Texas Winter 2016-2017

[Ntxw]

PNA has been positive since about mid month (start of the much above normal anomalies) and through early Feb looks like it will remain so. Aided by the +EPO has been a torch with DFW nearly +5F to date mostly from this mid month period. As long as the PNA remains positive Florida and the east coast is more likely to be the focus for cold air, Texas being the back edge (or warm if the ridge nudges east from the west). I was not expecting the PNA to remain positive for this long being the Nina background state, that's really been a problem since mid Jan.

Looking at this chart the PNA has been a signal for warm periods this winter. November, late December, and middle to late January were much above normal. The two cold periods, early to mid December and early January coincided with the -PNA



AO remains positive, leaning positive but guidance has been volatile in it's forecast shown by the big spread

[Portastorm]

I'm not giving up on winter yet but I am resigning myself to the fact that if nothing happens in my part of Texas, I won't be surprised. Since I'm all about lists these days, here are my thoughts:

1. I'm wondering if the Austin area climate is changing/has changed whereas we're now like Central Florida. Winter precipitation is a thing of the past and outside of a few sharp cold spells, the season averages above normal.

2. I did go back and researched roughly the last 20 winters for Austin. There's no doubt the trend is less and less winter events and the current snow drought of six years is unprecedented in that time. Whether we are going back to "normal" or this is a new normal is up for debate.

3. I'm still stunned by the dramatic reversal of the models a few days ago. EVERYTHING looked on cue for a 2nd week of February bonanza. Makes me wonder what changed. What made the models do the 180?

4. Wxman57 is it time for me to start a Texas Spring 2017 thread?

[Ntxw]

1050mb+ today in the west. 0C 850s into the GOM but surface temps are about seasonal. Air is from Pacific rather than arctic. EPO is positive, but less positive than the past week.

[Tireman4]

Sigh. Just sigh. I can live with highs on the 50s and lows in the 40s ..but darn it. Winter. ..come bsck

Heck, that IS winter! By the way, the Houston/Galveston hurricane workshop is set for Saturday June 3rd at GRB. We should get a group together for lunch across the street again.

I am ok with that this year. I will move my volunteer duties to the afternoon....later...

[bubba hotep]

Pretty good agreement b/w the afternoon ensembles and it is down right ugly in the longer range

[Ntxw]

Pretty good agreement b/w the afternoon ensembles and it is down right ugly in the longer range

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... hem_12.png

Looks pretty good east of the Mississippi. Pretty Meh PNA. Wonder if the +PDO PNA takeover with the dying Nina being the nail in the coffin?

[bubba hotep]

Pretty good agreement b/w the afternoon ensembles and it is down right ugly in the longer range

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... hem_12.png

Looks pretty good east of the Mississippi. Pretty Meh PNA. Wonder if the +PDO PNA takeover with the dying Nina being the nail in the coffin?

It is probably the +PDO/+QBO combo that is dominating now. In fact, the whole "wet California" is more Nino looking but is also common during a +PDO/+QBO setup. It is a pretty big outlier to see +PDO/+QBO during -ENSO, esp. with as strong as the +QBO was in Nov and Dec. There just are not enough analogs in the dataset but just spit balling, the +PDO/+QBO setup might result in a spring that looks a lot more +ENSO than what we would expect coming out of -ENSO.

[bubba hotep]

06z GFS has DFW pushing 90 by the end of the run...

[Yukon Cornelius]

90?! At what point do actually announce "winter cancel", and move along to spring.

[orangeblood]

06z GFS has DFW pushing 90 by the end of the run...

For DFW, with only 11 freezes so far through 2/3rds of the winter season and none forecasted over the next 2 weeks....we could flirt with the record low freeze season of 14 set back in 2011-12. Another extremely disappointing winter season taking shape once again

[bubba hotep]

06z GFS has DFW pushing 90 by the end of the run...

For DFW, with only 11 freezes so far through 2/3rds of the winter season and none forecasted over the next 2 weeks....we could flirt with the record low freeze season of 14 set back in 2011-12. Another extremely disappointing winter season taking shape once again

If the Pacific is truly starting the transition to +ENSO then the MJO should stay active. A Phase 1 - 3 pass in late Feb or early March could give N. Texas one last chance at some winter weather but climo really starts working against us at that point.

[Ntxw]

12z GFS is ugly long range. Alaskan trough and +PNA ridge pumping warmth. I'm ready to concede winter

Its a good thing DFW has a burst of snow andd cold early Jan otherwise this wouldve been back to back god awful winters

[Portastorm]

12z GFS is ugly long range. Alaskan trough and +PNA ridge pumping warmth. I'm ready to concede winter

Its a good thing DFW has a burst of snow andd cold early Jan otherwise this wouldve been back to back god awful winters

For the rest of us this will make back-to-back god awful winters. I can easily say the worst extended period in my 33 years in Austin. Profoundly disappointing.

[hriverajr]

Portastorm... perhaps this is the new normal for us. For my area was basically 4 days of what you would call real winter.

[srainhoutx]

12z GFS is ugly long range. Alaskan trough and +PNA ridge pumping warmth. I'm ready to concede winter

Its a good thing DFW has a burst of snow andd cold early Jan otherwise this wouldve been back to back god awful winters

For the rest of us this will make back-to-back god awful winters. I can easily say the worst extended period in my 33 years in Austin. Profoundly disappointing.

Spend the day yesterday cleaning up the front beds from the Hard Freeze a couple of weeks ago and the High Wind event of last Sunday. Frankly we never were suppose to have much of a Winter this year across Texas and certainly not the amount of rainfall that January delivered. I had sleet on two occasions and 18F during the Hard Freeze. That said the pool is all cleaned up and ready for the water temperature to climb above 80F. Also I am looking forward to seeing old friends and weather colleagues in South Padre Island in early April at the 2017 National Tropical Weather Conference. Hopefully the water temperature will be warm enough to dip more than my toes in this year...

[Brent]

06z GFS has DFW pushing 90 by the end of the run...

For DFW, with only 11 freezes so far through 2/3rds of the winter season and none forecasted over the next 2 weeks....we could flirt with the record low freeze season of 14 set back in 2011-12. Another extremely disappointing winter season taking shape once again

remember the 1983/1989 analogs?



I no longer see the point of long range forecasts or analogs, unless they are warm that is.

[Ntxw]

I see a spring followed summer 2011 analog

[TheProfessor]

Wow I've been shown amazing weather tool, maybe you guys have already seen it but this is my first time seeing it for the GEFS http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/cguast ... lumes.html it's like the SREF Plumes but for the GEFS.

[TheProfessor]

I see a spring followed summer 2011 analog

Well let's hope we don't have a repeat of 2011 spring tornado season. Although I might be storm chasing in Oklahoma this spring and in 2011 they saw an EF-5 and a couple of EF-4s so that would be cool to see out in the open away from cities.

[Ntxw]

I see a spring followed summer 2011 analog

Well let's hope we don't have a repeat of 2011 spring tornado season. Although I might be storm chasing in Oklahoma this spring and in 2011 they saw an EF-5 and a couple of EF-4s so that would be cool to see out in the open away from cities.

Cold Northwest, warm south and east usually spells big tornado season. Gulf is warm and 2017 has already started out deadlier than all of 2016