Texas Winter 2014-2015

[hriverajr]

Bastardi has an interesting take for the Plains and Texas in the Saturday Summary on Weatherbell. That one is free for all

[dhweather]

Hmmm...

"@BigJoeBastardi: The Plains and south are next.. The winter there has been like a lousy game where no one scores, but it will go into overtime and crank."

Wait for it ... wait for it ... (go ahead dhweather, say it!).

Two weeks away!!!

[wxman57]

Bastardi has an interesting take for the Plains and Texas in the Saturday Summary on Weatherbell. That one is free for all

Good thing we can't trust the models that far out!

I better head out to enjoy the relative warmth this weekend and over the coming week. In 10 days it's all over for Texas as the winter storms begin.

[hriverajr]

LOL yes indeed. Although wavelengths do usually shorten as we get into the spring.....but still wont believe it till I see it...

[Texas Snowman]

Haven't seen his update yet. If he's relying solely on model support (this winter, at least), then yes, even as a winter weather enthusiast, I'd say it isn't trustworthy!

Lover of the cold or lover of the warmth, trust the models at your own peril.

Meanwhile, back to looking for that Cat 5 in the Gulf.

[Texas Snowman]

BTW, today is a momentous day - I don't know about y'all, but I'm all smiles!

After years on this board, we've all finally taught Wxman 57 something!!!

And that lesson is this: "Don't trust the models two weeks out!"

[wxman57]

:uarrow: BTW, today is a momentous day! I don't know about y'all, but I'm all smiles. After years on this board, we've finally taught Wxman 57 something!!! And that lesson is this: "Don't trust the models two weeks out!"

...unless they show warm weather, that is!

[Texas Snowman]

:uarrow: BTW, today is a momentous day! I don't know about y'all, but I'm all smiles. After years on this board, we've finally taught Wxman 57 something!!! And that lesson is this: "Don't trust the models two weeks out!"

...unless they show warm weather, that is!

[ndale]

Ok, after watching JBs analysis and looking at his maps let me make sure I understand correctly what he is saying compared to Wxman57 and someone correct me if I am interpreting it wrong. Wxman57 has said because western Canada has not had really cold air that is inhibiting our winter storms. JB shows the cold air in eastern Canada moving south into the eastern US and then being pulled from east to west toward us by weather patterns. Kind of a backdoor effect. Does this ever happen and how many of us buy into this. Therefore he is saying the end of Feb and even Mar will be cold and maybe snowy for us. Anyones thoughts?

[aggiecutter]

Ok, after watching JBs analysis and looking at his maps let me make sure I understand correctly what he is saying compared to Wxman57 and someone correct me if I am interpreting it wrong. Wxman57 has said because western Canada has not had really cold air that is inhibiting our winter storms. JB shows the cold air in eastern Canada moving south into the eastern US and then being pulled from east to west toward us by weather patterns. Kind of a backdoor effect. Does this ever happen and how many of us buy into this. Therefore he is saying the end of Feb and even Mar will be cold and maybe snowy for us. Anyones thoughts?

Assuming the model run he is referring to is correct, then he would be right. You have a split flow with lower heights in the southern plains. This would set the stage for GOM lows and possibly enough cold air over the northern third of Texas to have a significant winter storm, or storms. Actually, this is the classic setup. We'll see what happens.


I am not a meteorologist. However, my forecast are better than a monkey throwing darts at a board, although the monkey's forecast are probably more reliable than Portastorm's.

[Portastorm]

Unfortunately you are right at this moment. But if the pattern reverses as I suggested it might, then I will have my day. Oh yes...I will.

[Texas Snowman]

:uarrow:

Unfortunately you are right at this moment. But if the pattern reverses as I suggested it might, then I will have my day. Oh yes...I will.

And that's what I'm pulling for Portastorm, that YOU have your day down there in Austin! That would bring a huge smile to my face to see you get a big ticket winter weather event in ATX!!!

[orangeblood]

Ok, after watching JBs analysis and looking at his maps let me make sure I understand correctly what he is saying compared to Wxman57 and someone correct me if I am interpreting it wrong. Wxman57 has said because western Canada has not had really cold air that is inhibiting our winter storms. JB shows the cold air in eastern Canada moving south into the eastern US and then being pulled from east to west toward us by weather patterns. Kind of a backdoor effect. Does this ever happen and how many of us buy into this. Therefore he is saying the end of Feb and even Mar will be cold and maybe snowy for us. Anyones thoughts?

Assuming the model run he is referring to is correct, then he would be right. You have a split flow with lower heights in the southern plains. This would set the stage for GOM lows and possibly enough cold air over the northern third of Texas to have a significant winter storm, or storms. Actually, this is the classic setup. We'll see what happens.


I am not a meteorologist. However, my forecast are better than a monkey throwing darts at a board, although the monkey's forecast are probably more reliable than Portastorm's.

Yep, contrary to what the heat miser is suggesting...you do not have to have cold air in Western Canada to get cold and winter storms in the southern plains. In fact, the greatest snowstorm in DFW History occurred with much above normal conditions across most of Canada the 2 weeks prior. Check out the late January period in 2010 10 days prior to the snowstorm....



Then the early Feb. period centered on the snowstorm, Feb. 10-11.



Aggiecutter is right, split flow gets the best combo of cold and moisture....

[Ntxw]

Yes! But we need blocking near hudson bay. The PV sitting over it is shearing out SW systems. I'm hoping we can bomb something off Canadian Maritimes and pump ridging up there.

[TexasF6]

IT'S HAPPENING! SNOWFALL TO THE HEAT MISERS DOORSTEP! ok, enough dramatics, bring it on Old Man Winter!

[Portastorm]

All of this talk about winter returning to Texas later this month ... you'd think at least one of the medium range models would be showing something. Oh wait! There is ... check out the 18z GFS for Feb 19-20.

[gatorcane]

All of this talk about winter returning to Texas later this month ... you'd think at least one of the medium range models would be showing something. Oh wait! There is ... check out the 18z GFS for Feb 19-20.

Yep, another run with the GFS showing something like this for Texas:

[dhweather]

All of this talk about winter returning to Texas later this month ... you'd think at least one of the medium range models would be showing something. Oh wait! There is ... check out the 18z GFS for Feb 19-20.

OMG!!! CAT 5 IN, oh, wait..........

[Texas Snowman]

Now that scenario might make Wxman 57 squirm a bit!

[hriverajr]

Remember.. thats a looonng way out