ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[dwg71]

recon has it near 18.8 and 84.9 or so...seems to be right on NHC track.

[Skyhawk]

Previous fix was 18 deg 31 min N and 84 deg 27 min W. So the storm moved 10 min N and 18 min W between fixes. Movement is more west than north.

[RL3AO]

The center is much further south than that as recon has shown.

URNT12 KNHC 201757
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL042008
A. 20/17:37:30Z
B. 18 deg 31 min N
084 deg 27 min W
C. NA mb NA m
D. 40 kt
E. 026 deg 71 nm
F. 123 deg 045 kt
G. 028 deg 079 nm
H. EXTRAP 1008 mb
I. 23 C/ 401 m
J. 23 C/ 403 m
K. 19 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 134/
O. 0.02 / 9 nm
P. AF304 0604A DOLLY OB 06
MAX FL WIND 45 KT NE QUAD 17:12:20 Z
MAX FL TEMP 23 C, 4 / 20NM
SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500 FT.

[dwg71]

Previous fix was 18 deg 31 min N and 84 deg 27 min W. So the storm moved 10 min N and 18 min W between fixes. Movement is more west than north.

facts...darn facts...

[mattpetre]

recon has it near 18.8 and 84.9 or so...seems to be right on NHC track.

NHC track appears to be a degree or so south of that from what I've seen.

[CrazyC83]

Yep, at 18Z the center was at 18.5N 84.4W.

[KWT]

Yep 18.8N is within that southern convection, not far away from the turning everyone is seeing and probably will see the 305 track continue towards the NE Yucatan

dwg71...not quite the NHC track was about 30-40 miles to the south at this point, not a huge deal but considering that probably means 2-3hrs less over the Yucatan it may make a difference

edit, looks slightly less northerly than I thought, probably more like 290 between the two fixes.

[Skyhawk]

Is this your estimation or is it official? If it is official please provide a link even if it is to somewhere else on this site.[/Quote]

Current recon

viewtopic.php?f=59&t=101883&st=0&sk=t&sd=a&start=360

[littlevince]

[KWT]

Also that fix means its bang in the middle of the convection and probably suggests this system is steadily organising still.

[CrazyC83]

Now at 18.6N 84.7W per vortex message.

[deltadog03]

Well, it looks like that llc is def. working its way towards the mlc and the middle of the cloud mess. So, imo right now, I see this trying to hook up with the mlc and that means it has to migrate towards the N or NNE...

[Skyhawk]

Lastest vortex 3 mins south and 1 min east of my estimate from the obs.

URNT12 KNHC 201949
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL042008
A. 20/19:21:00Z
B. 18 deg 38 min N
084 deg 44 min W
C. NA mb NA m
D. 20 kt
E. 129 deg 41 nm
F. 167 deg 024 kt
G. 130 deg 053 nm
H. EXTRAP 1008 mb
I. 24 C/ 400 m
J. 23 C/ 398 m
K. 20 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 134/1
O. 0.02 / 5 nm
P. AF304 0604A DOLLY OB 09
MAX FL WIND 45 KT NE QUAD 17:12:20 Z
MAX FL TEMP 24 C, 130 / 52NM
SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500 FT
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 24KT NW QUAD 1931Z

[RL3AO]

Thats a movement of 293 between the two VDMs

[KWT]

Yep Crazy the vortex is a little to the east and south of where was estimated before hand, makes no difference to the track however.

deltadog03, agreed but recon seems to show that it hasn't actually began to work its way towards it just yet.

293, not far off my earlier estimate based on recon of 295...

[deltadog03]

Oh, I agree...It will/should..

[Over my head]

Oh Deltadog3. Say it aint so.

[dwg71]

Well, it looks like that llc is def. working its way towards the mlc and the middle of the cloud mess. So, imo right now, I see this trying to hook up with the mlc and that means it has to migrate towards the N or NNE...

7 minutes north and 17 West, moving right along WNW or just south of that.

[Nederlander]

seems to me that its at 19.5N 83.8W ? that just my visible location

[jinftl]

trying to discern a center using IR is almost impossible for a developing system....going to have to defer to the measurements and say the movement is WNW...on track

Well, it looks like that llc is def. working its way towards the mlc and the middle of the cloud mess. So, imo right now, I see this trying to hook up with the mlc and that means it has to migrate towards the N or NNE...

7 minutes north and 17 West, moving right along WNW or just south of that.