ATL: IRMA - Models

[Aric Dunn]

yeah the due west turn for a extended period of time from the UKMET is likely a indicator of what the EURO might do on this run... its also right in line with many of the GFS members in the florida straights

[birddogsc]

Recurves last second from SE Florida, Carolinas look out.

Carolinas definitely in play. But you have to look at the trends here, a week away from model forecasted near approach to Fl. Becoming less likely that models swing back east. Fl landfall very serious possibility now.

This run offered up the big escape route for Irma, but she wasn't there in time to catch it. I'm really interested to see what tomorrow's G-IV data brings to the models.

[sma10]

12z UKMeT shofts even more west

http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images ... /ukmet.txt


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Yes, that's alarming. Last night's run and ensembles were left of the ECMF and GFS. and this one shows a west turn in the southern Bahamas.

This is essentially 2 full degrees of latitude south of the GFS at the same period. Obviously still early days, but lets see who euro aligns with.

[SouthFLTropics]

Hooks left into the coast right at the SC/NC border

[Bocadude85]

12z canadian landfall S.Fla

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/adriansweather/status/904380426726379523

[birddogsc]

Hooks left into the coast right at the SC/NC border

Ouch... there's hasn't been a major into that area in a long, long time.

[SFLcane]

Oh boy lol...

[stormreader]

yeah the due west turn for a extended period of time from the UKMET is likely a indicator of what the EURO might do on this run...

Its perhaps a first indication of what only a couple of us have mentioned for a few days now. That would be Irma missing the trough. This trough pick-up was never written in stone. Its transitory--could vanish in a micro-second. Building ridge would push Irma significantly west. Its why the Fl Straits have been a part of my "Irma window".

[Raebie]

Welp, there goes our house in Wilmington.

[AutoPenalti]

I have a bad feeling that the next 3 runs from Euro and 6 runs from GFS will show a SE FL landfall or a Matthew-esque scrape.

[WeatherEmperor]

12z Canadian landfall in central FLA




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[Blown Away]

What wind speed at 882mb??? Anybody know??

[SouthFLTropics]

CMC...Over my house!!!

[Aric Dunn]

What wind speed at 882mb??? Anybody know??

anywhere from 155 to 200 plus with such a large system.. ? lol

[TheStormExpert]

This setup is reminding me a lot of Matthew from last year. Of course Matthew fortunately spared us here in coastal PBC but folks further up the Florida east coast and into the Carolinas weren't so lucky. This could turn out the same or be even worse for the Florida peninsula if trends continue.

[Extratropical94]

What wind speed at 882mb??? Anybody know??

Wilma had 185 mph at that pressure.

[SouthFLTropics]

What wind speed at 882mb??? Anybody know??

anywhere from 155 to 200 plus with such a large system.. ? lol

Aric, what's the wind speed at 966 on the CMC?

[AutoPenalti]

CMC...Over my house!!!

The NE quadrant would have been worse.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

What wind speed at 882mb??? Anybody know??

anywhere from 155 to 200 plus with such a large system.. ? lol

Wilma had exactly that pressure and winds measured 180 mph at that point