ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[HurricaneWarning92]

I am thinking anywhere in Florida.

[Florida1118]

Yeah I dont think this is 40mph anymore...but what do i know

[SouthFloridawx]

[ConvergenceZone]

Does anyone think that these model runs are underestimating the possible intensity of Emily

or the other way around that we are overestimating the intensity of Emily.

[TwisterFanatic]

Really starting to get that circular shape really nice, and banding looks to be improving as well.

[HurricaneWarning92]

i agree.

[Cainer]

Something to remember is that deep convection ≠ overall organization. I remember Erika 09 moving through this same area while generating a huge blob of deep convection, but was still very disorganized. Sure, convection is growing, but if the center is where the NHC has placed it and is moving at 17 MPH, it is definitely not as organized if it looks. If the center has reformed closer to the islands, than that's a whole different story though. Just going to have to wait for recon (if it ever takes off )

[Hylian Auree]

That green spot indicative of intense cloud top temperatures sits right over the proposed redeveloped low-level circulation... if this is indeed the case, it'd be a dangerously favorable set-up for development...

[ROCK]

HWRF running

really wants to drop the bottom out in the next 24hrs...983 at 30hrs.....interesting..


http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... st2036.gif

[SeminoleWind]

Does anyone think that these model runs are underestimating the possible intensity of Emily

or the other way around that we are overestimating the intensity of Emily.

either way if she is gonna make the forecast points from NHC she needs to slow her role or i think they will shift it west some.

[psyclone]

Does anyone think that these model runs are underestimating the possible intensity of Emily

or the other way around that we are overestimating the intensity of Emily.

that's a valid point. someone mentioned ernesto from 2006. that uneventful scenario is certainly on the table. models seem much less bullish tonight so that carries some currency imo.

[SouthFloridawx]

HWRF running
really wants to drop the bottom out in the next 24hrs...983 at 30hrs.....interesting..
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... st2036.gif

Do you have the link to that model output?

[cheezyWXguy]

HWRF running

really wants to drop the bottom out in the next 24hrs...983 at 30hrs.....interesting..


http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... st2036.gif

It also appears further south than the previous run

[SunnyThoughts]

Rock, keep us updated on that model if you don't mind. And where is recon arggggggg can we get just ONE recon mission without problems? sighhhh apparently not.

[SFLcane]

HWRF running
really wants to drop the bottom out in the next 24hrs...983 at 30hrs.....interesting..
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... st2036.gif

Do you have the link to that model output?

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfdl.html

[SouthFloridawx]

Hey, thank you!

[Cainer]

000
WTNT35 KNHC 020537
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EMILY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052011
200 AM AST TUE AUG 02 2011

...EMILY MOVING WESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.5N 63.5W
ABOUT 265 MI...430 KM SE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR DOMINICA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GUADELOUPE...DESIRADE...LES SAINTES...AND MARIE GALANTE
* PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES AND CULEBRA
* THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* ST. KITTS...NEVIS...MONTSERRAT...AND ANTIGUA
* HAITI

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36
HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.5 WEST. EMILY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AND A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
EMILY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TODAY...AND
APPROACH THE ISLAND OF HISPANIOLA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110
KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING OR IMMINENT IN THE
WARNING AREA IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED IN PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA...AND VIEQUES LATER TODAY...AND IN
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BY TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS...IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS LATER THIS MORNING...AND
IN HAITI BY WEDNESDAY.

RAINFALL...EMILY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 2 TO 4 INCHES IN THE NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS AND LEEWARD
ISLANDS. TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN
PUERTO RICO AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS OF
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY 1 TO 2 FEET
ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. NEAR
THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS
WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[ROCK]

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... fLoop.html

HWRF...close shave of east coast of FL and Carolinas...

very close to the 18Z run

[Florida1118]

Remains 40mph.

2:00 AM AST Tue Aug 2
Location: 15.5°N 63.5°W
Max sustained: 40 mph
Moving: W at 17 mph
Min pressure: 1006 mb

[SFLcane]