ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[Sean in New Orleans]

The reason New Orleans entered this thread is because of this (Trust--I would love to be talking about another city):

[ConvergenceZone]

Gustav is very close to his final deathblow.....

He definitely needs to do something soon --- shear, dry air, and the mountainous terrain may prove just too much for him.

I expect an interesting NHC discussion at 11pm EST

Let's pretend this was never a hurricane but a surface low with convection firing near the center and red circle on the tropical outlook page. With environmental conditions expected to improve we would be talking about a likely TD by tomorrow.

We shouldn't focus on what Gustav was, it's not really pertinent to the danger this system might pose in the future.

edit:

I don't want to talk about New Orleans in every thread, enough please!

actually, that's not a bad philosophy....

[cycloneye]

Hello,Hello! Attention Please! Lets not use this thread as a chat session about New Orleans as the theme of this thread is to discuss all about Gustav and not about New Orleans.Thank you.

[CrazyC83]

Based on that radar it appears to be moving west-southwestward at near 250 degree's. Also I will not declare it dead intil wxman57 posts his McCoy pick saying it is so.

It is definitely moving WSW, and might either make landfall in Jamaica or even slip beneath it.

[caribepr]

The ONLY drawback to Gustav's "fizzing out"..the news media and the inevitable next time..
How many people will listen next time??..Chicken little comes to mind..

Well, we'll have to see, but, if the mountains of Haiti have killed this system, we need to seriously analyze what these things do to the general public.

I don't think the psychology of this is too difficult to understand or in need of being deeply analyzed. After Andrew, many people from S. Fla moved to Orlando, where I was living at the time. It didn't take the threat of a Gustav to have adults and children in tears of fear; a thunderstorm could do the same, for years afterward. Tragedy is like that.
If a positive side effect is that people react in a way to help ensure their own safety, that is a good out of a bad. This isn't just a NO or ALL of the rest of the Gulf Coast (or the rest of FL, NC, the islands, etc) state of mind, it's everyone who has ever lost the centrality of their lives in a hurricane, and the family and friends affected, who reacts this way. There is no higher claim on loss based on geography. Chicken Little is the response of those who haven't been there...at least that's what I think.

[Sean in New Orleans]

so is this a false and untrue article? http://www.weathernet5.com/weather/17275838/detail.html wow! dont worry im not embarrased in the least. ya know you can get info after info regarding this matter but the simple fact is that i truly believe always better safe than sorry.

My bad...you read that article. I won't open up this thread to that article. I understand now. There's a story behind that. Back to the system. My apologies, you are entitled to your opinion since you read that article.

[ALhurricane]

Looks like Gustav is coming back.

Yeah we are seeing mixed signals. Looks like a partial eyewall but not much else.

Actually after the beating it took over Haiti, the radar representation isn't half bad. Certainly sets the stage for Mr. Gustav to make a come back, but it will probably take some time. Too much guesswork going on around here.

[cycloneye]

Hello,Hello! Attention Please! Lets not use this thread as a chat session about New Orleans as the theme of this thread is to discuss all about Gustav and not about New Orleans.Thank you.

[hcane27]

Looks as though the official forecast has moved a tad west ....

[Sean in New Orleans]

Hello,Hello! Attention Please! Lets not use this thread as a chat session about New Orleans as the theme of this thread is to discuss all about Gustav and not about New Orleans.Thank you.

I'm very cool with that. Where is it headed?

[CrazyC83]

Looks like Gustav is coming back.

Yeah we are seeing mixed signals. Looks like a partial eyewall but not much else.

Actually after the beating it took over Haiti, the radar representation isn't half bad. Certainly sets the stage for Mr. Gustav to make a come back, but it will probably take some time. Too much guesswork going on around here.

It took less than an hour for it to develop half of an eyewall...

[Ivanhater]

Looks as though the official forecast has moved a tad west ....

?? It hasnt moved an inch

[Sanibel]

See the High finally grabbed Gus.

What is being missed here is 95L which is currently undergoing formation. If this develops and tracks close enough to Gus and its gravity it could keep Gus' intensity down. Right now Gus could wreck up on Jamaica.

[crazycajuncane]

Okay I am going to chime in on the topic.

I am not big for hype with a storm that is 5-6 days out and the NHC does not even know where the storm is going to go. I've seen this mentioned several times. "After 3-5 days there is a lot of uncertainty with the track of said storm"

Now it's one thing to be ready and prepared, but the media loves to create the doomsday scenario. It'll always be a Houston or New Orleans POSSIBLE hit. Yeah no joke, but what about every other city in Louisiana, Texas and Mississippi? The media is playing up Katrina. We all want facts.

The levees may or may not be in danger. The storm may or may not be a Cat 3. Think about this... too many false cries are going to create a false sense of security. Let's scare people three and four times over the next couple of years 6-7 days away. Storm goes in the opposite direction and all of the sudden people become complacent again.

Facts are the best. Why didn't they mention the possibility of the mountains tearing up this storm? Of course that does no good for ratings. You got people who are struggling to make a comeback that have to make tough financial and mental decisions. People in SOUTHERN Louisiana... not just New Orleans are concerned. No hype needed. All we need is guidance and facts. We will take care of the rest. See the amazing stories of Hurricane Rita.

[cycloneye]

Hello,Hello! Attention Please! Lets not use this thread as a chat session about New Orleans as the theme of this thread is to discuss all about Gustav and not about New Orleans.Thank you.

[cpdaman]

great radar view to the poster

"as of this minute" i see it strengthening and heading toward jamaica (land of mountains)

the radar does show pretty well how tiny and easy it is for this thing to wrap back up again

this is something i think people always underestimate with tiny storms


SEAN it is headed WSW toward jamaica

[6SpeedTA95]

This storm looks absolutely terrible right now AND its forward motion has slowed to 3 mph.

[Sean in New Orleans]

It looks like it may skirt Jamaica.

[LSU2001]

That little convective burst near the center (off tip of Haitii) sure is growing at quite a rapid clip. Some whites starting to show and its growing to the south of center as well. I think we may well be seeing the start of an organization/strengthening cycle

[tolakram]

Interesting loop.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 170315.GIF

Twin peaks