ATL: LORENZO - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[CrazyC83]

If I were to visually assign an intensity, especially considering Dvorak has been underestimating the big ones, I'd probably go with 140 kt by advisory time if this held. But that would take a big leap of faith without Recon...

Is there a Basic Dvorak image of Isabel on September 11, 2003 for comparison? (i.e. when it became a cat 5 based on Dvorak alone)

This is from 18Z September 11th, 2003. Assigned intensity was 145 kt.

https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/satellite/hursat/2003/2003249N14329/AVHRR-IR-BD/2003249N14329.ISABEL.2003.09.11.1737.128.NOAA-16.14.AVHRR-IR-BD.png

Only thing about Isabel there was the eye wasn't as warm, but the cloud tops were colder. Not too dissimilar overall though.

[CrazyC83]

 https://twitter.com/CC_StormWatch/status/1178125334979514368

[Kazmit]

I'd place my bets on 155mph for 11pm, especially if Stewart isn't on shift.

[1900hurricane]

If I were to visually assign an intensity, especially considering Dvorak has been underestimating the big ones, I'd probably go with 140 kt by advisory time if this held. But that would take a big leap of faith without Recon...

Is there a Basic Dvorak image of Isabel on September 11, 2003 for comparison? (i.e. when it became a cat 5 based on Dvorak alone)

This is from 18Z September 11th, 2003. Assigned intensity was 145 kt.

https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/satellite/hursat/2003/2003249N14329/AVHRR-IR-BD/2003249N14329.ISABEL.2003.09.11.1737.128.NOAA-16.14.AVHRR-IR-BD.png

Only thing about Isabel there was the eye wasn't as warm, but the cloud tops were colder. Not too dissimilar overall though.

Actually, Isabel's eye was much warmer, almost 20ºC.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/adt/archive2003/ISABEL-list.txt

[Ubuntwo]

This is from 18Z September 11th, 2003. Assigned intensity was 145 kt.

https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/satellite/hursat/2003/2003249N14329/AVHRR-IR-BD/2003249N14329.ISABEL.2003.09.11.1737.128.NOAA-16.14.AVHRR-IR-BD.png

Only thing about Isabel there was the eye wasn't as warm, but the cloud tops were colder. Not too dissimilar overall though.

Actually, Isabel's eye was much warmer, almost 20ºC.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/adt/archive2003/ISABEL-list.txt

Based on this Lorenzo actually has slightly colder avg tops right now

[northjaxpro]

If I were to visually assign an intensity, especially considering Dvorak has been underestimating the big ones, I'd probably go with 140 kt by advisory time if this held. But that would take a big leap of faith without Recon...

T 7.0. Lorenzo is at the brink of Cat 5.right now.

[Yellow Evan]

29/0130 UTC 24.0N 44.8W T7.0/7.0 LORENZO -- Atlantic

!!!

[abajan]

It's getting annular!

[Nancy Smar]

...LORENZO STRENGTHENS INTO A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE...

Recent satellite data indicate that Lorenzo has continued to
rapidly strengthen to an extremely dangerous category 5 hurricane
with maximum sustained winds near 160 mph (260 km/h). This
increase in intensity will be reflected in the forecast issued at
11 pm AST (0300 UTC).

[galaxy401]

!!!!

Hurricane Lorenzo Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019
1010 PM AST Sat Sep 28 2019


...LORENZO STRENGTHENS INTO A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE...

Recent satellite data indicate that Lorenzo has continued to
rapidly strengthen to an extremely dangerous category 5 hurricane
with maximum sustained winds near 160 mph (260 km/h). This
increase in intensity will be reflected in the forecast issued at
11 pm AST (0300 UTC).


SUMMARY OF 1010 PM AST...0210 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.1N 45.0W
ABOUT 1410 MI...2270 KM SW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...925 MB...27.31 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brown/Latto

[CrazyC83]

 https://twitter.com/CC_StormWatch/status/1178129715950948352

[Yellow Evan]

This is totally justified. Really good Dvorak management for lack of a better term by getting special fixes of SAB and TAFB to support a Cat 5 upgrade. I wish the NHC did this more often. Or other agencies really.

[StruThiO]

All known category five hurricanes and their tracks, pre-Lorenzo. 1851-2019

[1900hurricane]

Blew the easternmost category 5 out of the water.

[Nancy Smar]

29/0130 UTC 24.0N 44.8W T7.0/7.0 LORENZO -- Atlantic

!!!

TXNT26 KNES 290144
TCSNTL
A. 13L (LORENZO)
B. 29/0130Z
C. 24.0N
D. 44.8W
E. ONE/GOES-E
F. T7.0/7.0
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS...SPECIAL CLASSIFICATION FOR NHC. WMG EYE IS EMBEDDED IN
AND SURROUNDED BY W RESULTING IN A DT OF 7.0 AFTER 1.0 IS ADDED FOR AN
EYE ADJUSTMENT. FT IS BASED ON DT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...TURK

[Florida1118]

Second Category 5 hurricane this year. Remember a month ago when some of us were declaring the MDR closed and the season a 2013 redux? Just goes to show...you never truly know what a season holds.

[HurricaneEnzo]

WOW Lorenzo breaking records. This season has been insane!

Sent from my SM-N975U using Tapatalk

[DioBrando]

I've become a Cat 5?
I'VE BLOWN UP GUYS AAAAAA

Reckon I can make it to 170?

[gatorcane]

Seems we are getting a lot of CAT 5s lately, going back the last few years. I think we are capable of another CAT 5 this year if something gets going in the Western Caribbean.

[Yellow Evan]

For this area of the world, the CDO this has is insane.