ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[gatorcane]

AFM:
So if 92L tracks south of of DR what does that say to an expected future track?

I think the Fl panhandle or possibly as far west as AL could have issues. ...but somewhere along the west coast of FL would be my guess...

and keep in mind that is a BIG IF...its currently tracking right through the island as most model guidance has suggested.

[weatherguru18]

It's WAY WAY early to call a landfall right now. Yesterday, some of you were certain this looked like and east coast storm because all the models said so.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

It is clear to me where the LLC is near 18.7/68.5. It appears to be just north of where the nhc puts it. Also You can also see that ob stations to the south have a westly wind. So it is a LLC. It is moving maybe 280 just off west.

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/cira/RAMM ... pical.html

[vbhoutex]

I certainly did not expect this to head south of the DR, and it appears it might be doing so. This is one of the most poorly handled systems by the models in recent memory.

That is because there is not a strong LLCC to initialize from. Even witht the strong MLC, it is not necessarily going to be a good initialization since, as we have seen on the radar and sat loops they are not aligned at all.

[gatorcane]

and using this link you can see the "trough" that should start affecting 92L over the next couple of days to give it that turn north. See it diving down over the East Coast of the US --- still can't see this making it too far west in the GOM....

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-wv.html

[ronjon]

If the GFDL is to be believed, don't look for 92L to become a tropical cyclone for 24-36 hrs - it needs to move west of Hispanola before that model starts the development and pressure falls.

[GreenSky]

I SURE hope the models don't ever shift towards NOLA or even here in TX....we've had more than our statistical average quota this year with Dolly and Edouard.

[Stratosphere747]

15/1745 UTC 18.1N 68.6W T2.5/2.5 92L

[txag2005]

Is the general consensus still that this thing will form?

[jlauderdal]

I think it's kind of funny too. Particularly the news reporters getting so uppity when it's 4 days away from FL anyway.

I'm sorry if I offend anyone but this is becoming comical.
We some who think the "center" is north of DR and others
who think it's south and then there are the ones who can't
find any center or don't care because it still "looks" so good it should be a TS already.
All of that in itself should tell you a lot about the current state of 92L.
There is a ton of smoke but NO fire.

Well, as far as preparation goes... 4 days away is not really that far away!

its plenty for the people that do what they should before the season starts, if 2 days isnt enough than you will never be prepared

[GreenSky]

Is the general consensus still that this thing will form?

Who knows? 92L has been one of the most frustratingly confusing systems to track. I give up!

[Stormcenter]

I SURE hope the models don't ever shift towards NOLA or even here in TX....we've had more than our statistical average quota this year with Dolly and Edouard.

Just say no to Texas or La.

[HURAKAN]

[Ivanhater]

Derek's new blog on Pensacola News Journal..

http://www.pnj.com/apps/pbcs.dll/sectio ... ersonaDest

[vbhoutex]

It is clear to me where the LLC is near 18.7/68.5. It appears to be just north of where the nhc puts it. Also You can also see that ob stations to the south have a westly wind. So it is a LLC. It is moving maybe 280 just off west.

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/cira/RAMM ... pical.html

I have to disagree with you Matt. What I see is a definite strong MLC over the island and a POSSIBLE decaying elongated NW to SE or NNW to SSE LLCC.

This is undoubtably one of the toughest systems I have ever tracked as far as what the heck it is or is going to do!!!!

[weatherguru18]

I SURE hope the models don't ever shift towards NOLA or even here in TX....we've had more than our statistical average quota this year with Dolly and Edouard.

Just say no to Texas or La.

At this time, I find it hard to believe it would make it this far west....but who knows. If I lived anywhere from Mobile to Tampa, I'd be vigilant. I'd be headed to WalMart right now. Of course I still have water from freakin' Rita! Actually I don't, but I do have other supplies from that storm that I never used. Sorry Ivanhater, we've all been there...well, most of us.

[Bocadude85]

Certainly looks south of DR to me. If you look at the Sat pic closely, it appears to have taken a wsw jog...

Its not and I have absolutely no idea what youre talking about.

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huirloop.html

I think your the one that needs to double check. Any LLC, like Derek said, is due east of the DR...and IMO moving slightly south of due west.

Look at this loop you can clearly see it moving wnw not wsw

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... is_floater

[Blown Away]

Best track at 18:00 UTC:

AL, 92, 2008081518, , BEST, 0, 186N, 686W, 30, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ,

Position is inland.

Is this the official position!!

[vbhoutex]

I SURE hope the models don't ever shift towards NOLA or even here in TX....we've had more than our statistical average quota this year with Dolly and Edouard.

Just say no to Texas or La.

I third that motion!!!!! Go FISH!!!!!

[storms in NC]

Atlantic Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
This experimental product is updated at approximately 2 AM, 8 AM, 2 PM, and 8 PM EDT
Place your mouse cursor over areas of interest for more information



ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI AUG 15 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR DATA FROM PUERTO RICO AND THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC SHOW THAT THE CENTER OF THE LOW PRESSURE AREA IS
MOVING INLAND OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THIS SYSTEM IS
GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...AND NOAA AND AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT ARE CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING IT.
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM AT ANY TIME DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO...ALTHOUGH WHEN AND WHERE A DEPRESSION MIGHT FORM IS UNCERTAIN
DUE TO INTERACTIONS WITH THE LAND MASS OF HISPANIOLA. HEAVY RAINS
AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND HAITI...AND ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER
EASTERN CUBA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO. INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS...AS WELL AS THE REMAINDER OF
CUBA...THE REMAINDER OF THE BAHAMAS...SOUTHERN FLORIDA...AND
JAMAICA...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.