ATL: FIONA - Models

[ColinDelia]

102 hours. Over PR but very weak.

[ColinDelia]

108 hours

[ColinDelia]

114 hours

[ColinDelia]

144 hours


150 hours

[ColinDelia]

168 hours


174 hours

[Bad_Hurricane]

144 hours


150 hours

Put links in post, dud!

[ColinDelia]

Put links in post, dud!

I thought images were ok in the models thread. No?

[ColinDelia]

Over Bermuda but VERY weak

[jlauderdal]

Put links in post, dud!

I thought images were ok in the models thread. No?

its fine, threads are loaded with images and CAPS and colored fonts

[superfly]

That run is bunk again, it doesn't even really develop 97L.

[Vortmax1]

There's that sick feeling in my stomach again.

[jlauderdal]

That run is bunk again, it doesn't even really develop 97L.

seems bunky but we have seen models predict weak development before and be right so lets see what transpires

[gatorcane]

The ecmwf looks like it brings a major hurricane just a little south of where Frances and Jeanne made landfall in 2004.

Glad that run is 216 hours out

[ronjon]

Well the trend at least is in the right direction now for GFS. It keeps a separate low, albeit weak, that doesn't get absorbed into Earl. It still is having problems with intensity and the synoptics but it may come closer to the ECM/CMC in the coming days.

[gatorcane]

Hope the ecmwf is wrong but fully expect it to shift around the next few days

[Vortmax1]

Glad that run is 216 hours out

So am I!
There's still those haunting thoughts about how accurate the ECMWF can be at times.
Galveston and Ike comes to my mind immediately.

[cycloneye]

12z Tropical Models

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 291256
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1256 UTC SUN AUG 29 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL972010) 20100829 1200 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100829  1200   100830  0000   100830  1200   100831  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    13.7N  36.3W   14.5N  39.8W   15.2N  44.0W   16.0N  48.7W
BAMD    13.7N  36.3W   13.8N  39.7W   14.1N  43.4W   14.5N  47.2W
BAMM    13.7N  36.3W   14.0N  39.8W   14.3N  43.9W   14.8N  48.2W
LBAR    13.7N  36.3W   13.8N  39.6W   14.0N  43.4W   14.1N  47.3W
SHIP        30KTS          37KTS          46KTS          55KTS
DSHP        30KTS          37KTS          46KTS          55KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100831  1200   100901  1200   100902  1200   100903  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    16.9N  53.5W   21.3N  61.7W   30.6N  65.8W   38.7N  61.6W
BAMD    15.1N  51.0W   16.9N  58.5W   19.5N  65.6W   21.8N  70.4W
BAMM    15.3N  52.4W   17.7N  60.1W   21.7N  66.4W   26.1N  69.6W
LBAR    14.6N  51.3W   16.1N  59.0W     .0N    .0W     .0N    .0W
SHIP        62KTS          75KTS          81KTS          81KTS
DSHP        62KTS          75KTS          81KTS          81KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  13.7N LONCUR =  36.3W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR =  18KT
LATM12 =  13.7N LONM12 =  32.7W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 =  17KT
LATM24 =  13.4N LONM24 =  29.0W
WNDCUR =   30KT RMAXWD =   50NM WNDM12 =   30KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD =  180NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM


[gatorcane]

Notice the deep bam bending left at the end (dark green model). That is a clue there is a building western Atlantic ridge it is sniffing out

The other models you see recurving it are not going to show a bend left this far out. The exception is the avn model which may not be handling the merge og Earl and 97l properly.

[Vortex]

notice on the 12Z bamd major shift west...maps not updated to reflect yet.

[blazess556]

notice on the 12Z bamd major shift west...maps not updated to reflect yet.

yep. just refreshed and you are right.