ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[LowndesCoFire]

In the shorter term as it is crossing over into the GOM? Yes...in the longer term? No. I think this thing is going to skirt approximately half of the western FL peninsula coastline and then the ridge is going to strengthen to the north of this thing and push it west to west-northwest from there...most likely landfall point? Probably somewhere between Gulf Shores, AL and Pascagula MS at between 72 and 84 hours from now...probably as a strong category 3 or a weak category 4...this would put Tampa Bay, Mobile Bay, and New Orleans under 20 feet or more of water...

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Dont see a Cat 3-4 traversing WNW from Tampa to MS..IMO

[fci]

Isaac brings back memories of Ernesto from 6 years ago.
Talk of RI possibly to Cat 2 when past Cuba over warm eSters of The Straits
We nicknamed him "The Leaf Blower" for the effect his winds had.
Not to say Isaac will wimp out like Ernesto but it just reminds me of 6 years ago.

[OzCycloneChaserTrav]

There is no reason why it couldn't become a significant hurricane in the gulf. As long as it doesn't skirt along the western florida coastline all the way to landfall, then Isaac will have nearly two days in open water with perfect intensifying conditions.

[pricetag56]

20 or more feet of water shouldnt people be taking this more seriously then?

[ColdFusion]

In the shorter term as it is crossing over into the GOM? Yes...in the longer term? No. I think this thing is going to skirt approximately half of the western FL peninsula coastline and then the ridge is going to strengthen to the north of this thing and push it west to west-northwest from there...most likely landfall point? Probably somewhere between Gulf Shores, AL and Pascagula MS at between 72 and 84 hours from now...probably as a strong category 3 or a weak category 4...this would put Tampa Bay, Mobile Bay, and New Orleans under 20 feet or more of water...

WHOA! Hold on. A strike in that zone does not mean NOLA goes underwater at all.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

The NHC is being very conservative with their forecast, especially with the global models predicting a much stronger storm. The seven year lack of major hurricane landfalls on the USA looks to end this week.

"IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE
FORECASTING A VERY FAVORABLE PATTERN OF UPPER-LEVEL WINDS OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO BY 72 HR. SHOULD THIS VERIFY AND SHOULD
ISAAC ESTABLISH AN INNER CORE...THE CYCLONE COULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY
STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST."

['CaneFreak]

With a constant fetch of 130 to 140 mph for 48 hours from the east on the north side of the circulation ? OK...

In the shorter term as it is crossing over into the GOM? Yes...in the longer term? No. I think this thing is going to skirt approximately half of the western FL peninsula coastline and then the ridge is going to strengthen to the north of this thing and push it west to west-northwest from there...most likely landfall point? Probably somewhere between Gulf Shores, AL and Pascagula MS at between 72 and 84 hours from now...probably as a strong category 3 or a weak category 4...this would put Tampa Bay, Mobile Bay, and New Orleans under 20 feet or more of water...

WHOA! Hold on. A strike in that zone you are referring to does not place NOLA under a 20 foot water risk.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Portastorm]

20 or more feet of water shouldnt people be taking this more seriously then?

Please keep in mind that the forecast in question is from an amateur and not the NHC or a professional meteorological organization.

[Tampa_God]

I'm kind of feeling that the NHC is being very cautious with the intensity. Cuba did nothing to weaken this storm besides take away convection, pressure was found to be decreasing on the last fly-in, and the track brings it over the same waters that brought Charley from 110 mph to 150 mph before landfall. Water temps are around the same as then and there is nothing that has the potential to weaken the system now except if it moves over S. FL.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Hurricane Alexis]

Why is one side of a hurricane full of severe weather and the other is not?

[sunnyday]

I see that the cone is totally gone in SE Fl yet they are still under ts warnings/watches. Should those not be removed, esp. the warnings?

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Why is one side of a hurricane full of severe weather and the other is not?

Stronger wind shear.

[rainstorm]

NHC is just playing it safe. if isaac does gain an inner core they can up the forecast.

[Hurricane Alexis]

I see that the cone is totally gone in SE Fl yet they are still under ts warnings/watches. Should those not be removed, esp. the warnings?

No because Isaac's windfield is about 200 miles so all of south florida will experience TS conditions.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

I see that the cone is totally gone in SE Fl yet they are still under ts warnings/watches. Should those not be removed, esp. the warnings?

No. Isaac is a very large storm, and tropical storm force winds extend out 205 miles. Southeast Florida will get tropical storm conditions.

[HurricaneFrances04]

I see that the cone is totally gone in SE Fl yet they are still under ts warnings/watches. Should those not be removed, esp. the warnings?

Cone is where the center of the storm is expected to go. We're talking a 200+ mile diameter storm, not a little fishing boat, so no the warnings stay up.

[jimboeh]

Looks like Isaac is getting ready roll...

[LowndesCoFire]

I see that the cone is totally gone in SE Fl yet they are still under ts warnings/watches. Should those not be removed, esp. the warnings?

No. Isaac is a very large storm, and tropical storm force winds extend out 205 miles. Southeast Florida will get tropical storm conditions.

Honest question...the 205 miles is that in one direction (radius) or the whole diameter of the storm?

[deltadog03]

Per VDM, it looks like Isaac is offshore....Or atleast darn near close...

[Camille(CaneOnAPill)]

Isaac is starting to get some narrow strip convective bands pulling in towards the coc I see on the visible imagery loop. Center seems to be much more clear as well.