2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[Aric Dunn]

Interesting circ just offshore SC this morning. Much more defined than any of the models..

Shear still high but once it does a little loop today. As it heads back to the coast upper winds become more divergent..

Hmmm..

[Aric Dunn]

The secondary low that the euro showed over the northern bahamas looks like a better shot as it moves to the nne

[NDG]

Interesting circ just offshore SC this morning. Much more defined than any of the models..

Shear still high but once it does a little loop today. As it heads back to the coast upper winds become more divergent..

Hmmm..

Is not so much the UL winds, is the mid level shear also from the ULL which is also in the mid levels.
Sounding from Charleston SC this morning, the weak surface circulation doesn't have a chance.

[Aric Dunn]

Interesting circ just offshore SC this morning. Much more defined than any of the models..

Shear still high but once it does a little loop today. As it heads back to the coast upper winds become more divergent..

Hmmm..

Is not so much the UL winds, is the mid level shear also from the ULL which is also in the mid levels.
Sounding from Charleston SC this morning, the weak surface circulation doesn't have a chance.
https://i.imgur.com/TqNPZsX.gif

Yeah not until tomorrow the upper low drops sw the surface low is supposed to do a loop and if the timing is right it would be moving north in the divergent reigon near the upper low. Multiple models over the past few days have been back and forth on the timing. Euro recently had it spin up just as it was moving inland.

Euro also had a possible secondary circ develop near bahamas and head NNE while moving with the shear.

I mean stranger things have happened.. seemingly yearly now.. lol

[Ubuntwo]

The 12z GFS + Euro both have some subtropical development in the North Atlantic at about a week out, both in around the same spot and intensity.

[Aric Dunn]

The 12z GFS + Euro both have some subtropical development in the North Atlantic at about a week out, both in around the same spot and intensity.
https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/289981599448039425/722165569020887110/us_model-en-087-0_modez_2020061512_186_5664_149.png
https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/289981599448039425/72216554674074434/gfs_mslp_pcpn_atl_fh138-222.gif

Yeah it comes from the secondary slow that starts to develop near the bahamas tomorrow that I mentioned previously. Slowly moves nne then accelrates. Its a complex situation with this big cut off low.over the eastern US.

[GCANE]

Strong wave coming off Africa in about 100 hrs.
GFS showing it hitting the islands in about 230 hrs.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

May need to watch for some TC development around ~40N/60W if the GFS is to be believed.

[northjaxpro]

Looking long range, I think that activity in the tropics will begin to become rather tame, especially as we head into next week and possibly through the end of June, and into the first week of July. There is a large plume of Saharian Dust about to emerge off Africa, and it will be traversing across the tropiical North Atlantic basin. This will put a lid on most waves that try to develop out there. Generally, it is still too soon for CV waves to really start developing out there anyway. Once we get past mid-July, then it is time to pay attention out that way.

So, unless that wave currently in the Southern Windwards tries to develop in the next few days, and the odds are against that happening, we are about to enter a slow time for action out there We had a very quick jump start to the season with three named storms since late May. Now, we are about to settle in for a break likely out there for the coming weeks.

[stormlover2013]

June is usually quiet anyways

[Kingarabian]

Looking long range, I think that activity in the tropics will begin to become rather tame, especially as we head into next week and possibly through the end of June, and into the first week of July. There is a large plume of Saharian Dust about to emerge off Africa, and it will be traversing across the tropiical North Atlantic basin. This will put a lid on most waves that try to develop out there. Generally, it is still too soon for CV waves to really start developing out there anyway. Once we get past mid-July, then it is time to pay attention out that way.

So, unless that wave currently in the Southern Windwards tries to develop in the next few days, and the odds are against that happening, we are about to enter a slow time for action out there We had a very quick jump start to the season with three named storms since late May. Now, we are about to settle in for a break likely out there for the coming weeks.

The wild card is the Caribbean. Over the next 2 weeks, current model solutions show all these robust AEW's spilling into the EPA -- where they appear to develop there. However it's certainly possible that one of these waves find a sweet spot in the Caribbean, especially in a 2 week span.

