Weak low in NE Gulf of Mexico: (Is Invest 95L)

[northjaxpro]

Looking at the satellite and radar composites, and the analysis of the WPC/ NHC 18Z surface plot, the Low pressure wave is centered very near Apalachicola.

[NCSTORMMAN]

Looking at the satellite and radar composites, and the analysis of the WPC/ NHC 18Z surface plot, the Low pressure wave is centered very near Apalachicola.

The spot to the southeast of Louisiana is really starting to fire up. Some of the most concentrated convection I have seen all week long.

[northjaxpro]

Yeah, I have been observing that area south of the MS coast this afternoon. That area is in a better environment relating to the shear. Shear is much more lighter today from the MS River Delta region west to the TX coast, which I have already pointed out and the latest shear analysis shows us.

The Apalachicola Low Pressure wave looks to be dissolving as it moves inland. However, if convection can sustain on that area back a bit farther to the southwest, and with the shear relaxing in that direction, it is possible a Low pressure wave/area could form down south/southeast of the MS River Delta region. Just a possibility though.

[NCSTORMMAN]

Yeah, I have been observing that area south of the MS coast this afternoon. That area is in a better environment relating to the shear. Shear is much more lighter today from the MS River Delta region west to the TX coast, which I have already pointed out and the latest shear analysis shows us.

The Apalachicola Low Pressure wave looks to be dissolving as it moves inland. However, if convection can sustain on that area back a bit farther to the southwest, and with the shear relaxing in that direction, it is possible a Low pressure wave/area could form down south/southeast of the MS River Delta region. Just a possibility though.

Surprised no one is talking about it but it must be because they doubt it could happen. I believe it is looking pretty TD like to me right now.

[northjaxpro]

Yeah, I have been observing that area south of the MS coast this afternoon. That area is in a better environment relating to the shear. Shear is much more lighter today from the MS River Delta region west to the TX coast, which I have already pointed out and the latest shear analysis shows us.

The Apalachicola Low Pressure wave looks to be dissolving as it moves inland. However, if convection can sustain on that area back a bit farther to the southwest, and with the shear relaxing in that direction, it is possible a Low pressure wave/area could form down south/southeast of the MS River Delta region. Just a possibility though.

Surprised no one is talking about it but it must be because they doubt it could happen. I believe it is looking pretty TD like to me right now.

I would not state that much yet about a TD like situation. It is firing convection, and have to take a few minutes to check bouys out off the MS coast to see what is going on. But, if convection can sustain and with shear slackening off over towards that area, another Low pressure wave could possibly form. If, and only if another Low pressure wave develops anyway, it would drift similarly as to what the Apalachicola Low did today, a very slow north-northeastward motion. it is just a very weak steering flow across the Northern Gulf region.

[NCSTORMMAN]

Yeah, I have been observing that area south of the MS coast this afternoon. That area is in a better environment relating to the shear. Shear is much more lighter today from the MS River Delta region west to the TX coast, which I have already pointed out and the latest shear analysis shows us.

The Apalachicola Low Pressure wave looks to be dissolving as it moves inland. However, if convection can sustain on that area back a bit farther to the southwest, and with the shear relaxing in that direction, it is possible a Low pressure wave/area could form down south/southeast of the MS River Delta region. Just a possibility though.

Surprised no one is talking about it but it must be because they doubt it could happen. I believe it is looking pretty TD like to me right now.

I would not state that much yet about a TD. It is firing convection, and have to take a few minutes to check bouys out off the MS coast to see what is going on. But, if convection can sustain and with shear slackening off over towards that area, another Low pressure wave could possibly form. If, and only if another Low pressure wave develops anyway, it would drift similarly as to what the Apalachicola Low did today, a very slow north-northeastward motion. it is just a very weak steering flow across the Northern Gulf region.

I still see circulation to the south of Apalachicola. All storms are wrapping around a circulation there and that could be where a new low forms.

[northjaxpro]

Remember, the Low pressure wave is very elongated and broad NCSTORMAN. The Low Pressure wave by plots and WPC/NHC surface analysis at 18Z (3 hours ago), and AFD from NWS Tallahassee WFO from this afternoon showed the wave had moved just inland, with the NWS TLH mets indicating that the wave was on top of the Tallahassee region.

The wave is meandering and causing extremely heavy rains across that region, already a foot of rain in parts of Dixie county in the Eastern Big Bend region.

