ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Rail Dawg]

Ok this is my 17th storm but the first one where I’m many miles away from the action out here in Northern Nevada.

However, I can tell you that if I was chasing this storm I would be 100% committed to a tall parking lot garage in Ft Meyers. New chasers will want to go to the beaches. Chase the million likes by catching the stadium effect. They do not realize the surge may rise behind them blocking their only exit. I’ve almost been trapped many times.

Hence I commit to the garage regardless of what the eye does. It’s a potential death sentence otherwise.

Been through this so many times. So much adventure. But Ian is going to hammer Florida very hard and things will be miserable for weeks.

Brace for impact.

Chuck

[chaser1]

Dropsonde measured 357 kt at 850 mb lol

Now that might just make a few regret not evacuating

[skillz305]

Supposed to have strong bands coming into the treasure coast from the south from midnight-4am

[jdray]

Dropsonde measured 357 kt at 850 mb lol

Now that might just make a few regret not evacuating

I'm not sure one could successfully evacuate when it's clearly a CAT8 storm coming through.

[LandoWill]

Looks like by thursday afternoon here in land o lakes, we'll be able to start putting out our Halloween stuff. Funny my pool guy messaged me yesterday saying how their storm cleanup is $95 an hour. Hope he wasn't anticipating that extra income from this event.

[kerouactivist]

Am I reading the info wrong or did key west just set a record with the observed water levels?

[chaser1]

Ok this is my 17th storm but the first one where I’m many miles away from the action out here in Northern Nevada.

However, I can tell you that if I was chasing this storm I would be 100% committed to a tall parking lot garage in Ft Meyers. New chasers will want to go to the beaches. Chase the million likes by catching the stadium effect. They do not realize the surge may rise behind them blocking their only exit. I’ve almost been trapped many times.

Hence I commit to the garage regardless of what the eye does. It’s a potential death sentence otherwise.

Been through this so many times. So much adventure. But Ian is going to hammer Florida very hard and things will be miserable for weeks.

Brace for impact.

Chuck

In my parallel Universe, nothing will excite me more then coming across a three story parking garage somewhere between Kendall Drive and Homestead.

[ElectricStorm]

Hurricane Ian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
1200 AM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022

...12 AM EDT HURRICANE IAN POSITION UPDATE...
...STORM SURGE WARNING ISSUED FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS...

A special advisory will be released by 1230 AM EDT (0430 UTC) to
issue a Storm Surge Warning for the Lower Florida Keys from Big
Pine Key westward to Key West. There will be no changes to the
track or intensity forecast.

The Key West International Airport recently reported a sustained
wind of 55 mph (89 km/h) with a gust to 79 mph (128 km/h). An
elevated WeatherFlow station at Smith Shoal Light reported a
sustained wind of 64 mph (104 km/h) with a gust of 93 mph (150
km/h).

SUMMARY OF 1200 AM EDT...0400 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.9N 82.9W
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM SW OF NAPLES FLORIDA
ABOUT 15 MI...20 KM N OF THE DRY TORTUGAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...953 MB...28.14 INCHES

[PandaCitrus]

May not get to Cat 8 but high end Cat 4 or even a 5 if these cold cloud tops wrap around at the end of this eyewall replacement cycle. The last half hour has been very impressive on the IR. Very scary situation for Ft. Myers metro right now. I don't think most know what is coming for them tomorrow.

[CronkPSU]

Am I reading the info wrong or did key west just set a record with the observed water levels?

it was close earlier (3rd highest since 1913) and high tide was rolling in around 11:30

the southern most cam is crazy right now

https://southernmostpointwebcam.com/

[chaser1]

Dropsonde measured 357 kt at 850 mb lol

Now that might just make a few regret not evacuating

I'm not sure one could successfully evacuate when it's clearly a CAT8 storm coming through.

Chin down and keep the wind to your back

[wx98]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 28 SEP 2022 Time : 032020 UTC
Lat : 24:58:47 N Lon : 82:51:36 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.4 / 933mb / 125kts


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.4 6.7 6.7

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 13 km

Center Temp : -5.1C Cloud Region Temp : -72.1C

Scene Type : EYE

Subtropical Adjustment : OFF

Extratropical Adjustment : OFF

Positioning Method : ARCHER POSITIONING

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

Raw Ts are ticking back up.

