WPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION PARMA (19W)

[HURAKAN]

Weakening

[ozonepete]

Yeah it's pretty much over, providing it doesn't unleash any more of its phenomenal rains. And although decaying tropical storms are famous for some of the worst tropical region flooding in history, it doesn't appear that VietNam will have to worry with this one - too much dry air entraining from the west. Anyway, this is definitely one for the books, and the saddest but most interesting aspect is that it probably never would have lasted this long or caused that second round of flooding in the Philippines if it hadn't undergone fujiwhara effect with MELOR. A very unusual and interesting development in this 2009 season.

[ozonepete]

Also, I just found this incredible MODIS image from 0555Z this morning. Just look at the structure. A little hard to believe this didn't make typhoon one more time. But even harder to believe that it intensified so much again in that little area between Hainan and Viet Nam (Gulf of Tonkin).

[cycloneye]

WTPN33 PGTW 140300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 19W (PARMA) WARNING NR 066
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
140000Z --- NEAR 20.5N 107.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.5N 107.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 20.7N 106.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 20.9N 105.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
140300Z POSITION NEAR 20.6N 107.1E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 19W (PARMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 80 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF HANOI, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 03
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
140000Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 140900Z, 141500Z AND 142100Z.
//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

ozonepete, incredible picture. Hard to say it wasn't a typhoon at that point

[HURAKAN]

Another good pic

[P.K.]

Down to a TD meaning it didn't drop below TS status for 15 days 6 hours.

WTPQ21 RJTD 140600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD DOWNGRADED FROM TS 0917 PARMA (0917)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 140600UTC 20N 107E
MOVE SW SLOWLY
PRES 1010HPA =

[HURAKAN]

Bye

[HURAKAN]

14/1430 UTC 20.8N 106.5E OVERLAND PARMA -- West Pacific

And there is no return!

[HURAKAN]

WTPN33 PGTW 141500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 19W (PARMA) WARNING NR 068
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
141200Z --- NEAR 20.7N 106.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
REPEAT POSIT: 20.7N 106.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 21.0N 106.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 21.0N 105.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 010 KT, GUSTS 020 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
141500Z POSITION NEAR 20.8N 106.5E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 19W (PARMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 45 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF HANOI, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. PARMA IS OVER LAND AND AS IS RAPIDLY
DECAYING AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. NO DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS. THIS IS
THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
(NAVMARFCSTCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS
OF REGENERATION. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22W (TWENTYTWO)
WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

[Derek Ortt]

if it can hold together, it can emerge into the Bay of Bengal for round 4

[Cookie]

if it can hold together, it can emerge into the Bay of Bengal for round 4

sorry if im slow, but are you being serious or funny?

[Derek Ortt]

if the circ does not totally dissipate, it could move into the BOB. A few systems have done that

[Cookie]

that certainly would be something especially after what this system has already done.

[somethingfunny]

At this point I'm expecting Parma to pull a Goni (earlier this year):

[ozonepete]

if the circ does not totally dissipate, it could move into the BOB. A few systems have done that

Yes, I've seen some cases of ex-typhoons doing that. Although in this case it appears it's too late. It's just a little too far north and is already being caught up in the westerlies. They have to move west below 12 degrees North or so to avoid the very high mountains of northern Viet Nam, Thailand and Myanmar.

[equinox]

Tropical Storm Parma is now the costliest typhoon ever in the Philippines with damages up to $19B...

Typhoon Fengshen is on second with $13B...

Tropical Storm Ketsana is now on third with $11B...

Super Typhoon Mike (1990), the costliest typhoon for a long time is on 4th with around $10B followed by the strongest typhoon in the Philippines "Angela" with around $10B too...

[HURAKAN]

Thanks equinox for that info and welcome to S2K!