Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[Ntxw]

:uarrow: It was enough of a change along with the 00Z GFS temp profiles that Houston/Galveston mentioned wintry precip chance in NW zones. 96-108 hrs did show some sleet at IAH via the overnight GFS.

If the latest EC were to verify I would bet it could happen! And yeah this system looks to be a doozy. That's a heck of a lot of precip in the panhandles post front which looks quite nice on the maps

[Portastorm]

i will even say rightnow i think this storm system has the chance to be even bigger then the christmas snow storm
with some areas if things come together right some areas could pick up over a foot and ahalf to two feet! i dont think thats over doing this system... stay tuned...


The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

msstateguy83 ... where have you been buddy?!

Good to see you back and posting. Did you see that the 0z GFS lays down a wide swath of snow across the panhandle of Texas with accumulations of more than a foot?

[iorange55]

i will even say rightnow i think this storm system has the chance to be even bigger then the christmas snow storm
with some areas if things come together right some areas could pick up over a foot and ahalf to two feet! i dont think thats over doing this system... stay tuned...


The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

msstateguy83 ... where have you been buddy?!

Good to see you back and posting. Did you see that the 0z GFS lays down a wide swath of snow across the panhandle of Texas with accumulations of more than a foot?

He's the Jim Cantore of this board. We bring him out when potential huge winter storms are coming, and send him out to bring us the latest news to keep us safe.

[srainhoutx]

Looks like Southerngale's chirpping noise woke up more than tthe crickets. In all seriousness folks, we will need to pay close attention the next couple of days as we get a better handle on the storm trrack. After the January Thaw, some folks may be caught a bit off gaurd by the changes ahead. Sure does have a "Christmas Eve Storm" feel to it, doesn't it.

[txagwxman]

With fresh snow cover TX Panhandle to Tulsa could see < 0F Sat morning. 6-12" possible with this system, especially Pampa to Gage. GFS even has snow in DFW on Friday behind the system...should be light though...get ready to bundle up. GFS does have sleet IAH on Friday, but have my doubts on that.

BUT HARD FREEZE AGAIN this Saturday. mid 20s likely IAH/DWH...22F CXO.

[Portastorm]

msstateguy83 ... where have you been buddy?!

Good to see you back and posting. Did you see that the 0z GFS lays down a wide swath of snow across the panhandle of Texas with accumulations of more than a foot?

He's the Jim Cantore of this board. We bring him out when potential huge winter storms are coming, and send him out to bring us the latest news to keep us safe.

LOL, that's pretty good iorange55! But remember the Cantore Rule about tropical systems ... usually where he is, the storm ain't!

[Portastorm]

:cold:
With fresh snow cover TX Panhandle to Tulsa could see < 0F Sat morning. 6-12" possible with this system, especially Pampa to Gage. GFS even has snow in DFW on Friday behind the system...should be light though...get ready to bundle up.

Am curious about your thoughts on the Euro ... does it lag just enough energy behind to create post-frontal precip or are we just talking mid-level cloudiness? Is the Euro doing its usual error of leaving too much energy behind in the Southwest?

[srainhoutx]

12 NAM suggests the 500mb Low a bit further S and stronger. Looks like moderate to heavy precip from New Mexico across the TX Panhandle into OK...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[Portastorm]

I missed this little tidbit from the Amarillo NWSFO AFD this morning. Something for all of us to keep in mind regarding this week's storm.

THE MAJOR WEATHER STORY CONTINUES TO BE THE MID WEEK SYSTEM. THE
GFS AND ECMWF HAVE CONTINUED TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH BOTH
THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM. THIS IS REMARKABLE CONSIDERING
THAT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL NOT EVEN COME ON SHORE...THUS WON`T BE
WELL SAMPLED BY RAOBS...UNTIL TOMORROW EVENING AT THE EARLIEST.

[Weatherdude20]

Thanks for everyones support, and lets all thank Msstateguy for his work.


This Potent Winter Storm brewing has the potential to be as powerfull has the Christmas Eve Storm or stronger. As of now, Areas North of 1-20 to Red River could see 4-6 Inches of Snow fom Thursday afternoon to Friday. Changeover should occur NorthWest to SouthEast from Gainseville to Decatur to Mineral Wells by 5:00pm and from Sherman to Denton to Fort Worth line around 6:00 all snow. Approaching the Dallas area at 7:00 pm with temps hovering around 32. Along and south of Interstate 20, at this time you could pick up 1-3 inches of Snow Accumulation. This can or may change from now to then, Lack of data applies. Data from the Low will become moire avalible post landfall, which is expected around this evening.

