 39F

Humidity 82%
Wind Speed S 7 mph
Barometer 30.08 in (1019.7 mb)
Dewpoint 34°F (1°C)
Visibility 10.00 mi
Wind Chill 34°F (1°C)
Last update 22 Jan 7:53 pm CST

Dalhart TX 37F Topography

Humidity 46%
Wind Speed NE 12 mph
Barometer 30.06 in (1018.3 mb)
Dewpoint 18°F (-8°C)
Visibility 10.00 mi
Wind Chill 29°F (-2°C)
Last update 22 Jan 7:53 pm CST

Thank you for reminding us how crucial dewpoints are in winter weather. Seriously.

[DukeMu]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/fv3-hires/2026012300/fv3-hires_asnow_scus_61.png

[Iceresistance]

Okay wow, that escalated very quickly


https://s12.gifyu.com/images/bk3LW.gif