ATL: IDA - Models

[tolakram]

HWRF way ahead of last run

[Frank P]

18z HWRF looks way north and east of 12z run thru 48h, and stronger too

[IcyTundra]

Interesting that the HMON has it going over the western tip of Cuba like the GFS but is tracking it further west than the GFS after that.

[cheezyWXguy]

So the GEFS very much has SETX still in play with many members also focusing on that area. But they are starting to cluster a lot more than previous runs. A little concerning.

From what I can see, there are 3 distinct clusters. The first cluster is the fastest, and shoots up to Louisiana, following the op. The second one is slower, and further to the west, centered near the tx/la border, with several members on the tx side. The third one is the slowest, and bends the furthest west, then bends back north favoring Texas. This is concerning if you’re in Texas or SW Louisiana, because the first cluster and the op are way too fast.

Take a look at the discussion thread. It does appear to be developing faster and more north at the moment. This would mean that the models picking up on a more easterly path might be right. I'm skeptical with you about the speed but so far, it could be right.

I get that, but initialization is fairly consistent between the 12z and 18z. The difference doesn’t really manifest itself until about 60 hours. It just seems off

[IcyTundra]

From what I can see, there are 3 distinct clusters. The first cluster is the fastest, and shoots up to Louisiana, following the op. The second one is slower, and further to the west, centered near the tx/la border, with several members on the tx side. The third one is the slowest, and bends the furthest west, then bends back north favoring Texas. This is concerning if you’re in Texas or SW Louisiana, because the first cluster and the op are way too fast.

Take a look at the discussion thread. It does appear to be developing faster and more north at the moment. This would mean that the models picking up on a more easterly path might be right. I'm skeptical with you about the speed but so far, it could be right.

I get that, but initialization is fairly consistent between the 12z and 18z. The difference doesn’t really manifest itself until about 60 hours. It just seems off

Look at the latest HMON. It develops 99L faster than the GFS and takes it over the western tip of Cuba like the GFS but then takes it further west. Don't think 99L will be able to gain latitude as fast as the GFS is showing.

[tolakram]

HWRF over western Cuba

[tolakram]

[Hypercane_Kyle]

The GFS has been consistently correcting in the short-term towards a stronger vort further east.

I don't think I've seen this type of consensus for a significant Gulf Coast strike since Michael either.

[cheezyWXguy]

The GFS has been consistently correcting in the short-term towards a stronger vort further east.

I don't think I've seen this type of consensus for a significant Gulf Coast strike since Michael either.

https://i.imgur.com/NBFz4LS.gif

Are you saying that it’s moving the vort east or that it is making the east vort more dominant? I would agree with the latter.

[supercane4867]

HWRF might go below 940mb for peak this run

[tolakram]

89W is the tip of the LA boot.

[IcyTundra]

According to HMON,HWRF, GEFS mean, and 12Z ECMWF the 18Z GFS is a far east outlier. Just don't think it is realistic for 99L to gain latitude as fast as the GFS wants it to.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

The GFS has been consistently correcting in the short-term towards a stronger vort further east.

I don't think I've seen this type of consensus for a significant Gulf Coast strike since Michael either.

https://i.imgur.com/NBFz4LS.gif

Are you saying that it’s moving the vort east or that it is making the east vort more dominant? I would agree with the latter.

East vort more dominant, as a result of earlier development.

IMHO, 99L might be already on the verge of being a TD right now.

[tolakram]

[tolakram]

[SoupBone]

[BobHarlem]

18z HMON

[captainbarbossa19]

Looks like the HWRF has shifted east by more than 100 miles on approach to landfall. These 18z models just seem too extreme to buy into them. I want the 0z runs to confirm that this is a trend before I consider buying.

[sma10]

It's been a very long time since we've seen a Camille-like August genesis and track. Overdue, unfortunately.

[tolakram]