ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - DISCUSSION

[TexWx]

My cousins live in South Padre.
They just got power back after a pretty nasty squall line.

They have closed the causeway there, so they can't leave now if they had to.

[cwachal]

the inner eyewall is trying to strengthen again....

[txagwxman]

A little jog to the NW I see...BRO may get 60-75 mph wind gusts if this continues. However, it should turn more west soon...we will see.

[KWT]

Hello Brownsville????

I still think a little south of Brownsville but if the NW trend carries on, then they will probably end up getting a little more then they expected last night.

LF should still occur in N.Mexico, but its going to come clsoe the populated Rio Grande general region.

[ROCK]

that plains high is not as strong as some think....couple that with this stregnthening due to land friction.....wala a more rightish track...

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm3.html

[deltadog03]

I agree KWT....but, certainly looks* to make landfall north of NHC's point....Nasty weather regardless down there.

[LAwxrgal]

With a system as big as this the exact point doesn't really matter -- still going to be pretty bad, anywhere in deep south Texas and northern Mexico. Heavy rain, gusty winds and squalls -- the norms with these.

[tronbunny]

My cousins live in South Padre.
They just got power back after a pretty nasty squall line.

They have closed the causeway there, so they can't leave now if they had to.

This is alarming.
So,if Alex moves right of forecast. South Padre islanders are in for a bumpy and unpleasant ride for about 24hrs.
Scratch that.. regardless, they're not going to have a nice day, at all.

I don't like that S.Texas isn't more concerned about this.

[thetruesms]

that plains high is not as strong as some think....couple that with this stregnthening due to land friction.....wala a more rightish track...

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm3.html

Given what recon has found, it might be a good idea to step up to the 300-850 layer - if anything, it strengthens that argument.

Following AFM's lead, I did a hand analysis of the 12Z 500, and the ridging just isn't buliding in very strong at all. I found evidence of very subtle troughing all the way to DRT (Del Rio, TX).

[KWT]

A little jog to the NW I see...BRO may get 60-75 mph wind gusts if this continues. However, it should turn more west soon...we will see.

Not sure its a jog though, 6hr motion has been easily NW, indeed may even be close to NNW at times with hourly means. Of course I'd be surprised if it carried this one till landfall as well but ya just never know...

As you say they could well get som big gusts, the whole region near the border will gt big gusts and probably some very big rains given this system isn't exactly flying along at the moment.

[RachelAnna]

By the "untrained eye" it appears that the westward movement has begun.

Weather channel just said movement at this time is North West. Interesting.

TWC is likely repeating what the official advisory says, which is indeed NW.

True...

[Big O]

According to Brownsville long-range radar, NW or NNW is its current heading.

It's got to turn sudden to the left now to verify the current track.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... O&loop=yes

I'm not sure. It appears that it may have resumed more of a WNW movement. Anybody with better ideas correct me if I am wrong.

[curtadams]

With Alex' characteristics (large size, low pressure, long time over water), I'm concerned he's going to bring a surge far larger than people are probably expecting from his Cat 1 status. Sometimes we see surge damage in areas that didn't even see particularly bad weather (e.g. Dennis in the Big Bend area). Coastal areas of South Texas and North Mexico may be in for a nasty surprise.

[deltadog03]

This was kinda my concern all along. I knew all along that the ridge wouldn't be a classic ridge coming in type deal. AFM and I were talking about this on the phone. BTW, great job to you guys who did the hand drawn H5 map this am. Anyway, the center of the ridge is up near me in WY. (prolly pushing just east of me now) The current trof over the NE is leaving and there is a trof split that looks to be occuring. As that piece comes down (very weak, but noticable) it allows for a small window for alex to climb LAT a bit. It wouldn't suprise me to see this make landfall very very near BRO...maybe BRO itself.

[Evil Jeremy]

The 11AM advisory's upcoming 00z point for Alex was 24.1N and 96.7W. By the looks of things, Alex should reach 24.1N much sooner than that.

[SunnyThoughts]

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
30/1145 UTC 23.6N 95.3W T5.5/5.5 ALEX

[Big O]

Hello Brownsville????

Please elaborate. I live in McAllen/Brownsville area, and the media was for the most part stating how we had dodged a bullet and would get nothing more than heavy rain and some gusts to tropical storm strength. Most are highly complacent.

I was exhausted yesterday and fell asleep after it appeared that Alex was moving WSW. I awake and I find out that it was a wobble, that it had moved NNW overnight, and that the European had shifted north to about 60 miles south of border.

[gboudx]

This was kinda my concern all along. I knew all along that the ridge wouldn't be a classic ridge coming in type deal. AFM and I were talking about this on the phone. BTW, great job to you guys who did the hand drawn H5 map this am. Anyway, the center of the ridge is up near me in WY. (prolly pushing just east of me now) The current trof over the NE is leaving and there is a trof split that looks to be occuring. As that piece comes down (very weak, but noticable) it allows for a small window for alex to climb LAT a bit. It wouldn't suprise me to see this make landfall very very near BRO...maybe BRO itself.

And then what? Would it turn westward, or continue a more northerly component up the Rio Grande? Models have it going into the northern Mexico mountains, but a further north track could have large implications for more parts of Texas than currently forecasted.

[KWT]

According to Brownsville long-range radar, NW or NNW is its current heading.

It's got to turn sudden to the left now to verify the current track.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... O&loop=yes

I'm not sure. It appears that it may have resumed more of a WNW movement. Anybody with better ideas correct me if I am wrong.

I think your just seeing the convection suddenly beed up and expand as the system gets closer to the radar site...to me following the whole thing looks like its almost exactly NW at the moment.

[HouTXmetro]

that plains high is not as strong as some think....couple that with this stregnthening due to land friction.....wala a more rightish track...

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm3.html

Given what recon has found, it might be a good idea to step up to the 300-850 layer - if anything, it strengthens that argument.

Following AFM's lead, I did a hand analysis of the 12Z 500, and the ridging just isn't buliding in very strong at all. I found evidence of very subtle troughing all the way to DRT (Del Rio, TX).

I noticed that yesterday based on the WV images...not that it's changed the forecast but noone else seemed to listen.