[NCSTORMMAN]

Remember, the Low pressure wave is very elongated and broad NCSTORMAN. The Low Pressure wave by plots and surface analysis at 18Z (3 hours ago), and AFD from NWS Tallahassee WFO from this afternoon showed the wave had moved just inland, with the NWS TLH mets indicating that the wave was on top of the Tallahassee region.

The wave is meandering and causing extremely heavy rains across that region.

Well they are the experts and I am not so what they say goes.

[fwbbreeze]

It's got that feel here in the western panhandle this afternoon. Storms firing inland and moving rather quickly S/SW. I agree the axis is rather elongated....but shear appears to be improving a tad. Could get interesting.

[Frank P]

Bouys in that area of the GOM not showing much attm .. Pressures ~29.81 to 29.85, all are falling but usually do at this time... No really significant winds noted, average around 10 mph...

[northjaxpro]

Bouys in that area of the GOM not showing much attm .. Pressures ~29.81 to 29.85, all are falling but usually do at this time... No really significant winds noted, average around 10 mph...

Yeah, thanks Frank. You beat me to that. The overall pressures you stated are actually for now uniform to just off the Mississippi coast. But, still worth monitoring in the short term if the convection down to the southeast of the MS River Delta region sustains itself. Remember, shear is letting up back that way.

[Frank P]

Bouys in that area of the GOM not showing much attm .. Pressures ~29.81 to 29.85, all are falling but usually do at this time... No really significant winds noted, average around 10 mph...

Yeah, thanks Frank. You beat me to that. The overall pressures you stated are actually for now uniform to just off the Mississippi coast. But, still worth monitoring in the short term if the convection down to the southeast of the MS River Delta region sustains itself. Remember, shear is letting up back that way.

Shears continues to let up then things might get a little interesting northjaxpro, at least from the latest sat pixs the convection continues to build in the NGOM south of the MS/AL line!

[Sanibel]

Could be some convergence where it finally twists up.

[NCSTORMMAN]

I have a feeling I might of been right all along about something forming. This thing is wrapping convection and unlike a few of you I personally believe the area south of Panama City is the CoC or at least where it is wrapping convection into. Wish some pro mets would chime in.

[Frank P]

I have a feeling I might of been right all along about something forming. This thing is wrapping convection and unlike a few of you I personally believe the area south of Panama City is the CoC or at least where it is wrapping convection into. Wish some pro mets would chime in.

Only feeling I have is from a few glasses of Pinot... Have absolutely no feeling that the GOM will develop anything significant as of now... But that is why we watch it closely at this time of year!

[northjaxpro]

Exactly Frank. We already knew going into the season that we would have unfavorable conditions in the basin and it has played out that way for the most part. However, we still monitor for any subtle changes. Today, shear has reduced considerably west from about 87 degrees Longitude and points westward scross the Northern Gulf coastal region. We are now watching the area of convection firing south/southeast of the MS River Delta. Monitoring closely is what we should do anytime we have a stagnant trough across the GOM.

[Nimbus]

The upper level high is setting up over the gulf centered SSE of NOLA.
The previous high shear will now be an outflow channel for that area near the center of the dome.

Since the buoy data is showing a broad low surface pressure it would make sense that the area with the least shear would have the highest probability of system formation.

Maybe something for Monday.

Lowest surface pressure seems to be migrating southwest a little from Tyndall to buoy 42039.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php? ... _label=CDT

May be the diurnal min at 8pm we'll see.

[northjaxpro]

The upper level high is setting up over the gulf centered SSE of NOLA.
The previous high shear will now be an outflow channel for that area near the center of the dome.

Since the buoy data is showing a broad low surface pressure it would make sense that the area with the least shear would have the highest probability of system formation.

Maybe something for Monday.

Maybe Nimbus. We wait and see how the next 12-24 hours will fare .

[NDG]

The area I am watching is south of Tallahassee very close to the coast, this is where the lowest surface pressures are found, models show a narrow upper level ridge building in through the next 24-48 hrs before upper level conditions go downhill again. So if the broad low pressure can stay just offshore we may see something develop here but surface low pressure circulation is still very broad.

[northjaxpro]

Yeah NDG, that is the Low Pressure elongated wave which moved inland earlier this afternoon across the Eastern Big Bend region to near Tallahassee. But, that wave is meandering about. Good convective tops are showing in that region at this hour.