Texas Winter 2022-2023

[EnnisTx]

Winter Storm Watch for my area, will be upgraded to warning later today.

Tulsa increasing my totals too... I've gone from less than an inch to 2-3 inches. It won't surprise me if we're trending towards even higher numbers

Entrenching my hate for Oklahoma haha.

Second that! Isn’t there someone on here smart enough to start Oklahoma Winter 2022-2023?

[snowballzzz]

My weather station hit 19 degrees this morning. I’m in the hills near Amon Carter lake and house sits in a valley the bottom of a hill next to the creek. Seems like most cold and calm nights, the cold air sinks right down to me.

[Tammie]

Who thinks we could have a Red River doozy in store for some 6-8 inch totals?

Only in my dreams…. Only on my dreams…

[Gotwood]

My weather station hit 19 degrees this morning. I’m in the hills near Amon Carter lake and house sits in a valley the bottom of a hill next to the creek. Seems like most cold and calm nights, the cold air sinks right down to me.

Yeah mine gets colder too I’m out in southwest Parker county and my weather station got down to 22. None of the temps this morning really matter though. We just have to have clear sky’s long enough tonight to get us back under 40 degrees before the clouds and precipitation roll in. If that doesn’t happen my chance of snow is virtually zero.

[TropicalTundra]

My weather station hit 19 degrees this morning. I’m in the hills near Amon Carter lake and house sits in a valley the bottom of a hill next to the creek. Seems like most cold and calm nights, the cold air sinks right down to me.

Yeah mine gets colder too I’m out in southwest Parker county and my weather station got down to 22. None of the temps this morning really matter though. We just have to have clear sky’s long enough tonight to get us back under 40 degrees before the clouds and precipitation roll in. If that doesn’t happen my chance of snow is virtually zero.

It’s 27 here. Just need temps to drop fast throughout the evening. If temps struggle to rise today they’ll probably plummet at night possibly pushing snow line farther south

[bubba hotep]

12z models are running, HRRR coming in strong for the northern burbs of DFW

[rwfromkansas]

Well I was going to write off DFW. Lol.

The latest GEFS was better for me at 10-1 of 4 inches. But, of course maybe an inch will stick if lucky. We need this delayed and digging so it’s more at night than afternoon/night.

But, I doubt I will get much beyond a few big flakes at the end.

[Iceresistance]

Tulsa increasing my totals too... I've gone from less than an inch to 2-3 inches. It won't surprise me if we're trending towards even higher numbers

Entrenching my hate for Oklahoma haha.

Second that! Isn’t there someone on here smart enough to start Oklahoma Winter 2022-2023?

Oklahoma gets the worst of the cold and snow before Texas does.

[orangeblood]

12z models are running, HRRR coming in strong for the northern burbs of DFW

https://m2o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/hrrr/2023012312/038/ref1km_ptype.us_sc.png

Yes, it is!! 1" plus per hour rate potential coming thru on the back side of ULL tomorrow evening (accumulation ratios are lower but still heavy snow). Could be an enjoyable show to watch, too bad it's after sunset!



Also, check out the front band early afternoon (2" plus per hr)...major surprise potential with this system

[bubba hotep]

Well I was going to write off DFW. Lol.

The latest GEFS was better for me at 10-1 of 4 inches. But, of course maybe an inch will stick if lucky. We need this delayed and digging so it’s more at night than afternoon/night.

But, I doubt I will get much beyond a few big flakes at the end.

The HRRR does show some snow across northern areas with the initial push and that probably doesn't happen or melts on contact. Then the wrap around would be after sunset, so even with temps running 33/34F, it should stick to roofs and car tops to at least look like winter weather. Does it survive to morning? Probably not but it could be a fun couple of hours for kids in the northern burbs, if the HRRR verifies.

