ATL: MATTHEW - Ex-Tropical Storm - Discussion

[cycloneye]

Vorticity at 850mb increasing bigtime.

[jlauderdal]

yes, but with the SST's as hot as they are, it would not take much time over water to become monstrous. Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.

takes much more than oceanic heat content to make a hurricane

[MWatkins]

Very unstable air this morning.

CAPE at 4000.

LI's around -5.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/loop-wv.html

Great fuel to fire this up.

Jeepers, look at the difference between the temp and dewpoint a 950MB, only one degree. Of course, no daytime heating yet in that sounding, but plenty-o-instability.

MW

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[abajan]

Somehow I don't think it will be quite a TD by 11 a.m. but more likely the next TWO will have it at near 100% and the upgrade will be at 5 p.m. Just a hunch.

Either way, if this tracks into the northwestern Caribbean (north of Honduras), that area has a history of very powerful hurricanes developing around this time of the year. Janet in ’55 is but one of several hurricanes that come to mind.

[KWT]

I see no reason why this won't form into a depression in the next 12-24hrs, conditions look decent and its finally moving away from SA which has probably held it back to a degree.

Lets see what recon finds!

[GCANE]

Lots of overshooting tops building a strong cirrus canopy.

[KWT]

It just has that look right now of a developing depression, its hard to say why but it just does!

[SFLcane]

This thing is heading right for central america.

[jlauderdal]

Lots of overshooting tops building a strong cirrus canopy.

hot towers boiling over, signs of the instability previously mentioned, land interaction would seem to be the only limiting factor downstream

[ronjon]

It just has that look right now of a developing depression, its hard to say why but it just does!

Well its got 1007 mb low pressure and some banding features starting to show. Just needs to close off that circulation - maybe a TD later today.

[MWatkins]

It just has that look right now of a developing depression, its hard to say why but it just does!

Well, you've got good curvature with the bands to the northeast of the low, and developing bands to the SW. I agree, this is probably a depression or really, really close.

MW

[HenkL]

Ship reports at 12Z:

British ship at 14°18'N 74°24'W: wind ESE 17kt, SLP 1006.0
Dutch ship at 12°42'N 75°30'W: wind SW 12kt, SLP 1008.3

[HURAKAN]

steering currents

[HURAKAN]

12z

AL, 95, 2010092312, , BEST, 0, 135N, 748W, 30, 1007, LO

slowing down and gaining latitude

[GCANE]

Wind-field is improving quickly

[KWT]

Sure does look like from all the information we are getting that we wil have a TD sooner rather then later doesn't it!

[HURAKAN]

RECON could confirm or deny that a TD is present by the 11 am advisory

[ronjon]

Can't wait till we get a depression and have NHC's thoughts and track forecast. I have a feeling they're earn their moneny on this one. Looking at the current steering its W-NW and then according to GFS, the ridge collapses in about 60 hours when steering weakens and turns NW.

[KWT]

Hopefully recon will sample the southern quadrant first so we can see right away whether we have a tropical depression or not.