ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE - MODELS

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HouTXmetro
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Re: ATL : INVEST 97L - MODELS

#421 Postby HouTXmetro » Wed Jul 21, 2010 10:50 am

KFDM Meteorologist wrote:12Z Nam has very little, weak reflection in SW LA.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_084l.gif


How does that compare to the previous run of the NAM?
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Re: ATL : INVEST 97L - MODELS

#422 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jul 21, 2010 10:50 am

The Gulfstream jet will fly this afternoon and that should provide valuable imput to the models at the 00z package.
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Re: ATL : INVEST 97L - MODELS

#423 Postby KFDM Meteorologist » Wed Jul 21, 2010 10:51 am

HouTXmetro wrote:
KFDM Meteorologist wrote:12Z Nam has very little, weak reflection in SW LA.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_084l.gif


How does that compare to the previous run of the NAM?
Tad farther west.
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#424 Postby rockyman » Wed Jul 21, 2010 10:59 am

CMC Regional at 48 hours:
Image

GFS Para at 48 hours:
Image
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Re: ATL : INVEST 97L - MODELS

#425 Postby Bocadude85 » Wed Jul 21, 2010 11:02 am

Looks like the models are backing off on development
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#426 Postby KFDM Meteorologist » Wed Jul 21, 2010 11:04 am

12Z OPER GFS farther West.
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#427 Postby rockyman » Wed Jul 21, 2010 11:04 am

Looks like the GFS Para loses it in the east central Gomex
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#428 Postby HouTXmetro » Wed Jul 21, 2010 11:05 am

Where is it? I see nothing on the GFS model run.
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Re: ATL : INVEST 97L - MODELS

#429 Postby HURRICANELONNY » Wed Jul 21, 2010 11:09 am

With no beginning point there can be no ending point. The models are useless without a point. :roll:
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#430 Postby KFDM Meteorologist » Wed Jul 21, 2010 11:09 am

HouTXmetro wrote:Where is it? I see nothing on the GFS model run.
Weak reflection S. Of New Orleans.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_096l.gif
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Re: ATL : INVEST 97L - MODELS

#431 Postby fci » Wed Jul 21, 2010 11:26 am

cycloneye wrote:The Gulfstream jet will fly this afternoon and that should provide valuable imput to the models at the 00z package.


I thought recon was cancelled for today.
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Re: ATL : INVEST 97L - MODELS

#432 Postby Wx_Warrior » Wed Jul 21, 2010 11:28 am

Models ARE NOT useless at this point.... :roll:
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Re: ATL : INVEST 97L - MODELS

#433 Postby southerngale » Wed Jul 21, 2010 11:28 am

fci wrote:
cycloneye wrote:The Gulfstream jet will fly this afternoon and that should provide valuable imput to the models at the 00z package.


I thought recon was cancelled for today.


It was, but the GIV mission will still fly.
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Re: ATL : INVEST 97L - MODELS

#434 Postby Ivanhater » Wed Jul 21, 2010 11:41 am

Image
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Re: ATL : INVEST 97L - MODELS

#435 Postby hurricanefloyd5 » Wed Jul 21, 2010 11:48 am

is it me or did all the models shift a bit farther north first most models going over the keys but now all models over at lease mainland Florida now!!!!!!!!!
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Re: ATL : INVEST 97L - MODELS

#436 Postby poof121 » Wed Jul 21, 2010 11:48 am

Looking at the BAMs seems to indicate practically no shear in the eastern gulf, which is bad...
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Re: ATL : INVEST 97L - MODELS

#437 Postby fci » Wed Jul 21, 2010 11:59 am

poof121 wrote:Looking at the BAMs seems to indicate practically no shear in the eastern gulf, which is bad...


If models are correct and it crosses mainland Florida; it may not be in the Eastern Gulf for very long
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#438 Postby rockyman » Wed Jul 21, 2010 12:00 pm

12Z CMC 48 hours:

Image

Shifted south from 12 hours ago (was South Florida, now it's the Keys)
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Re: ATL : INVEST 97L - MODELS

#439 Postby lebron23 » Wed Jul 21, 2010 12:02 pm

I expect models to start swinging south and west when they find the LLC. IMO.
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#440 Postby rockyman » Wed Jul 21, 2010 12:07 pm

12z CMC through 84 hours (weakens it, then strengthens it a little):
Image
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