Furthermore: Expectations Thursday... Temps starting around mid- to lower 50's droping steadily througout the day. This will cause a cold rain, until 5:00 pm then possibly a light mix gradually changing over by 7:00.

Note: A Heavier swath of Snow bands will persist causing snow Drifting, Blowing Snow, and heavier accumulations from Amarillo to Childress, and again from Oklahoma City to Ardmore, Oklahoma. These Bullseye locations may need a stronger Warning issued in the coming days. A Winter Advisory may be neccesary for the DFW area Thursday afternoon.

I will agree the NWS is downplaying this event as always, but please be understanding, as a national oraganiztion they can't predict a major Texas Snow Storm and be wrong about it so they must be conservative about it.

Please stay tuned, after a nap, with Mild temps persiting for 2 weeks Winter will awaken Thursday.


The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

[Portastorm]

Our friends from the NWSFO Fort Worth are chiming in with an interesting snippet from their mid-morning AFD:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1039 AM CST MON JAN 25 2010

.UPDATE...
CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND THE ONLY NOTEWORTHY ADJUSTMENT
WAS TO INCREASE TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO AREA WIDE.
OTHERWISE...THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE THE CHANCE
FOR WINTER PRECIP/SNOW ON THURSDAY. THE NEW GFS HAS COME IN COLDER
AND MORE EXPANSIVE WITH ITS PRECIP BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW AND WILL
CONTINUE EVALUATE ADDITIONAL DATA AS IT COMES IN.

[Weatherdude20]

NWSFO coming on board?

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1039 AM CST MON JAN 25 2010

.UPDATE...
CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND THE ONLY NOTEWORTHY ADJUSTMENT
WAS TO INCREASE TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO AREA WIDE.
OTHERWISE...THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE THE CHANCE
FOR WINTER PRECIP/SNOW ON THURSDAY. THE NEW GFS HAS COME IN COLDER
AND MORE EXPANSIVE WITH ITS PRECIP BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW AND WILL
CONTINUE EVALUATE ADDITIONAL DATA AS IT COMES IN

[Weatherdude20]

Our friends from the NWSFO Fort Worth are chiming in with an interesting snippet from their mid-morning AFD:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1039 AM CST MON JAN 25 2010

.UPDATE...
CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND THE ONLY NOTEWORTHY ADJUSTMENT
WAS TO INCREASE TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO AREA WIDE.
OTHERWISE...THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE THE CHANCE
FOR WINTER PRECIP/SNOW ON THURSDAY. THE NEW GFS HAS COME IN COLDER
AND MORE EXPANSIVE WITH ITS PRECIP BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW AND WILL
CONTINUE EVALUATE ADDITIONAL DATA AS IT COMES IN.

Oh, ahaha, sorry.

[Weatherdude20]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 3_084m.gif

GFS, Thursday, verify precip.

[gboudx]

Our friends from the NWSFO Fort Worth are chiming in with an interesting snippet from their mid-morning AFD:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1039 AM CST MON JAN 25 2010

.UPDATE...
CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND THE ONLY NOTEWORTHY ADJUSTMENT
WAS TO INCREASE TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO AREA WIDE.
OTHERWISE...THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE THE CHANCE
FOR WINTER PRECIP/SNOW ON THURSDAY. THE NEW GFS HAS COME IN COLDER
AND MORE EXPANSIVE WITH ITS PRECIP BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW AND WILL
CONTINUE EVALUATE ADDITIONAL DATA AS IT COMES IN.

Not surprising. Hell froze over last night. The surface will follow.

[Weatherdude20]

Not surprising. Hell froze over last night. The surface will follow.

Haha, agree =)

[Ntxw]

One thing to note there is very cold air building and moving in northwest\central Canada.

Edit: This storm also wants to close off which could change some things vs the open wave it had prior.

[Weatherdude20]

One thing to note there is very cold air building and moving in northwest\central Canada.

Noteworthy, but its not the most signifcant of Polar type air.

[srainhoutx]

CMC also suggesting a rather potent Upper Air feature and some 700mb moisture as the Upper Low moves across the TX Coastal areas...

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/CMC_12z/cmcloop.html

[Weatherdude20]

This thread needs to be more fired up !

Start something ! Were about to get a Blizard in 3 days and its not very active !