[Cerlin]

12z HRRR had good trends for essentially everyone, plus it initialized way too warm this morning already.  https://twitter.com/weltywx/status/1617525290925981696

[orangeblood]

Looking to medium range, serious Arctic Dam bursting potential on the table for almost the entire lower 48 early Feb. Pattern is overwhelming North America with cold and really nice battle ground setting up from southern plains to mid atlantic

[orangeblood]

Also, check out the major difference in Euro ENS vs CMC/GFS ENS for next week...we all know the glaring flaw in the Euro forecast system with shallow Arctic Airmasses. Couldn't be more apparent than on this depiction, CMC has been proven to handle shallow/dense cold airmasses much better

Euro ENS


CMC ENS

[HockeyTx82]

Also, check out the major difference in Euro ENS vs CMC/GFS ENS for next week...we all know the glaring flaw in the Euro forecast system with shallow Arctic Airmasses. Couldn't be more apparent than on this depiction, CMC has been proven to handle shallow/dense cold airmasses much better

Euro ENS
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-avg/namer/t2m_f_anom/1674432000/1675188000-Aywd2Icur7k.png

CMC ENS
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/cmc-ensemble-all-avg/namer/t2m_f_anom/1674432000/1675188000-3BJRp0uLFmA.png

Are we looking at Feb 21 again? It was around this time I think in Jan 21 the GFS started to sniff it out and boy did it deliver.

I mean the Cowboys are out of the post season again so history repeating itself is a thing.

[rwfromkansas]

Lows were colder than forecast here in DFW. I got down to 28 when it was forecast to be 32.

That said, ahead of big storms, there often is that warm surge.

We just as likely could be 4 degrees warmer than forecast tonight....

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Latest NBM.

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/nbm-conus/tx/total_snow_10to1/1674414000/1674777600-CZuOGZupM6k.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/nbm-conus/tx/total_precip_inch/1674414000/1674712800-kkJcm38DYRg.png

Probably info available on this, at what percentile do they use to produce this model? 25%-75%? Some outliers can really throw off the data

[orangeblood]

Also, check out the major difference in Euro ENS vs CMC/GFS ENS for next week...we all know the glaring flaw in the Euro forecast system with shallow Arctic Airmasses. Couldn't be more apparent than on this depiction, CMC has been proven to handle shallow/dense cold airmasses much better

Euro ENS
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-avg/namer/t2m_f_anom/1674432000/1675188000-Aywd2Icur7k.png

CMC ENS
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/cmc-ensemble-all-avg/namer/t2m_f_anom/1674432000/1675188000-3BJRp0uLFmA.png

Are we looking at Feb 21 again? It was around this time I think in Jan 21 the GFS started to sniff it out and boy did it deliver.

I mean the Cowboys are out of the post season again so history repeating itself is a thing.

Lol the Cowboys are such a joke!

Obviously going the Feb 21' route is way too extreme at this point. However, I will say this kind of Mean High Pressure look from the GEFS with sprawling HP from the Arctic to the southern plains is what got my attention back in late Jan 21'. Likely not as cold as Feb 21' but the long lasting duration could be similar this time around.

[Gotwood]

Lows were colder than forecast here in DFW. I got down to 28 when it was forecast to be 32.

That said, ahead of big storms, there often is that warm surge.

We just as likely could be 4 degrees warmer than forecast tonight....

Yeah I will be watching the temps closely. Really need the clouds to stay away till after midnight if that can happen I think DFW has a real shot to get hammered with some measurable snow fall.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Looking to medium range, serious Arctic Dam bursting potential on the table for almost the entire lower 48 early Feb. Pattern is overwhelming North America with cold and really nice battle ground setting up from southern plains to mid atlantic

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/nhemi/t2m_f_anom/1674453600/1675382400-caUen5iYLPI.png

This map compared to what this looked like 2 weeks ago is a great example of the "bathtub slosh" theory. Cold was just in Siberia, and has sloshed back to North America.

edit: also note how each snowstorm for the past week has steadily dropped lower than the previous one. Curious to see the snowfall cover map after this coming Red River storm.

[orangeblood]

Looking to medium range, serious Arctic Dam bursting potential on the table for almost the entire lower 48 early Feb. Pattern is overwhelming North America with cold and really nice battle ground setting up from southern plains to mid atlantic

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/nhemi/t2m_f_anom/1674453600/1675382400-caUen5iYLPI.png

This map compared to what this looked like 2 weeks ago is a great example of the "bathtub slosh" theory. Cold was just in Siberia, and has sloshed back to North America.

edit: also note how each snowstorm for the past week has steadily dropped lower than the previous one. Curious to see the snowfall cover map after this coming Red River storm.

Yep, bathtub slosh/rubber band theory...you name it, there's no doubt something to it. The more extreme one side of hemisphere gets, you see almost the equal but opposite reaction on the other.

Note: Siberia saw its coldest readings in almost 40 years at -80F plus a couple of weeks ago. Potential is no doubt there for this upcoming cold snap to go extreme