[St0rmTh0r]

Most of my family is in the Cape Coral / Fort Myers area. Praying for a miracle right now.

theyll be ok

[cheezyWXguy]

Man that latest dropsonde in the sw quad is bizarre. 128kt at 890mb, but only 65kt at 966mb (surface). I suspect this latest burst will mix those winds down

[WAcyclone]

The Air Force Hurricane Hunters just shared an incredible four-minute video of the eye penetration earlier on the 27th. The views of the stadium effect together with the violent ocean surface (starting at minute 3:30) are surreal:

https://www.dvidshub.net/video/858819/hurricane-ian

[Rail Dawg]

By the way my hat is off as always to all of you contributing in a useful way to this forum. I’m still learning and the new technology is incredible. I had to hand-draw charts and then decide where the storm was going.

Also much respect to the old-timers on here with whom I have been able to share many adventures. They were also many times the key to a successful chase.

Moderators and markalot… ya’ll rock.

Chuck

[kerouactivist]

Am I reading the info wrong or did key west just set a record with the observed water levels?

it was close earlier (3rd highest since 1913) and high tide was rolling in around 11:30

the southern most cam is crazy right now

https://southernmostpointwebcam.com/

Am I looking at the wrong data then?

UTC

2022/09/28 01:18 1.794 3.9 -
2022/09/28 01:24 1.825 3.94 -
2022/09/28 01:30 1.855 3.9 -
2022/09/28 01:36 1.884 3.96 -
2022/09/28 01:42 1.912 3.98 -
2022/09/28 01:48 1.939 3.98 -
2022/09/28 01:54 1.966 3.95 -
2022/09/28 02:00 1.991 3.99 -
2022/09/28 02:06 2.014 4.02 -
2022/09/28 02:12 2.037 4.01 -
2022/09/28 02:18 2.058 4.04 -
2022/09/28 02:24 2.078 4.13 -
2022/09/28 02:30 2.097 4.14 -
2022/09/28 02:36 2.114 4.19 -
2022/09/28 02:42 2.129 4.18 -
2022/09/28 02:48 2.143 4.22 -
2022/09/28 02:54 2.156 4.25 -
2022/09/28 03:00 2.166 4.17 -
2022/09/28 03:06 2.175 4.22 -
2022/09/28 03:12 2.183 4.19 -
2022/09/28 03:18 2.188 4.27 -
2022/09/28 03:24 2.192 4.18 -
2022/09/28 03:30 2.193 4.14 -
2022/09/28 03:36 2.193 4.09 -
2022/09/28 03:42 2.191 4.04 -
2022/09/28 03:48 2.187 4.02 -
2022/09/28 03:54 2.18 4

[Teban54]

VDM shows eyewall was still open to the E, which is also supported by radar and IR at that time. However, radar suggests it might have closed right after that center pass.

[Rail Dawg]

Ok this is my 17th storm but the first one where I’m many miles away from the action out here in Northern Nevada.

However, I can tell you that if I was chasing this storm I would be 100% committed to a tall parking lot garage in Ft Meyers. New chasers will want to go to the beaches. Chase the million likes by catching the stadium effect. They do not realize the surge may rise behind them blocking their only exit. I’ve almost been trapped many times.

Hence I commit to the garage regardless of what the eye does. It’s a potential death sentence otherwise.

Been through this so many times. So much adventure. But Ian is going to hammer Florida very hard and things will be miserable for weeks.

Brace for impact.

Chuck

In my parallel Universe, nothing will excite me more then coming across a three story parking garage somewhere between Kendall Drive and Homestead.

And that right there was the challenge of chasing. If I couldn’t get my truck up 30 feet above the ocean I kept on moving until I could.

Well in advance of the surge.

Chuck

[Fancy1001]

The east southeast section of the eyewall has looked underwhelming for the last few hours compared to the rest of the eyewall.