[Jr0d]

Interesting set up for the Bermuda high this year. If this holds up I expect a lot of fishes, though we will need to watch the storms that stay south and track through the Caribbean.

[northjaxpro]

Looking long range, I think that activity in the tropics will begin to become rather tame, especially as we head into next week and possibly through the end of June, and into the first week of July. There is a large plume of Saharian Dust about to emerge off Africa, and it will be traversing across the tropiical North Atlantic basin. This will put a lid on most waves that try to develop out there. Generally, it is still too soon for CV waves to really start developing out there anyway. Once we get past mid-July, then it is time to pay attention out that way.

So, unless that wave currently in the Southern Windwards tries to develop in the next few days, and the odds are against that happening, we are about to enter a slow time for action out there We had a very quick jump start to the season with three named storms since late May. Now, we are about to settle in for a break likely out there for the coming weeks.

The wild card is the Caribbean. Over the next 2 weeks, current model solutions show all these robust AEW's spilling into the EPA -- where they appear to develop there. However it's certainly possible that one of these waves find a sweet spot in the Caribbean, especially in a 2 week span.

We shall see. Maybe the extreme Western/NW Caribbean area by late June or early July, but I think SAL will make it difficult for any wave to develop out there over the next couple of weeks.

[Astromanía]

I think is EPAC time

[TheStormExpert]

Interesting set up for the Bermuda high this year. If this holds up I expect a lot of fishes, though we will need to watch the storms that stay south and track through the Caribbean.

What Bermuda High!?

[toad strangler]

Interesting set up for the Bermuda high this year. If this holds up I expect a lot of fishes, though we will need to watch the storms that stay south and track through the Caribbean.

So you expect normal Atlantic Basin tropical tracks. "fishes" as you call them, are Atlantic Basin climatology and it's not saying much or going out on a limb to call for this. Although I'm sure many of our Eastern based island folks won't be too fond of what most Western continental peeps describe as "fishes"

[Ubuntwo]

Interesting set up for the Bermuda high this year. If this holds up I expect a lot of fishes, though we will need to watch the storms that stay south and track through the Caribbean.

The bermuda high isn't a static barrier, nor has one even set up.

[TheStormExpert]

Interesting set up for the Bermuda high this year. If this holds up I expect a lot of fishes, though we will need to watch the storms that stay south and track through the Caribbean.

So you expect normal Atlantic Basin tropical tracks. "fishes" as you call them, are Atlantic Basin climatology and it's not saying much or going out on a limb to call for this. Although I'm sure many of our Eastern based island folks won't be too fond of what most Western continental peeps describe as "fishes"

I agree to the first part but I think everyone knows that a “Fish Storm” goes harmlessly out to sea without affecting anyone but the fishes and shipping interest.

[Nimbus]

Looking long range, I think that activity in the tropics will begin to become rather tame, especially as we head into next week and possibly through the end of June, and into the first week of July. There is a large plume of Saharian Dust about to emerge off Africa, and it will be traversing across the tropiical North Atlantic basin. This will put a lid on most waves that try to develop out there. Generally, it is still too soon for CV waves to really start developing out there anyway. Once we get past mid-July, then it is time to pay attention out that way.

So, unless that wave currently in the Southern Windwards tries to develop in the next few days, and the odds are against that happening, we are about to enter a slow time for action out there We had a very quick jump start to the season with three named storms since late May. Now, we are about to settle in for a break likely out there for the coming weeks.

The wild card is the Caribbean. Over the next 2 weeks, current model solutions show all these robust AEW's spilling into the EPA -- where they appear to develop there. However it's certainly possible that one of these waves find a sweet spot in the Caribbean, especially in a 2 week span.

We shall see. Maybe the extreme Western/NW Caribbean area by late June or early July, but I think SAL will make it difficult for any wave to develop out there over the next couple of weeks.

Convection building off the coast of Honduras this morning but nothing in the models.

[NDG]

I don't think models will show much if anything in the Atlantic over the next 7-14 days, once they start getting within range of early to mid July that's when they will start lighting up.