#4178 Postby Shell Mound » Sat Aug 31, 2019 3:32 am
At this point, a stall over the northern Bahamas and then OTS seems to be most likely. Since the start of DORIAN's life span, global models have consistently shown a series of highly progressive shortwave troughs rotating over the top of a stout but narrow shortwave ridge, with intermittent expansions and contractions of the ridging between each successive shortwave. Normally, major hurricanes that form in the MDR and hit the U.S. require a blocky (that is, wavy), stagnant pattern rather than the progressive flow are seeing. Note that, despite the emergence of cool neutral ENSO or even La Niña, there is a very strong +PMM/+PDO pattern evident in the Pacific, which correlates with a +PNA (West-Coast ridging with downstream trough axis over the Great Lakes/near the East Coast). Plus, the persistent -NAO is coming into play, given the position of mid- to upper-level features. This year is very different from 2004 in that the East-Coast trough is more persistent due to the -NAO and warm North Pacific to northward of the Equator. So I think DORIAN will most likely miss the CONUS. However, the northern Bahamas will take a devastating hit.
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