98L Invest Caribbean,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[tracyswfla]

HERRRRRES Charley...according to the 12z euro

<a href="http://imageshack.us"><img src="http://img89.imageshack.us/img89/8584/12zeuro9ac.gif" border="0" width="774" alt="Image Hosted by ImageShack.us" /></a>

Holy Crap it's coming right for us!

[mike815]

i know

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL982005) ON 20051015 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
051015 1800 051016 0600 051016 1800 051017 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 17.6N 78.6W 18.0N 79.6W 18.2N 80.5W 18.0N 81.3W
BAMM 17.6N 78.6W 18.0N 79.6W 18.2N 80.5W 17.7N 81.1W
A98E 17.6N 78.6W 17.6N 79.0W 17.6N 79.8W 17.3N 80.6W
LBAR 17.6N 78.6W 18.0N 79.2W 19.2N 79.4W 20.0N 79.4W
SHIP 30KTS 40KTS 50KTS 60KTS
DSHP 30KTS 40KTS 50KTS 60KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
051017 1800 051018 1800 051019 1800 051020 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 17.5N 82.3W 16.4N 84.7W 15.5N 87.4W 15.2N 90.4W
BAMM 16.9N 81.8W 15.0N 83.8W 13.1N 86.8W 11.8N 90.3W
A98E 16.9N 81.6W 15.8N 83.6W 15.0N 85.8W 13.8N 88.2W
LBAR 21.3N 78.9W 24.6N 76.3W 29.1N 70.6W 32.4N 62.7W
SHIP 68KTS 81KTS 82KTS 75KTS
DSHP 68KTS 81KTS 82KTS 75KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 17.6N LONCUR = 78.6W DIRCUR = 260DEG SPDCUR = 3KT
LATM12 = 17.8N LONM12 = 77.6W DIRM12 = 255DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 18.2N LONM24 = 76.6W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1004MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 220NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM


The 18:00z Bams model guidance.

[WindRunner]

Ooooh, 1004. Looking better, too.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

They will find Wilma with 40 mph...1002 mililbars pressure. This will tie 1933.

[Recurve]

Can I say it? Noooooo!!!!

All the mid-Oct to Nov storms we've seen come up from the Carib to the Keys have been mercifully weak -- Floyd '87 etc.

Here's a view of all storms in Oct and Nov in this area of the Caribbean since 1980 (some were Atlantic storms moving through):

[StormFury]

Yeah, umm, does the name Michelle ring a bell? That was a category 4 as it moved past Cuba and just missed the SE Florida coast! Not too long ago either, how about sometime around 2000.

[THead]

You don't have to be a Meaty-Urologist to know there's something brewing in the tropics, just walk outside in s. fla and look up and around, you'll see the signs.

[Recurve]

Yep, here's Michelle.



Not sure why my first query missed that; thought it included anything in that area. Checking for later years.

[wxmann_91]

Can you see the turning and the new bursts of convection that have just developed?

(careful, Java)
http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurr.html

Click on the area just south of Jamaica and then animate.

IMO once the recon goes in I think there will be a TD.

(edited for bad link)

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

It has the looks of a storm that could very well fellow the Gfdl. Stronger upper level high+light shear. Warm SST over the Caribbean. You can plainly see that it has a strong LLC over the pass few hours. This makes alot of tropical storms look like a evening showing. I would not be suprized by the strength of the LLC alone. That there is tropical storm force winds.

[Ivanhater]

It has the looks of a storm that could very well fellow the Gfdl. Stronger upper level high+light shear. Warm SST over the Caribbean. You can plainly see that it has a strong LLC over the pass few hours. This makes alot of tropical storms look like a evening showing. I would not be suprized by the strength of the LLC alone. That there is tropical storm force winds.

imo, it will be wilma soon, not sure if it will by the time recon gets into it, but soon

[THead]

You can really see her starting to feed on those warm waters now, especially on the southern and eastern sides.

[Weatherboy1]

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE APPEARS TO BE THE BIGGEST FACTOR IN THE
WEATHER LATE NEXT WEEK. 4 OF THE 10 GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE NOW
BRINGING SYSTEM NORTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO LATE IN
THE WEEK. THE EUROPEAN AND CANADIAN MODELS HAVE BEEN POINTING
TOWARD ROUGHLY THIS SCENARIO FOR AT LEAST 24 HOURS NOW. THIS
CREATES MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE FORECAST ON THURSDAY,
FRIDAY, AND SATURDAY. REFER TO THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
PRODUCTS FOR FURTHER UPDATES

Yesterday, the Miami NWS discussion just highlighted the fact there would be a low in the Caribbean for the foreseeable future. Today, the discussion mentions both the Euro and CMC forecasts (plus some of the GFS model variations) that call for a stronger system to eventually make landfall or move very close to the South FL peninsula. Definitely worth watching around here, especially given the time of year it is. Six years ago today, Irene was very close to making landfall in the Everglades and she was much weaker than Wilma-to-be COULD get, based on some of these model runs.

-Mike

[THead]

15/1145 UTC 17.7N 77.1W T1.5/1.5 98 -- Atlantic Ocean

Ummm..That's a depression the other 23 times this year..

t numbers alone dont make a TD, have to have a closed low.

I think its closed already...Similar to the Badgers seaon...LOL

Bah humbug, a win is a win is a win!! Badgers preserve the Axe AND their season!!!

[stormandan28]

The lady just now said the likely path would be towards central america.

[artist]

which lady??

[stormandan28]

but the other black woman forgot her name.

[stormandan28]

Betty Davis

[Ivanhater]

Betty Davis

well if she said it would then it must be true