ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[SunnyThoughts]

Thanks for hanging around to do the obs Dave. It really sucks that we haven't gotten any obs.

[Annie Oakley]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic ... e#contents

The 2 AM...
Thanks Dave for trying!

[ROCK]

needs to slow down...the LLC is outracing the convection....17mph in this case is to fast...

[HurricaneWarning92]

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfdl/00zgfdl2500mbHGHTPMSL054.gif

54hr exiting with whats left after Hispa....


96hr

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... MSL096.gif

984 mb? that would be about? (intensity)

[Dave]

Waiting on first set of hdobs from this mornings mission.

Do we know if they've taken off as scheduled?

No don't believe they have.

I've got a meeting at 8 am this morning, so going to have to get some sleep, no way I can skip this one. So, if recon does startup someone please pick it up. Thanks and g'night!

[ROCK]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-ir2.html

see that little arm on the left side of the convection....that is where I think the LLC is....booking west....

[WxEnthus]

I can do the images for the recon tonight, if someone can tell me had to add the right image overlay in Google Earth!

I asked Hurakan about this a few days ago -- at the top of GE under ADD there is an option for "image overlay". Paste in the url for the satellite image. Hurakan turns on the lat/long for the image (the url will have a -1 at the end) and uses that to position the image correctly in GE (turn the grid on under VIEW to align it correctly). Then Hurakan replaces that with the clear image, I'm guessing so the lines don't clutter the visual, making it easier to see the wind flags.

Hope that helps!

[bamajammer4eva]

needs to slow down...the LLC is outracing the convection....17mph in this case is to fast...

Maybe thats why the GFS weakens it so quickly. It decouples?

[ROCK]

EURO out 48hr

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP048.gif

[psyclone]

the current poor organization seems to validate the overall bearish intensity trend in the models. as rock said, it needs to slow down.

[HurricaneBrain]

I hope this isn't a coast rider in the future. That would be the worst case scenario.

[Shuriken]

needs to slow down...the LLC is outracing the convection....17mph in this case is to fast...

Maybe thats why the GFS weakens it so quickly. It decouples?

Emily reminds me of a lot of weak East-Carr systems that decouple with a fast-moving LLC outpacing trailing convection.

-- They run left of the models, then consolidate in the West-Carr and threaten the Gulf.

[Cainer]

Looks like recon never got off the ground tonight as they're almost 2 hours late. Ill stick around for another 15 minutes or so to see if they take off, but if not, bedtime!

In other news, convection is starting to build westward, but at a slower pace than the circulation. If Emily keeps up this speed, she's going to completely decouple from the convection, which would be good news for DR/Haiti at least.

[BigA]

I'm not saying Emily won't outrun the convection, but the storm is moving at 17 mph, which is brisk, but not racing. Some storms enter the eastern Caribbean moving at 20+ mph, and 25 isn't unheard of. I'll say that at the moment the storm looks pretty good, with a small burst over what I believe is the center. We'll see at sunrise, though.

[weatherSnoop]

EURO out 48hr

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP048.gif

Did Euro go the way of Recon?

[Cainer]

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... _loop.html

The Euro destroys it over Hispaniola, taking a weak signature just east of Florida and out to sea.

[Zampanò]

My eyes may be deceiving me (as they are prone to do with these developing systems, especially at night), but it looks to me as if the center may have started to reform roughly one degree to the east and one-half degree to the south of the NHC's given position, near the deepest convection. Of course, if this is the case, then we're about to see fairly rapid strengthening.

I've been wrong before, though. I fully expected a hurricane by now.

The real question is what happened to our recon flight. If it had taken off on schedule this wouldn't be a mystery.

[SeminoleWind]

My eyes may be deceiving me (as they are prone to do with these developing systems, especially at night), but it looks to me as if the center may have started to reform roughly one degree to the east and one-half degree to the south of the NHC's given position, near the deepest convection. Of course, if this is the case, then we're about to see fairly rapid strengthening.

I've been wrong before, though. I fully expected a hurricane by now.

yeah i said that earlier it looked south oh NHC plot.But it is hard to tell at night with all those colors popping out at you on satellite.

[Sanibel]

Real blow-up! This thing is really starting to take shape. Looks like the basin is now supporting development! The models are going to become the most important thing soon. Can't wait for visible satellite tomorrow.

[WxEnthus]

The real question is what happened to our recon flight. If it had taken off on schedule this wouldn't be a mystery.

Definitely, I'm really curious about what's happened. If a flight is canceled is this announced somewhere?