ATL: MATTHEW - Models

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Post Reply
Message
Author
AxaltaRacing24
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1766
Age: 25
Joined: Wed Jul 27, 2016 11:14 am
Location: Jupiter, FL

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4101 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Sat Oct 01, 2016 11:13 am

Looking at the ridge this is hitting something this run. Unless it retreats.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
SouthFLTropics
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4239
Age: 50
Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2003 8:04 am
Location: Port St. Lucie, Florida

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4102 Postby SouthFLTropics » Sat Oct 01, 2016 11:14 am

TimeZone wrote:Western trend is done.


For now...we are still looking at a model at 5 plus days. The evolution of the ridge, trough, low near Bermuda are all still big factors. Time will tell.
0 likes   
Fourth Generation Florida Native

Personal Storm History: David 79, Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22, Milton 24
Top
User avatar
PTrackerLA
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5277
Age: 41
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 8:40 pm
Location: Lafayette, LA

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4103 Postby PTrackerLA » Sat Oct 01, 2016 11:14 am

Ridging is much stronger over mid-Atlantic this run, could get very close to the Carolinas:

Image
0 likes   
Top
HurricaneFrances04
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 597
Joined: Mon Jun 25, 2012 8:09 am
Location: Fort Lauderdale, Florida

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4104 Postby HurricaneFrances04 » Sat Oct 01, 2016 11:15 am

That's a heck of ridge that builds over the storm. Even with the eastward shift, this is gonna come real close to the East Coast.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Hypercane_Kyle
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3380
Joined: Sat Mar 07, 2015 7:58 pm
Location: Cape Canaveral, FL

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4105 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Sat Oct 01, 2016 11:16 am

Looks to me the only real difference in the 12z GFS is that Matthew turns a few dozen miles more east than the 06z. That's such a minor change that saying any future western trend is unlikely is silly, imo.
2 likes   
My posts are my own personal opinion, defer to the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and other NOAA products for decision making during hurricane season.
Top
stormreader

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4106 Postby stormreader » Sat Oct 01, 2016 11:17 am

TimeZone wrote:Western trend is done.

Until it starts again!
1 likes   
Top
User avatar
SouthFLTropics
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4239
Age: 50
Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2003 8:04 am
Location: Port St. Lucie, Florida

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4107 Postby SouthFLTropics » Sat Oct 01, 2016 11:17 am

Biggest short to mid term change is faster speed and a gnats hair more east. Longer term, more ridging.
0 likes   
Fourth Generation Florida Native

Personal Storm History: David 79, Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22, Milton 24
Top
HurrMark
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 769
Joined: Tue Aug 12, 2008 10:18 pm
Location: Somerville, MA

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4108 Postby HurrMark » Sat Oct 01, 2016 11:18 am

And don't forget...New England is part of the US too...
0 likes   
Top
SunnyThoughts
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2263
Joined: Wed Jul 09, 2003 12:42 pm
Location: Pensacola, Florida

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4109 Postby SunnyThoughts » Sat Oct 01, 2016 11:18 am

hour 138 still westward component, and strengthening from 132
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
pgoss11
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 702
Joined: Tue Sep 02, 2003 3:55 pm

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4110 Postby pgoss11 » Sat Oct 01, 2016 11:18 am

Looks like it makes the north turn at hr 144..very close to the Carolinas this run
0 likes   
Top
adam0983

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4111 Postby adam0983 » Sat Oct 01, 2016 11:19 am

You guys are amazing on here you see on model trend and the west trend is done. We need to look for patterns and see if this continues before saying such a broad statement.
2 likes   
Top
User avatar
toad strangler
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4545
Joined: Sun Jul 28, 2013 3:09 pm
Location: Earth
Contact:
Contact toad strangler

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4112 Postby toad strangler » Sat Oct 01, 2016 11:19 am

@144 takes NNE turn
0 likes   
Top
SunnyThoughts
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2263
Joined: Wed Jul 09, 2003 12:42 pm
Location: Pensacola, Florida

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4113 Postby SunnyThoughts » Sat Oct 01, 2016 11:19 am

Looks as though headed for the Sc/Nc border
0 likes   
Top
HurrMark
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 769
Joined: Tue Aug 12, 2008 10:18 pm
Location: Somerville, MA

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4114 Postby HurrMark » Sat Oct 01, 2016 11:21 am

Still E of 6z at 144 but more NW...edging towards Carolinas
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
pgoss11
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 702
Joined: Tue Sep 02, 2003 3:55 pm

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4115 Postby pgoss11 » Sat Oct 01, 2016 11:21 am

Looks like from Charleston to the Outer Bank gets some breezy and rainy conditions this run. All depends how strong Matthew is at that time as to the effect it will have.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15469
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4116 Postby NDG » Sat Oct 01, 2016 11:22 am

NC landfall on this run.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
centuryv58
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 233
Age: 67
Joined: Sat Jul 30, 2016 1:24 pm
Location: Southeast Florida

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4117 Postby centuryv58 » Sat Oct 01, 2016 11:22 am

I guess the Outer Banks guy should start worrying again.
0 likes   
Top
Alyono
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 6961
Joined: Fri Apr 26, 2013 3:52 pm
Location: Texas Coast

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4118 Postby Alyono » Sat Oct 01, 2016 11:22 am

Landfall at Cape Lookout 168 hours
0 likes   
Top
crimi481
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 603
Joined: Thu Sep 09, 2004 4:47 pm

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4119 Postby crimi481 » Sat Oct 01, 2016 11:22 am

I see no movement to the north. Only to the w.s.w. Could be just a wobble, but..... its troubling for folks that are working on the models
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
toad strangler
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4545
Joined: Sun Jul 28, 2013 3:09 pm
Location: Earth
Contact:
Contact toad strangler

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4120 Postby toad strangler » Sat Oct 01, 2016 11:22 am

SC and NC coasts getting CRUSHED
0 likes   
Top
Post Reply

Return to “2016”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 7 guests