ATL: ISAIAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[otowntiger]

I'm thinking we can discount that 150kt SFMR wind...

Ya reckon?!

[Syx6sic]

I'm thinking we can discount that 150kt SFMR wind...

C5 Isaias with a naked swirl anyone?

sounds like it could happen hey it is 2020 after all. lol

[wx98]

Isaias is heading toward Bimini right now. Drawing a rough line from where it left Andros earlier would put it on a beeline for West Palm Beach, although it’s entirely possible there could be a shift to the right of that path this evening.

[GCANE]

Small popups starting to fire across lower half of FL.

[Jr0d]

Recon is showing 990.8mb. A bit lower than I expected in an open swirl. More reason to expect a significant resurgence tonight.

[Weatherboy1]

An actual bit of convection firing off near the center ... who knew? Haha

[Hurricane Mike]

Man that air must be really stable for Isaias to poop out the way he did.

[chaser1]

Latest HWRF from TropicalTidbits quite a stretch of the imagination!

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hwrf&region=09L&pkg=satIR&runtime=2020080112&fh=12

Either the HWRP is on crack LMAO, or this is about to get epic real. I'm putting my money on crack.
(*** Disclaimer: Don't do crack. Furthermore, the Surgeon General has determined that mixing crack and tropical cyclones is dangerous and highly inadvisable)

[jonj4040]

last frame of sat loop looks like there's about to be a pop up over the llc. we'll see

[Meteophile]

I'm thinking we can discount that 150kt SFMR wind...

I didn't know SFMR could also have keyboard problems

[DestinHurricane]

Isaias is heading toward Bimini right now. Drawing a rough line from where it left Andros earlier would put it on a beeline for West Palm Beach, although it’s entirely possible there could be a shift to the right of that path this evening.

NHC actually is forecasting a slight left turn once north of bimini. I don't know if that still stands being as far west as it is compared to NHC track.

[chris_fit]

I'm thinking we can discount that 150kt SFMR wind...

C5 Isaias with a naked swirl anyone?

It's 2020 - expected

[WxEp]

It actually appears to me that the shear has begun to reduce slightly in Isaias' vicinity/near term future path. Also, if you look at the past several 3 hour increments, it appears the anticyclone to the south of the system may be making its way toward a more favorable location for Isaias. Whether or not that is enough to make a difference at this point remains to be seen.

Would like to make a GIF of the last several 3 hour increments but don't have the ability to do so right now. Here is the source of what I'm looking at: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

[Evil Jeremy]

Hot tower north of the CoC.
However not very close.
Need to see more close in to rebuild an eyewall.
Hot towers are key in keeping this alive.

I'm keeping an eye on this burst. It's been slowly building for roughly 60 minutes now.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... product=ir

[Nimbus]

Only 1 tenth of one percent reporting power outage in Broward county thus far so those squall lines are probably 40 mph max winds. It doesn't seem to be that far off track and if the core stays even just offshore it will likely redevelop once the shear lets up. Could blow some nasty squalls up with tornado's when the core gets closer to the coast but I think Florida lucked out.

[GCANE]

Just as I thought.
CIMSS showing a rearrangement of the upper troposphere.
Anti-cyclone quickly moving in.

[Ian2401]

getting very gusty at my home about 10 miles inland from WPB, probably gusting upwards of 45-50mph in these squalls.

def a completely diff world then the morning here lol

[chaser1]

isaias is reminding us that it's only late july/early august right now.

1 month later on this path and it is likely at least a cat 2/3

Statement of the day lol! Happy August 1st everyone! We're nearing the beginning of the meat of Hurricane Season. This other stuff thus far, just pre-season games. Coronavirus or not, First string offense will soon walk on the field.

[wx98]

Isaias is heading toward Bimini right now. Drawing a rough line from where it left Andros earlier would put it on a beeline for West Palm Beach, although it’s entirely possible there could be a shift to the right of that path this evening.

NHC actually is forecasting a slight left turn once north of bimini. I don't know if that still stands being as far west as it is compared to NHC track.

Should have said right OR left.

[GCANE]

Hot tower north of the CoC.
However not very close.
Need to see more close in to rebuild an eyewall.
Hot towers are key in keeping this alive.

I'm keeping an eye on this burst. It's been slowly building for 90 minutes now.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... product=ir

That new infeed from Cuba is doing the trick