ATL: Ex-Hurricane DANIELLE - Discussion

[amawea]

poopcorn convection showing up around the center of circulation and it doesn't look like it will be long before the convection raps around the whole center.

Man, that is one impressive wave coming off of Africa.

[Vortex]

Wrong threat but WOW that is some wave moving off Africa...

[cycloneye]

[Florida1118]

I would just like to note That Frances and TD#6 are quite similar. Not only were are they both the 6th TD, they formed within days of each other, both are on nearly the same latitude, and close on longitude. Also look at the early Forecast tracks.
TD#6-
Frances-[IMG=http://img828.imageshack.us/img828/8519/02al0604w5.th.gif][/IMG]

Im on the Recurve train as well now, but lets not let that guard down just yet...

[BrianD]

I don't know why but for some reason something keeps tellin me this is going to wanna visit the beach near OBX

[cycloneye]

In case anyone noticed,is still a TD but the winds increased from 25kts to 30kts.

[dixiebreeze]

NRL:

WTNT01 KNGU 212101
SUBJ: TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX (06L) WARNING NR 001
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX (06L) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN ATLANTIC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
211800Z --- NEAR 10.8N 31.8W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 10.8N 31.8W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 11.5N 33.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 12.6N 35.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 13.6N 38.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 14.4N 41.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 17.5N 47.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 21.0N 52.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 24.5N 55.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
212100Z POSITION NEAR 11.0N 32.1W OR APPROX 504NM WSW OF CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS. THERE ARE NO 12FT SEAS.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 220301Z, 220901Z, 221501Z AND 222101Z.//
BT

[Ivanhater]

This from the latest NHC DISCO

THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...OR...290/7. THE DEEP
TRADES ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE
DEPRESSION NOW APPEAR TO BE THE MORE DOMINANT STEERING
MECHANISM...WITH LESS OF AN INFLUENCE FROM THE SOUTHWESTERLY
MONSOONAL FLOW. DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
RIDGE STEERING THE CYCLONE IN A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH
DAY 3. AFTERWARD...A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS INDICATED IN THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST AS A DEEP-LAYER MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVES OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND BREAKS DOWN THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY...AND IS BASED ON THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.


Let's hope they don't keep slowing it down..that gives it time to get under the ridge in the long term.

[blp]

I would just like to note That Frances and TD#6 are quite similar. Not only were are they both the 6th TD, they formed within days of each other, both are on nearly the same latitude, and close on longitude. Also look at the early Forecast tracks.
TD#6-
Frances-[IMG=http://img828.imageshack.us/img828/8519/02al0604w5.th.gif][/IMG]

Im on the Recurve train as well now, but lets not let that guard down just yet...

Thanks for posting that comparison. You can notice notice that the Frances cone looked more like a recurve at that stage than our current cone which kind points to more of NW heading at end versus the NNW heading on Francis.

[gatorcane]

Ridge noted by NWS Miami in the long-range snippet:

EXTENDED...TUE THROUGH FRI...ATLC RIDGE BUILDS OVER S FLA WITH A
DEEP SE WIND FLOW DEVELOPING. AFTERNOON/EVENING POPS INTERIOR
AND W WITH LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING POPS E COAST. POPS BECOMING
NEAR NORMS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

[Aric Dunn]

We should see a TS by 11am ...at least as things are going now..

[boca]

Ridge noted by NWS Miami in the long-range snippet:

EXTENDED...TUE THROUGH FRI...ATLC RIDGE BUILDS OVER S FLA WITH A
DEEP SE WIND FLOW DEVELOPING. AFTERNOON/EVENING POPS INTERIOR
AND W WITH LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING POPS E COAST. POPS BECOMING
NEAR NORMS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

The ridge will build west over Florida but isn't their a break between our high pressure in the Western Atlantic and the azores high which would allow a recurve of TD6

[Ivanhater]

Still has some work to do on the northern and eastern quadrant.

[cycloneye]

Here is the RGB loop.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-rgb.html

[ConvergenceZone]

what does the term "POPS" mean? I hear that term mentioned quite a bit on NWS discussions. What does it stand for?

[cycloneye]

what does the term "POPS" mean? I hear that term mentioned quite a bit on NWS discussions. What does it stand for?

Probability of Precipitation.

[ConvergenceZone]

what does the term "POPS" mean? I hear that term mentioned quite a bit on NWS discussions. What does it stand for?

Probability of Precipitation.

Thanks Luis...That makes sense...

[ROCK]

[quote="Ivanhater"]Still has some work to do on the northern and eastern quadrant.

it has a lot of work to do, IMO....the subsidence on the northern and east periphery is still a factor.

[HURAKAN]

latest

[mvtrucking]

J- Just a guess.