ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[deltadog03]

Well, it looks like that llc is def. working its way towards the mlc and the middle of the cloud mess. So, imo right now, I see this trying to hook up with the mlc and that means it has to migrate towards the N or NNE...

7 minutes north and 17 West, moving right along WNW or just south of that.

Ok, its not happening as fast I said...But, they will have to meet at some point.

[cheezyWXguy]

Well, it looks like that llc is def. working its way towards the mlc and the middle of the cloud mess. So, imo right now, I see this trying to hook up with the mlc and that means it has to migrate towards the N or NNE...

7 minutes north and 17 West, moving right along WNW or just south of that.

Ok, its not happening as fast I said...But, they will have to meet at some point.

Yeah, it looks like either its slowly happening, or getting ready to happen. Deep convection is now swirling around the area where the mlc and llc will likely meet. I expect by tonight we should a very well organized system.

[funster]

It looks like the center is between the convection. Is that just an illusion that amateurs like me fall for. Is Dolly trying to trick me?! :]

[Derek Ortt]

have been looking at 1km imagery that we ar getting more frequently than is available online... the center is where recon says is it. I dont see anything on the higher resolution visible where some are putting it

[Innotech]

I think Dolly wants to visit Cancun up close and personal.

[RL3AO]

NHC 21/1545z position with the 21/0z and 21/12z forecast points plotted. The two blue dots are the two VDMs from the most recent flight.

[ROCK]

NHC 21/1545z position with the 21/0z and 21/12z forecast points plotted. The two blue dots are the two VDMs from the most recent flight.

not going to argue with the NHC....data is data but what I am seeing is not the area I would put the center....currently.

[Innotech]

NHC 21/1545z position with the 21/0z and 21/12z forecast points plotted. The two blue dots are the two VDMs from the most recent flight.

not going to argue with the NHC....data is data but what I am seeing is not the area I would put the center....currently.

its obviously not where Dolly wants her center eitherr.

[funster]

[Dionne]

Don't we have a Storm2K member at Cancun right now? Or did plans change?

[RL3AO]

Nope funster.

[ROCK]

not exactly...I would put it alittle further south but north of the RECON fixes. That is the MLC or was the MLC......

[TheShrimper]

Derek, is that the same imagery you used when you said a center wasn't going to form. Just asking, so I can make an evaluation of the situation.

[RL3AO]

not exactly...I would put it alittle further south but north of the RECON fixes. That is the MLC or was the MLC......

Recon was flying at 925mb. How could it be the MLC?

[ColdFusion]

As usual, the NHC is almost dead on.

[Cape Verde]

So why is there no SW/2 of the storm?

[Just Joshing You]

Is it just me or is that an eye?

[Derek Ortt]

the 1km imagery is the same, though then I was only getting the images every half hour (I was at home yesterday and was using 4km imagery)

now that it is closer to the USA, we get images about every 15 minutes, sometimes more frequently

[RL3AO]

Is it just me or is that an eye?

Its not just you, but its not an eye.

[cheezyWXguy]

So why is there no SW/2 of the storm?

Inflow is hard to maintain due to the mountains to the west, and this is a newly developed storm. Give it time and youll see what youre looking for.

And extradited, its just you...thats a MLC