ATL: HARVEY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[NDG]

Right when I think is looking it keeps looking better.

[lrak]

You all have to realize they are talking about the center ashore not the eyewall. .. tje entire half of the circulation has to be onshore. Thats at least 6 hours.

The eyewall though is going to be pounding areas for hours ! Wind damage from such a prolonged high wind event is going to be high

WHAT? I misread I thought it was going to do the loop and head east?

[blp]

Looks like eyewall expansion might bring Corpus Christi into the eyewall. Wow going to be close.

[txwatcher91]

Is it me or does this seem to be going more WNW on radar and satellite in the last few frames?

Its wobbling

If it wobbles west too much that would put Corpus Christi in the western or southwest eyewall.

[Hurricane Andrew]

TO all those on the shoreline, you are about to get whacked; extremely intense band of core convection is moving in...please, secure and stay safe!

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?pa ... o1-13-48-1

[Ken711]

Have the models reached a consensus on the intensity at landfall?

[stephen23]

Right when I think is looking it keeps looking better.

I sure hope that West trend doesn't continue and this thing isnt making the cyclonic loop off shore that models showed it to do over land.

[Portaransas]

On the north side of Mustang Island (Port Aransas), there is a large ship channel / ferry way which leads to Corpus Christi bay. There are stone jetties and a small very small seawall, but due to the angle of approach I can only imagine the mass amount of water that is getting pushed into that channel and into the bay.

[artist]

000
URNT12 KNHC 252055
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092017
A. 25/20:33:30Z
B. 27 deg 28 min N
096 deg 34 min W
C. 700 mb 2601 m
D. 97 kt
E. 231 deg 6 nm
F. 326 deg 93 kt
G. 231 deg 6 nm
H. 941 mb
I. 14 C / 3048 m
J. 17 C / 3050 m
K. 15 C / NA
L. CLOSED
M. C18
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF307 1909A HARVEY OB 14
MAX FL WIND 117 KT 115 / 27 NM 18:30:30Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 129 KT 049 / 13 NM 20:37:40Z
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 300 / 5 KT
;

[jdjaguar]

Have the models reached a consensus on the intensity at landfall?

We are past looking at models for landfall intensity.

Real-time Data is flowing in via planes in the storm.

Check out the recon thread for the latest.

Harvey is currently on the cusp of CAT 4

[Sanibel]

129KTS! Flight Level...Should be an intensifying hurricane on landfall...Steady pressure 941...

[jlauderdal]

Is it me or does this seem to be going more WNW on radar and satellite in the last few frames?

Its wobbling

If it wobbles west too much that would put Corpus Christi in the western or southwest eyewall.

That dopey mayor mccomb didnt issue an evacuation order

[Frank P]

might be coming in perpendicular to the coast, only going to exacerbate the storm surge... eye wall still looks just about as good as it gets..

[gatorcane]

looks to me like Harvey might be slowing down looking at latest NWS radar loop.

[Kingarabian]

Its wobbling

If it wobbles west too much that would put Corpus Christi in the western or southwest eyewall.

That dopey mayor mccomb didnt issue an evacuation order

No mandatory evacuations in Corpus Christie?!

[Langinbang187]

I wonder how this will measure up to Ike.

[SouthFloridian92]

This storm is crazy! Weird how everywhere else but FL has gotten hurricane action in the last 11 years. Matthew didn't do much.

[Aric Dunn]

You all have to realize they are talking about the center ashore not the eyewall. .. tje entire half of the circulation has to be onshore. Thats at least 6 hours.

The eyewall though is going to be pounding areas for hours ! Wind damage from such a prolonged high wind event is going to be high

WHAT? I misread I thought it was going to do the loop and head east?

Lol well yhe steering is about to drop.. how far inland is going to key

[tolakram]

HurricaneTrack cameras



Link: https://youtu.be/fDtjk9bpoDU

[Ntxw]

I wonder how this will measure up to Ike.

Surge may not be as strong as Ike due to some circumstances and location of landfall, but it is just as fierce if not more.

Again if this were in the EPAC or WPAC it looks good enough to be estimated for Cat 4. When you can see blue clear down the eye on JSL loops you know it takes a very intense storm to get that view.